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Is this the end?

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What happened this week made me very uncomfortable. Tesla had to pay back more than $900 million which coincided with the announcement of the standard Model 3. Tesla always maintained that they were production constrained. Demand remained high even when standard range M3 was not available yet. Why come now with standard M3 when they said it would be the middle of the year.

Now standard M3 is available and deliverable within weeks. How can that be? If you have still a high demand of higher priced M3's and you are production constrained, why come with a lower price M3 which will obviously have lower margins?

Than the price slash of Model S and X. How can this happen? How can they remain producing them with these prices and still remain profitable?

Slashed prices for current owners to upgrade EAP and FSD. Desperate for cash? Again coincides with huge payment of over $900 million

Than closing of stores.

All in all it looks like a closing sale to me. Everything must go. Take it while you can!

Any thoughts? Am I too negative?

Sales and production of Model 3 is actually looking pretty awesome. Bringing in the $35k base model hits a major company mission objective, generates global headlines and scares the *sugar* out of the likes of GM and Ford! The closing of many expensive shopping mall stores makes sense too in making the lower cost models sustainable.

Price slashing high performance Model S and X is an interesting move. The P models were always considered to be over-priced toys for those with money to burn and now they are about to compete directly with the likes of the brand new Porsche Taycan. This bold move now leaves a major headache for Porsche in pricing up the various performance levels of the Taycan. The base price of the standard Model S/X hasn't really changed much and before the price cut they were actually starting to look very expensive with increasing finance rates (at least here in the UK). Now they will sell far more P models than ever before and less standard models. The cost of the more powerful rear P motor is probably peanuts in production and certainly nothing remotely like the £40k retail price difference before the price drop. All in all I think this is a clever way of upselling the S/X models, pushing most of their customers into the top spec models at a reduced premium. People who would have been in the market for a 75D only a couple of months ago will now be eyeing up the Performance models even though they are still considerably more expensive. Also let's not forget that the Model S is well into middle age on its product cycle, so boosting sales by effectively discounting upgrades is the obvious thing to do and happens all the time in the industry.

Anyway, yeah I think you are being too negative here! If the Model 3 wasn't selling and getting a slating in the press then it would be a very different story. But this looks like a big push to really penetrate the market in the shortest possible time while not losing money in the process.
 
This is no fire sale, this is the beginning. Tesla currently has the cheapest electric car with a positive margin. Legacy automakers as of last Thursday just went from 2-3 years behind to 5-6 years behind.
I think you're right, although Nissan can apparently also achieve profitability with their 60kwh battery Leaf at around the same price as M3 and legacy sales model--the latter a bit baffles me. I would not question that Tesla M3 is a better car and much more future proof.
 
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I think you're right, although Nissan can apparently also achieve profitability with their 60kwh battery Leaf at around the same price as M3 and legacy sales model--the latter a bit baffles me. I would not question that Tesla M3 is a better car and much more future proof.

Okay let's make it how musk puts is. The cheapest "compelling electric car people actually want to buy" with a positive margin.

You think pano roofs, auto pilot software and sleek sweeping roofline is free? Let's not even mention the power train difference.
 
Sales and production of Model 3 is actually looking pretty awesome. Bringing in the $35k base model hits a major company mission objective, generates global headlines and scares the *sugar* out of the likes of GM and Ford! The closing of many expensive shopping mall stores makes sense too in making the lower cost models sustainable.

Price slashing high performance Model S and X is an interesting move. The P models were always considered to be over-priced toys for those with money to burn and now they are about to compete directly with the likes of the brand new Porsche Taycan. This bold move now leaves a major headache for Porsche in pricing up the various performance levels of the Taycan. The base price of the standard Model S/X hasn't really changed much and before the price cut they were actually starting to look very expensive with increasing finance rates (at least here in the UK). Now they will sell far more P models than ever before and less standard models. The cost of the more powerful rear P motor is probably peanuts in production and certainly nothing remotely like the £40k retail price difference before the price drop. All in all I think this is a clever way of upselling the S/X models, pushing most of their customers into the top spec models at a reduced premium. People who would have been in the market for a 75D only a couple of months ago will now be eyeing up the Performance models even though they are still considerably more expensive. Also let's not forget that the Model S is well into middle age on its product cycle, so boosting sales by effectively discounting upgrades is the obvious thing to do and happens all the time in the industry.

