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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass investing TSLA
jhm
Well-Known Member
I am quite bullish on stationary storage, but there are two other considerations. The gross margin on batteries for Tesla vehicles will likely be higher than for Powerpacks and Powerwalls. So a Gigafactory is worth doing for a mix of auto and stationary packs, but not exclusively for stationary (or everybody would be building one).
Second, I'm not sure that the tooling for Powerpacks and Powerwalls is the same for auto packs. If they are different, then you can't cheaply switch from one to the other on the same line. So the investment in lines for auto packs definitely needs to wait until the auto packs are needed.
So a big question in my mind is what fraction of the first Gigafactory is still set aside for auto packs. Originally it was 35 GWh, leaving just 15GWh for stationary. But with all this enthusiasm about Powerwalls, it seems this could shift. Either we need more capacity in the Sparks campus or another GF campus. I'd sure like Musk to tells us what the plan is. I don't think we can back away from 35 GWh for auto. So if we are really going for stationary, we need to commit capital to more capacity. So yes, I'm quite bullish, which is why I want more capacity.
If Musk were one to play the shorts to finance the second Gigafactory, I could see lack luster performance in Q3 setting a bear trap for a blow out in early Q1, leading to an opportunistic capital raise at an ATH above $350. But of course, Musk does not play such games.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
While Tesla Motors is in deep trouble <irony here> for sure for the next years as there is (to sum up some press articles and forum posts):
- no demand
- sticker price too high or too low
- vehicles not attracting enough customers
- not leading tech any more
- fear of a cold winter 2015/2016
- nosecone gone
- Tesla Motors loosing money on every car they make
- not enough food at Model X reveal event (Tesla Motors shame on you!)
- Tesla Motors only a toy of a crazy billionaire
- there are soooo many other cars better & cheaper currently available at other companies right now (like Apple)
Traditional car companies are the way to go in the future:
They are doing really good and do not have such issues as bad as Tesla Motors currently has.
There is a raid currently going on at Volkswagen Group offices in Wolfsburg, Braunschweig and other cities in Germany (link, google translate)!
- Prosecuters and state criminal police searching for analogue and digital documents at Volkswagen Group offices as well as at private appartments of Volkswagen employees for proof who was involved in this exhaust fraud.
- Now there is proof that Volkswagen Group wrote special piece of SW to detect NEFZ cycles and other cycles in Europe in addition to the SW detecting US cycles (link).
- Prosecuters do not like that there are news about exhaust gate every day and Volkswagen Group does not fully admit what they have done with this exhaust gate.
- Volkswagen US manager Michael Horn is invited to Congress in Washington today
- Horn informed the Congress further that VW had withdrawn the application for authorization for the vehicles of the model year 2016 in the US.
- no demand
- sticker price too high or too low
- vehicles not attracting enough customers
- not leading tech any more
- fear of a cold winter 2015/2016
- nosecone gone
- Tesla Motors loosing money on every car they make
- not enough food at Model X reveal event (Tesla Motors shame on you!)
- Tesla Motors only a toy of a crazy billionaire
- there are soooo many other cars better & cheaper currently available at other companies right now (like Apple)
Traditional car companies are the way to go in the future:
They are doing really good and do not have such issues as bad as Tesla Motors currently has.
There is a raid currently going on at Volkswagen Group offices in Wolfsburg, Braunschweig and other cities in Germany (link, google translate)!
- Prosecuters and state criminal police searching for analogue and digital documents at Volkswagen Group offices as well as at private appartments of Volkswagen employees for proof who was involved in this exhaust fraud.
- Now there is proof that Volkswagen Group wrote special piece of SW to detect NEFZ cycles and other cycles in Europe in addition to the SW detecting US cycles (link).
- Prosecuters do not like that there are news about exhaust gate every day and Volkswagen Group does not fully admit what they have done with this exhaust gate.
- Volkswagen US manager Michael Horn is invited to Congress in Washington today
- Horn informed the Congress further that VW had withdrawn the application for authorization for the vehicles of the model year 2016 in the US.
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Hilton announced a major EV charging program, stating goal of deploying EV charging stations in 50 US hotels by end of 2015, expanding to 100 hotels by 2016.
ev-enthusiast, You make a good point. There are quite a bit of contradictions to what people are complaining about.
On a different note though, the implied comparison to VW, or other companies is not that relevant. The pessimistic mood is 'relative to' expectations. Tesla has sky high expectations, with some (shorts might say - lot) of the expectations already priced in. If tesla doesn't stand up to these expectations the mood goes sour, the stock falls a bit. In the long run it doesn't matter at all. This volatility is just part of the game. But nevertheless in a short term perspective, the pessimistic mood and the price-reaction is valid/legitimate (imho).
