Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

So Elon says that Tesla will reveal a dedicated robotaxi vehicle on 8/8. What do you think we will see? Will it look like this concept art or something else?

I will say that while this concept drawing looks super cool, I am a bit skeptical if it is practical as a robotaxi. It looks to only have 2 seats which would be fine for 1-2 people who need a ride but would not work for more than 2 people. I feel like that would limit the robotaxis value for a lot of people. Also, it would likely need a steering wheel and pedals for regulatory reasons even if Tesla did achieve eyes-off capability.

So I think this is concept art for a hypothetical 2 seater, cheap Tesla, not a robotaxi.

Could the robotaxi look more like this concept art but smaller? It could look a bit more like say the Zoox vehicle or the Cruise Origin, more futuristic box like shape IMO and seat 5-6 people.

Or maybe the robotaxi will look more like the "model 2" concept:

Other questions:
- Will the robotaxis be available to own by individuals as a personal car or will it strictly be owned by Tesla and only used in a ride-hailing network?
- What will cost be?
- Will it have upgraded hardware? Radar? Lidar? additional compute?
- Will Elon reveal any details on how the ride-hailing network will work?

Thoughts? Let the fun speculation begin!

 

[jebinc]

So Elon says that Tesla will reveal a dedicated robotaxi vehicle on 8/8. What do you think we will see? Will it look like this concept art or something else?

I will say that while this concept drawing looks super cool, I am a bit skeptical if it is practical as a robotaxi. It looks to only have 2 seats which would be fine for 1-2 people who need a ride but would not work for more than 2 people. I feel like that would limit the robotaxis value for a lot of people. Also, it would likely need a steering wheel and pedals for regulatory reasons even if Tesla did achieve eyes-off capability.

So I think this is concept art for a hypothetical 2 seater, cheap Tesla, not a robotaxi.

Could the robotaxi look more like this concept art but smaller? It could look a bit more like say the Zoox vehicle or the Cruise Origin, more futuristic box like shape IMO and seat 5-6 people.

Or maybe the robotaxi will look more like the "model 2" concept:

Other questions:
- Will the robotaxis be available to own by individuals as a personal car or will it strictly be owned by Tesla and only used in a ride-hailing network?
- What will cost be?
- Will it have upgraded hardware? Radar? Lidar? additional compute?
- Will Elon reveal any details on how the ride-hailing network will work?

Thoughts? Let the fun speculation begin!

I will predict will be a very limited geofenced solution in the short-term, with bold and outlandish statements about what’s to come (i.e., lots of BS flowing from Elon’s mouth, like when the Cybertruck launched and when they released that “faked” FSD video, years back).

When the stock and or sales tank, Elon always tries to prop it up with outlandish and unfulfilled promises about the “mind-blowing” greatness that is just around the corner.

This cartoon is an FSD example how comical his statements are often viewed.

 

[Joey D]

Why cancel the M2 - which is an almost certain win for traditional/normal consumers who buy up Corollas/Civics/Sentras/etc. by the millions?

My theory is that the M2 for the US is on some kind of holding pattern...but for international markets it will be coming soon after Robotaxi for the US. The following reasons:

1) In the US, I believe most consumers would just as soon purchased a "used" Model 3, compared to a "sub-compact" new model 2 for the same price. Model 3 is already about the same size as Civic / Sentra.

2) Internationally (Europe, Far East, India), a sub-compact makes a lot more sense. However, even there, it will likely need to compete with Chinese vehicles.

3) Tesla can use Austin as the "pilot" production line for Next Gen. The volume of "robotaxis" needed will be low, especially at first, so a slow ramp of the unboxed process is not a big issue.

4) Once Tesla has learned enough about ramping the Unboxed Process, they can then go full-bore on a large-scale "Driver based" model 2 in Mexico, India...Berlin, China...wherever it makes sense.

All IMO of course.

 

[jebinc]

I predict dancers in costumes designed to look like robot taxis, doing performance art on stage.

Yep, just like the Tesla Bot unveil… and BS comments the great Charlatan spouted during AI day last year (IIRC) - Where he stated that 100% of the value in $TSLA is not cars, but rather the Tesla Bot. What a Charlatan the guy is.

Sadly, many here fall for it and defend, rationalize and/or promote his narrative and actions. To each!

 

[Joey D]

Yep, just like the Tesla Bot unveil… and BS comments the great Charlatan spouted during AI day last year (IIRC) - Where he stated that 100% of the value in $TSLA is not cars, but rather the Tesla Bot. What a Charlatan the guy is.

To be fair, he has said that all of these things;
1) Energy Business
2) Automation / Robotaxi
3) Bot

Will make the auto business look like a rounding error. If Tesla can execute, he will be proven correct.

Sadly, many here fall for it and defend, rationalize and/or promote his narrative and actions. To each!

There is a difference between recognizing the potential of those businesses, and assuming any of those three items are "done deals."

