For fully diluted shares out, see the third quarter press release. For the three months 9/30/15, the diluted shares out are 142,747 on the column that shows profitability. However, that calculation is made without the full weighting of the new shares from the offering, which took place in the middle of the third quarter. Including all of the new shares from the offering, recent stock options issuance, and a higher stock price consistent with your 40 billion cap target, the fully diluted count should be more like 148-149 million, not 130 million. Assuming your $40 billion cap estimate is correct, the stock price would be $268 rather than $308 -- still a nice move from here, but a difference nonetheless.
On the more important issues, the bad news on the X roll-out is already baked into the current stock price. I guess it could get worse, but I'm assuming the incremental news there will be positive rather than negative. I do think the timing of the referral program was intentional, but regardless of the reason they got a sales lift, which they will be comping against fall 2016. Also, why offer a better deal on financed cars recently if there is no need to try to increase S demand? If I had more confidence on the durability of S demand over the next two years, I would be very bullish rather than simply positive on the stock at these levels.