Anyway, yeah I think you are being too negative here! If the Model 3 wasn't selling and getting a slating in the press then it would be a very different story. But this looks like a big push to really penetrate the market in the shortest possible time while not losing money in the process.
I think we are missing the big picture if we are looking at the other EVs that the less expensive S, X and 3 are endangering. The goal after all is to compete with and eliminate ICE vehicles. So the question should be what ICE vehicles are made vulnerable by the new Tesla price points?
 
Tesla is always about proving the impossible(kind of Elon's job considering all the naysayers).

He wants to show the world that

1. You can make a compelling EV and people would love it/buys it by the hundreds of thousands
2. You can make said EV and make money at 35k.

The showcase is for other car companies to jump on board. He has given them the patents, now given them PROOF that an EV future is not only possible, but also profitable.

For all those who thinks "oh Tesla is losing their shirts, they are panicking, no demand"..just look at what the company is all about. Its purpose is not to make money, but to transition the world into sustainable energy. Everything they have done are proof of concepts and want every car manufacture to model after. Elon said it again and again, he wants competition and can't wait for other car companies to make compelling products. He provides a solid roadmap to a 35k car everyone loves, but NO ONE FOLLOWED. Everyone just laughed at his company, think it'll go bankrupt, laughed at his gigafactory, and laughed at his ultimate mission.

Just like the reusable rocket, Elon has done it with Tesla. We should celebrate...it was a monumental feat of accomplishment!
 
I think we are missing the big picture if we are looking at the other EVs that the less expensive S, X and 3 are endangering. The goal after all is to compete with and eliminate ICE vehicles. So the question should be what ICE vehicles are made vulnerable by the new Tesla price points?

I agree, they are competing against newly released premium EVs and ICE cars alike. A price reduction kills 2 birds with 1 stone.
 
I agree, they are competing against newly released premium EVs and ICE cars alike. A price reduction kills 2 birds with 1 stone.

I think there are a very large number of potential buyers who are hesitant to buy due to concerns about service, support and other issues related to stability. Now price stability is added to that list. Other EVs have some attraction but lack so many of Tesla's desirable features.

Perhaps half of reservation holders bought a Tesla. I think most of that half is still interested in a Tesla. But closing stores adds to the wtf list of acts in Elon's circus. Where's the bottom? Maybe self service for warranty repairs.
 
The announcements last week have to all be put together to add perspective
1/ Lots of prewarning fanfare and the announcement of the long awaited $35K Model3, some disappointment at the defeaturing, some may say this is like the magician getting you to look at his left hand while the right pulls off the trick.
2/ The anouncemnt of the closure of most the stores to reduce costs, however this amounts to the third restructuring and layoffs in the last 8 months, some of these stores have been open just 4 months at significant cost and ongoing liability.
3/ Also hidden in plain sight was the evisceration of Solar City with even further layoffs, they pulled the Home Depot sales into Tesla stores, but now how are they going to be selling them? There is no longer a pretence or making SCY work, they have penalty payments coming next year to the state of NY now.
4/ The massive price cuts on S&X, these alone will knock over $1B a year off Tesla revenues, May be offset by trying to get a lot more in for AP and FSD which were also cut, if take up was low this could increase net receipts.
Much less publicised was the invite only (and potentially unlawful*) earnings call to selected journalists and with a promise that no recordings or transcripts were allowed, but they’ve been leaked anyway, why the secrecy?
5/ A profits warning for Q1 which just a month ago was meant to be profitable but will now be a loss, this extended to Q2 this year being break even rather than a profit (with Tesla’s history that’s almost certainly going to be a loss, the guidance has nearly always proven optimistic).
6/ Revised guidance for S&X volumes for 2019 showing a reduction of circa 20% compared to 2018.
7/ Total/Model 3 guidance continuing its yo-yo impression, the numbers go up or down 200,000 (for this year) with almost every time they are mentioned, it seems they really don’t know how many they plan to build.