 

[gsmith123]

Which do you all think will happen first?

L3 operation for Tesla owners (with a very restrictive ODD, like Mercedes)
or
L4 operation by Tesla owned vehicles (within a small geofenced area, similar in scope to Waymo), while FSD for owners remains L2

I assume eventually one of these has to happen (unless Tesla gives up).

 

[Joey D]

Which do you all think will happen first?

L3 operation for Tesla owners (with a very restrictive ODD, like Mercedes)
or
L4 operation by Tesla owned vehicles (within a small geofenced area, similar in scope to Waymo), while FSD for owners remains L2

I assume eventually one of these has to happen (unless Tesla gives up).

As a Tesla owner, I hope L3 operation on the highway happens first...because I would use that regularly on long road trips.

As a TSLA investor, I hope L4 comes first, as that will open the earnings floodgates.

I am actually guessing a combination of the two will happen first: L3 operation in geofenced areas supervised by Tesla employees....then that will expand to L4 after satisfying jurisdictional requirements.

 

[gsmith123]

L3 operation in geofenced areas supervised by Tesla employees

But isn't that simply L2 operation in advance of launching driverless testing in an area? There is no "supervised" L3 operation (and paying an employee to sit in the car without being responsible for the car or even requiring them to pay attention isn't very useful).

To be clear, I do expect Tesla to do the gist of what you're suggesting - it's just that if the employee is supervising that's just normal L2 operation. Tesla already does this with employees worldwide. For all we know they may have specific cities in mind for future driverless operation and be actively evaluate how close they are in those specific areas.

 

[enemji]

Space travel is expensive too?

Yes. Fair is fair.

The robo driver has to rely on visuals/ radar for safety as it goes around the next bend as do humans.

I had an idea what the massive data centre could be aiming at. Real time reportage of map to actual footage discrepancies and driver interventions pinging back to other Teslas in the area. You can 'cheat' your way to a very much safer car in environments with lots of Teslas running around partially autopiloted. Those same cars are just as naive out in the country all on their own.

I had to make it clear because every human driver and his/her/they/their/it navigator does a walkthrough of the racetrack/rallyroad to familiarize themselves before the race

 

[BBTX]

I think robotaxi reveal will be a more mini-bus-shaped vehicle built on the same platform and technology as the Model 2. Probably just a prototype one-off build.

I think that, software-wise, they're still aiming to give all the AP3+ vehicles L3-4 capabilities first. To be clear, by L3 I mean "Can drive itself while you read a book, but requires a steering wheel and a licensed driver to take over control within X seconds while it gracefully slows / pulls over, in some corner cases", and by L4 I mean "Can drive itself without ever needing takeover, but only limited ODDs such as limited-access, major highways". I think after they reach this L3-4-ish stage with the AP3+ cars on the road, they'll deploy the same stack with additional cameras and sensors as L4-5 on the robotaxi.

 

[Joey D]

But isn't that simply L2 operation in advance of launching driverless testing in an area?

It's close...but L3 means the supervisor only needs to respond if the car asks. Tat his important from a liability stance, and also probably important to demonstrate that the car "understands" when it has low confidence for eventual Level 4 operation when it must stop driving safely.

* An L2 car does not need to ask the user to intervene in low confidence situations. The user must proactively intervene: The user is responsible for accidents at all times.
* An L3 car will ask the user to take over in low confidence situations. The "car" is responsible for accidents while driving.
* An L4 car does not need a driver and must pull - over / disable driving in a low confidence situation. The "car" is always responsible.

There is no "supervised" L3 operation (and paying an employee to sit in the car without being responsible for the car or even requiring them to pay attention isn't very useful).

To be clear, I do expect Tesla to do the gist of what you're suggesting - it's just that if the employee is supervising that's just normal L2 operation. Tesla already does this with employees worldwide. For all we know they may have specific cities in mind for future driverless operation and be actively evaluate how close they are in those specific areas.

I see what you're saying...but I also expect that when L4 is granted, Tesla will still have employees supervising L4 for a little time . It will be interesting to see the approach for sure!

 

[kpanda17]

Near term (Late 2024), like Waymo, geo fenced Tesla owned/oper hailed Robos with a supervised observing driver, once qualified, autonomous with no driver
Near term (Late 2024), Tesla private vehicle owners allowed L3 while observing inside, no nag, no sleeping allowed, no hands on, but must be able to take over

Mid term (2025), more deployments across the country, each Tesla owned/operated Robo geo fenced, with driver removed once approved for that city

Long term (Early 2026), broad Tesla owned robos in many US and other international cities operating autonomously
Long term (Mid 2026), Tesla private owners can make their vehicles available for the Tesla run ride sharing, these would be away from the Tesla owned operational areas, autonomously
(example, NY metro area would be Tesla operated and in the suburbs private Tesla owned vehicles would operate)

Btw, Late 2025 M2 $20-25K (same platform as Robo but looks different to maintain appeal) is offered for sale, lease to the public world wide
Think Franz and Lars has the vehicle ready, but with the hybrid distraction and interest rates high, its not the time to release

2024-2025 Robo
2025-2026 M2

 

[jebinc]

It's close...but L3 means the supervisor only needs to respond if the car asks. Tat his important from a liability stance, and also probably important to demonstrate that the car "understands" when it has low confidence for eventual Level 4 operation when it must stop driving safely.

