Guestimating Tesla "invitation to configure" heuristic

[Garlan Garner]

So you are using a sample of 3 people out of the, well over, 120,000 people that stood in line or ordered online on the 31st? You realize that you cannot get much more statistically irrelevant than that? The fact of the matter is that the overwhelming majority of people who have reported being invited to configure have been prior owners who waited in line and live in California. A few outliers does not indicate a trend.

Trend? Who said anything about a trend?
Statistics? Who said anything about statistics?


I'm talking facts. Did it happen? YES. That's all.

Follow this thread as well: Web reservations given priority over line standers?

 

[HankLloydRight]

WHAT? All I'm talking about are the guidelines of how they will prioritize invitations to configure and now its not really happening that way in some instances.

I will direct you to Tesla's own website. Elon has provided many other official statements that I can direct you to as well concerning Orders being delivered from the West Coast to the East Coast....and such.

Model 3 Reservations FAQ

Some people would like their website to be true.

When will I be invited to configure my Model 3, and when can I take delivery?
Model 3 reservation holders are receiving invitations to order and design Model 3 based on the time and date that they placed their reservation. Current Tesla owners have priority as a thank you for their support.

Can I use my Tesla owner priority on more than one Model 3 reservation?
Yes. If you have owned one Tesla, you will receive priority for one Model 3 reservation. If you have owned two or more Teslas, you will receive priority for up to two Model 3 reservations.


Maybe you don't consider things like this a promise, however I do:
Elon Musk on Twitter

A guy voices his displeasure in having folks from the West Coast get their cars before those who waited in line in NJ. Elon's response is fact and promise by Tesla in my estimation......and is indeed happening as we speak.


All I have been talking about is configuring. Where are you reading that I'm saying something else?

I'm not talking about stuff like this: Elon Musk on Twitter

You can point to all the rules and tweets you want, but in the end, it's really up to Tesla to decide who gets invited to configure. It might follow their posted guidelines (i.e. NOT RULES) or they might not. We don't know what the ACTUAL FACTORS are that influence the invite order, nor the weighting assigned to each one. Maybe previous ownership only accounts for 10% of the "invite score" and proximity to the factory counts for 50%, and "line waiters" counts for 2%. WE JUST DO NOT KNOW. Nor do we know what makes up the remaining 38% (in my example). It could be, maybe, number of referrals. Or people who paid cash for their existing car (so no financing is involved), or people with a good credit rating, or people with the fewest Service Center visits/complaints for their existing car. (I'm just making these up as examples). The point is, we have no idea how they are deciding who gets the next invite. Maybe there's a black-list of people they just don't like? Elon cancelled that MX order from that journalist who wrote a negative Tesla story.

You're here trying to define each guideline as a hard-and-fast, not to be broken rule, and try to figure out each and every anomaly that don't follow YOUR RULES.

I say just give it up already, none of your hand-mashing is going to make it work any better. It's a BLACK BOX with several inputs, most of which we don't even know. So why waste so much time trying to figure it out? Whatever you figure out will be wrong. As they say, garbage-in, garbage-out.

 

[Garlan Garner]

You can point to all the rules and tweets you want, but in the end, it's really up to Tesla to decide who gets invited to configure.

.

Its' Teslas rules and Tweets. This is hilarious.

As I said in another reply. I wish my teachers were as defending and optimistic towards me as some here are about Tesla.
I wouldn't have ever gotten anything wrong on a test or anything. I would have been able to do whatever I wanted.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Its' Teslas rules and Tweets. This is hilarious.

But they are not RULES, they are GUIDELINES. Tweets are GUIDELINES.

There's a difference between "WE WILL DO IT THIS WAY" and "Eh, we'll take these things into account".

You're trying to figure it out as the former, when it's really the latter.