Tesla has long payment terms with suppliers, it’s no secret sales in the US this year have fallen off a cliff (down circa 75% on Q4 last year), how do they pay the suppliers of the Q4 build with falling sales? they can’t so they have to get volumes up anyway they can to get the cash to pay suppliers, even if it means making a loss per car.

Work still hasn’t commenced on the Shanghai GF and there has been no SEC filing to show they have secured financing for the project (as it was announced it would be funded externally) in addition R&D spending this year has been cut dramatically, there cannot be any meaningful progress on Semi, Y or R2 this year, nor for that matter Full Self Driving, but the price cuts on it are good news as they are currently 100% extra profit for Tesla, sell a lot more for a little less!

Tesla’s actions right now are somehow reminiscent of Sears and J.C.Penny in their last year.

*Material facts are meant to be announced to all, so all can react equally, not in secret, I’d be very surprised if the SEC won’t be all over this soon.
The transcript
Dropbox - Tesla Call Transcript (2.28.19).pdf
 
They have way to many stores right now. I'll take Denver where I live. They have one at their main service center, and then two additional stores in high end shopping malls. The shopping mall locations are a pain in the but to test drive a vehicle (10 minute walk through the food court to get to the vehicles). So why not close the shopping mall locations and keep open the service center showroom.

Also take a look at some other major cities like LA and New York. LA has 17 stores. That seems like an excessive number.

In his letter he mentioned most of the stores would close but some will remain open. I would close everything outside of a service center to start. Maybe keep some really high traffic stores in other locations open.
 
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Tesla’s actions right now are somehow reminiscent of Sears and J.C.Penny in their last year.

*Material facts are meant to be announced to all, so all can react equally, not in secret, I’d be very surprised if the SEC won’t be all over this soon.
The transcript
Dropbox - Tesla Call Transcript (2.28.19).pdf

Shorting a bit lately? There are so many inaccuracies in your post it is not even worth arguing. But there is one that irritates me endlessly - the "falling of the cliff US sales". It is mind boggling how all shorts forget to mention that model 3 was nearly exclusively sold in US in Q4 - just to push as many as possible before expiration of the $7500 tax refund. If you follow Bloomberg you will see that estimated production of model 3 has actually increased = so far ~55,000 model 3 produced in Q1. I doubt Tesla produced 43000 cars (55k - 12 k US deliveries) just to build inventory. These cars are now going to Europe, China and Canada

My take on the lower guidance - Q1 loss instead of Q1 small earning - is the realization that shipping ~20k cars each month overseas is going to be much harder than originally thought.

As for the model S/X - just as stated in another post above - readjusting price now that there is competition. Many Taycan reservation holders are Tesla owners - myself included. But with the new price for non-ludicrous performance models, S is back in the loop for me. The ones that should really take this as very bad news are the competition - time to revise the platform a third time?
 
I’m not a short no. I wish Tesla and the employees all the best especially in the face of a third round of layoffs.

Elon is their biggest asset and their worst enemy at the same time. Great vision, horrendous execution and massive wastes of much needed money. He is also far too arrogant and won’t brook experienced people trying to telling him He’s wrong, I know a few people who worked there and it drove them nuts.

Nice cherry picking of the bits that you don’t like, I emphasised it was a whole story.

Glad you agree the S&X price drops aren’t good news, after all if those others cars weren’t really competitors they wouldn’t be having an effect. Having been in an S and an I-pace it’s no contest, the Jaguar is far and away a better car.

Give what excuses you like, demand in the US has fallen off a cliff, that’s why the 35k car has been bought forward to try and create some demand (enough).
 
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Demand falling = start leasing program; this is not available for model 3, which tells me the cliff is not quite in sight. We will see the full story once production / sales / earnings are reported for Q1.
 
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As the O.P. Of his threat I am somewhat reassured after giving at a couple of days and reading through all the post and the transcript. Thank you for that. What I missed was not that they are closing but that stored will be transformed to galleries and information centres. This is a great move and was lost in all the news I think.
 
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