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On the other hand VW is doomed. The P/E of 5.39 says as much.
Market is clearly pricing that VW is in a bad state. Maybe not completely pricing in all the badness and the potential to go bankrupt (which I think is likely) but it is certainly not pricing VW the same way as Tesla.
On a different note though, the implied comparison to VW, or other companies is not that relevant. The pessimistic mood is 'relative to' expectations. Tesla has sky high expectations, with some (shorts might say - lot) of the expectations already priced in. If tesla doesn't stand up to these expectations the mood goes sour, the stock falls a bit. In the long run it doesn't matter at all. This volatility is just part of the game. But nevertheless in a short term perspective, the pessimistic mood and the price-reaction is valid/legitimate (imho).
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On the other hand VW is doomed. The P/E of 5.39 says as much.
Market is clearly pricing that VW is in a bad state. Maybe not completely pricing in all the badness and the potential to go bankrupt (which I think is likely) but it is certainly not pricing VW the same way as Tesla.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Thank's for your post.
I agree, comparisons are always tricky and especially in this case with Volkswagen Group and Tesla Motors.
These two companies are very different, I think I don't have to talk about the differences here.
While I agree that expectations and mood and not only financial figures might have an impact on a SP of any company, I have the impression that in this case this impact is pretty big.
As far as I know there was no material news out after the Model X Founders first deliveries and the SP declined drastically even days before the event.
There was even positive news out, like demand for Model S and X accelerating, or first deliveries finally taking place!
If they had postponed the Model X Founders first deliveries event, I would have expected such a SP reaction, but given the context I have the impression that this is overblown.
Just a simple question, not personally of course:
In case you bought shares on September 23rd at $261 what changed your mind that you decide to sell these share for $225 now?
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ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Yes agreed, clearly a buying opportunity. But unfortunately I am tapped out
No buying opportunity for me here as such wild SP swings on so little information makes it too difficult for me to put my money in the stock.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Update on Volkswagen Group exhaust fraud:
Volkswagen US boss Michael Horn in Congress admitting that he knew about this exhaust fraud only since this September (link, sorry video in German only).
Blaming "a bunch of SW engineers" for putting the SW to work.
Pretends that no management was involved.
But as fas as we know there was a second group of SW engineers at work in Germany programming the SW to detect European test cycles like NEFZ.
Looks like criminal investigations will take several days.
Investigators now have a room on their own in the Volkswagen offices.
This will get again more interesting during the next days.
Volkswagen US boss Michael Horn in Congress admitting that he knew about this exhaust fraud only since this September (link, sorry video in German only).
Blaming "a bunch of SW engineers" for putting the SW to work.
Pretends that no management was involved.
But as fas as we know there was a second group of SW engineers at work in Germany programming the SW to detect European test cycles like NEFZ.
Looks like criminal investigations will take several days.
Investigators now have a room on their own in the Volkswagen offices.
This will get again more interesting during the next days.
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Incredible new ICE innovation has me worried about EVs: Castrol made a thingy where you can change the oil in your car in 90 seconds by just removing a box. It could be available in five years. I think we've found what has been weighing on TSLA stock price lately.
Oil changes in 90 seconds? Castrol claims breakthrough
"The new system, which Castrol has dubbed Nexcel, must be integrated into vehicle engines at the design stage. That means it won't hit mainstream cars for another five years — about the length of time between major model changes for many automakers."
Oil changes in 90 seconds? Castrol claims breakthrough
"The new system, which Castrol has dubbed Nexcel, must be integrated into vehicle engines at the design stage. That means it won't hit mainstream cars for another five years — about the length of time between major model changes for many automakers."
I've never heard anyone make the case that avoiding oil changes is in the top 10 reasons why EVs are better than ICE. And even in the "innovation" you cite, one isn't avoiding oil changes, they just take less time at the shop. I'd still have to find an hour to drive to the shop, have the work done, pay for it, and drive home; and the cost is probably going to be similar. Tesla vehicles have no oil to change, and no amount of innovation is going to improve on that.
I am quite certain the original post was sarcasm. Can't tell if you're being sarcastic as well, but not doing oil changes definitely is in my top ten reasons for owning an EV. They are such a hassle, especially if, like me, you only take newer vehicles to the dealer, which is 30 minutes away. By the time they do the change, it's nearly two hours out of my day, not to mention $50 or $60 down the drain.
ludicrousspeed
Member
Interesting that after decades of operating, Ferrari is now choosing to go public. IMO this decision to raise additional funds is for a transition to electric. Who knows, but looks like they might be joining the EV party.
My understanding is that Ferrari isn't getting any of the funds. Fiat Chrysler is selling part of their stake and distributing the proceeds to existing shareholders.
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