 

[ummgood]

Here are my thoughts on why Robert's invites didn't go out before the other two. The reason I believe is for some reason Tesla isn't associating his Model 3 reservation as him being a current owner. He said on the podcast that his window for "First Production" was Dec-Feb. That means that most likely they think Robert is a non-owner. That would explain why he didn't get the invite yet.

 

[Garlan Garner]

But they are not RULES, they are GUIDELINES. Tweets are GUIDELINES.

There's a difference between "WE WILL DO IT THIS WAY" and "Eh, we'll take these things into account".

You're trying to figure it out as the former, when it's really the latter.

I'm not trying to figure anything out. I'm just reading what is stated.

I posted a live statement from TESLA's website about configuration. This is clear and not left to speculation or guessing.

When will I be invited to configure my Model 3, and when can I take delivery?
Model 3 reservation holders are receiving invitations to order and design Model 3 based on the time and date that they placed their reservation. Current Tesla owners have priority as a thank you for their support.

Can I use my Tesla owner priority on more than one Model 3 reservation?
Yes. If you have owned one Tesla, you will receive priority for one Model 3 reservation. If you have owned two or more Teslas, you will receive priority for up to two Model 3 reservations.

_____________________

My question to you and everyone is this. Does Tesla have to do this or not? Does Tesla have to "send out invitations to order and design Model 3 based on the time and date that they placed their reservation?"
What if they don't? You would just say "oh well" right?

Do
Current Tesla owners have priority as a thank you for their support.?
OR NOT? If not you would just say "oh well" right?

We need people like yourself to boost teslas stock price who don't care about official statements and such....or at least I do.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Here are my thoughts on why Robert's invites didn't go out before the other two. The reason I believe is for some reason Tesla isn't associating his Model 3 reservation as him being a current owner. He said on the podcast that his window for "First Production" was Dec-Feb. That means that most likely they think Robert is a non-owner. That would explain why he didn't get the invite yet.

I agree with you 100%.

Robert put his 1000 down with the same email address he used for his account with his other 2 cars. Obviously Tesla didn't make the connection. I agree with you 100% that somehow they don't think he is a current owner.

 

[HankLloydRight]

My question to you and everyone is this. Does Tesla have to do this or not? Does Tesla have to "send out invitations to order and design Model 3 based on the time and date that they placed their reservation?"

Do
Current Tesla owners have priority as a thank you for their support.?
OR NOT?

You're asking like it's a binary thing. Tesla doesn't HAVE to do anything. They ARE taking those things INTO CONSIDERATION. That fulfils their "promise" as posted above.

You're looking like it as if it's black or white -- they ARE or ARE NOT. But that's not how it works.

I'm done trying to explain this to you.

 

[Garlan Garner]

.

I'm done trying to explain this to you.

Good

 

[azred]

I’m in Arizona but according to my Nov-Jan grouping heuristic my invitation must be stuck in the mail. So please stop clogging the US mail with all of those dumb Christmas cards. The recipients just throw them out anyway after they discovered you were too cheap to send a gift.

 

[dsvick]

Trend? Who said anything about a trend?
Statistics? Who said anything about statistics?


I'm talking facts. Did it happen? YES. That's all.

You are talking about more than facts when start taking facts and extrapolating entire pictures out of them. No you don't mention trends and statistics but you may as well have.

Its confirmed that line waiters on day one have nothing to do with configuration either.

You took a sample size of three and reached this definitive conclusion when all other indications show the opposite.

We know what has happened regardless of what Tesla has said. Line waiters obviously take no precedence over those who didn't.

Again, you took the reports of three individuals and took it to mean that it applies to everyone. I'm not sure what it is that you want people to say to you. Yes, there were a few exceptions to the guidelines Tesla said that they would use to determine when people would get to configure. I'm sure they are deeply sorry that they did not live up to your expected levels of perfection.

 

[Garlan Garner]

You are talking about more than facts when start taking facts and extrapolating entire pictures out of them. No you don't mention trends and statistics but you may as well have.


You took a sample size of three and reached this definitive conclusion when all other indications show the opposite.