* An L2 car does not need to ask the user to intervene in low confidence situations. The user must proactively intervene: The user is responsible for accidents at all times.
* An L3 car will ask the user to take over in low confidence situations. The "car" is responsible for accidents while driving.
* An L4 car does not need a driver and must pull - over / disable driving in a low confidence situation. The "car" is always responsible.


I see what you're saying...but I also expect that when L4 is granted, Tesla will still have employees supervising L4 for a little time . It will be interesting to see the approach for sure!

@diplomat33 Time for a “primer reminder” link.

 

[electricar]

Elon is master showman but the only thing that really matters about FSD is when Tesla takes Full Legal Responsibility ( FLR ) for it - until then it is all happy talk.

 

[spacecoin]

Agree to disagree here. A decade ago, people thought the "current state" of AI (LLMs, generating video, etc.) was also "multiple decades out." Disruption and innovation happens fast.

There is a big difference between generative AI and a regulated safety critical application space.

If someone was injured every time a generative AI got it wrong, it would be banned. It’s not designed for correctness. It’s designed for creativity.

Why do you think Ai for cancer diagnosis from still images is not yet unsupervised?

 

[spacecoin]

Near term (Late 2024), like Waymo, geo fenced Tesla owned/oper hailed Robos with a supervised observing driver, once qualified, autonomous with no driver
Near term (Late 2024), Tesla private vehicle owners allowed L3 while observing inside, no nag, no sleeping allowed, no hands on, but must be able to take over

Mid term (2025), more deployments across the country, each Tesla owned/operated Robo geo fenced, with driver removed once approved for that city

Long term (Early 2026), broad Tesla owned robos in many US and other international cities operating autonomously
Long term (Mid 2026), Tesla private owners can make their vehicles available for the Tesla run ride sharing, these would be away from the Tesla owned operational areas, autonomously
(example, NY metro area would be Tesla operated and in the suburbs private Tesla owned vehicles would operate)

Btw, Late 2025 M2 $20-25K (same platform as Robo but looks different to maintain appeal) is offered for sale, lease to the public world wide
Think Franz and Lars has the vehicle ready, but with the hybrid distraction and interest rates high, its not the time to release

2024-2025 Robo
2025-2026 M2

I will match any bet from any amount of people that by the end of 2026 Tesla won’t have a single robotaxi charging for rides anywhere on public roads.

 

[David Wang]

I will match any bet from any amount of people that by the end of 2026 Tesla won’t have a single robotaxi charging for rides anywhere on public roads.

Does whole mars catalog have an account on here.

Is there a bigger Tesla stan than him?

 

[Kablooie]

I wonder if Musk expects BYD to take over the EV market soon so he is putting his energies in his primary advantage which is FSD. The robo taxi would showcase Teslas one unique feature that is unlikely to be emulated. They could also be deployed anywhere, not just in pre-scanned locations, which is a requirement for all the other systems.

 

[mborkow]

There is a big difference between generative AI and a regulated safety critical application space.

Serious: if we had a car crash with every hallucination it would be a class action lawyer’s wet dream.

 

[spacecoin]

Does whole mars catalog have an account on here.

Is there a bigger Tesla stan than him?

I already have a friendly bet with WholeMarsCatalog from 1.5 years back that Tesla wouldn't be any form of Level 3 anywhere by September 2024.
He would allow me to change his Twitter bio to whatever I wanted for a year if Tesla wasn't L3 by then. I doubt he'll honor it.

The official Teslascope account took the same bet one month later. The stupidity is simply fascinating.

 

[Joey D]

I already have a friendly bet with WholeMarsCatalog from 1.5 years back that Tesla wouldn't be any form of Level 3 anywhere by September 2024.
He would allow me to change his Twitter bio to whatever I wanted for a year if Tesla wasn't L3 by then. I doubt he'll honor it.

The official Teslascope account took the same bet one month later. The stupidity is simply fascinating.

I would not have taken that bet...and I roll my eyes as much as most (said so in this post) when it comes to WholeMarsCatalog pimping of FSD.

Curious though...what was your side of the wager?

As for this:

I will match any bet from any amount of people that by the end of 2026 Tesla won’t have a single robotaxi charging for rides anywhere on public roads.

I may be interested, but would have to flesh out exact terms.
1) Any tesla vehicle (or just the next gen robotaxi vehicle which has not yet been announced?)
2) Must be Tesla owned? Or can it be any company utilizing Tesla vehicles / software?
3) Must actually be charging for rides? (Not just free?)