Again, you took the reports of three individuals and took it to mean that it applies to everyone. I'm not sure what it is that you want people to say to you. Yes, there were a few exceptions to the guidelines Tesla said that they would use to determine when people would get to configure. I'm sure they are deeply sorry that they did not live up to your expected levels of perfection.

All I'm saying is that the sample size does not matter.

If Tesla says that employees will get their cars before everyone else, then I expect that ALL employees will get their cars first.
If Tesla says that those who already own teslas will get to configure first, then I expect that current Tesla owners should get their cars first.
If Tesla says that configuration opportunities will be excecuted from the West Coast to the East Coast, then I expect that California is first.

Although line waiters getting their cars first is not an official statement, I expect the statement from Tesla's website to hold true that the configuration opportunity will next be determined by who ordered first then line waiters obviously ordered first before anyone online soo.....

I should have stayed in bed and not worried about being in line at 3AM in the rain.

 

[dsvick]

All I'm saying is that the sample size does not matter.

If Tesla says that employees will get their cars before everyone else, then I expect that ALL employees will get their cars first.
If Tesla says that those who already own teslas will get to configure first, then I expect that current Tesla owners should get their cars first.
If Tesla says that configuration opportunities will be excecuted from the West Coast to the East Coast, then I expect that California is first.

Although line waiters getting their cars first is not an official statement, I expect the statement from Tesla's website to hold true that the configuration opportunity will next be determined by who ordered first then line waiters obviously ordered first before anyone online soo.....

I should have stayed in bed and not worried about being in line at 3AM in the rain.

I feel sorry for you, the real world is rarely as perfectly black and white as you seem to want it to be.

 

[ElecFan]

I feel sorry for you, the real world is rarely as perfectly black and white as you seem to want it to be.

Yep, 92,4% according to this spreadsheet is clearly a sign of priority for those who lined up in store.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I feel sorry for you, the real world is rarely as perfectly black and white as you seem to want it to be.

Oh no. Please don't feel sorry for me. This hasn't affected me personally.

I'm not looking for perfection at all. However, I don't just lay down like a wet dog and dream about rainbows and gumdrops when it isn't. I feel sorry for those who have no spine to speak up about the truth when it looks them in the face. No need at all to feel sorry for me in the least bit. I speak up and always will.

If you meant it as an insult.....that's fine too.

I'm probably older than most in this forum and have lived to see massive amounts of imperfections in life.....just look at the US political stage in the news these days. Its a comedy. Someone didn't speak up loud enough.

 

[DFibRL8R]

Seems like the next big configuration move (after the last California owner+very early reservation holders are invited) will either be for current owners/very early reservation holders outside California or perhaps they will start inviting current California owners who reserved a little later than April 1 before they deliver out of state.

Does anyone know how the out-of-state Tesla employee deliveries proceeded? Was it Oregon/Washington then marching east or did they skip over to the east coast early on (like the Supercharger roll out)?

 

[dsvick]

Seems like the next big configuration move (after the last California owner+very early reservation holders are invited) will either be for current owners/very early reservation holders outside California or perhaps they will start inviting current California owners who reserved a little later than April 1 before they deliver out of state.

I would expect that they'll start moving East as production begins to ramp and they are producing more than can be realistically delivered by the West coast delivery centers.

 

[wyldtek]

I'm a Model S owner in California with a reservation made in line. I have not received my invitation yet. I bought my Model S months after making the Model 3 reservation so hopefully I still get "current owner" priority.

I got my invitation to configure last night!

 

[smorgasbord]

Why am I the only one who can follow directions on the spreadsheet?

The VIN column is clearly labeled for 3 digits plus 2 x's:

Yet everytime I enter "019xx" someone changes it to "19xx." Pretty soon now we'll need that extra digit to separate the 019xx's from the 119xx's.

 

[JenniferQ]

Yeah, I was only able to input 4 digits