Guessing wait list # based on Reservation Number ...

[EVNow]

I'm trying to guess my waiting list number based on the RN number. I booked on 22nd around 8:30 PM PST. The number is RN11289xxxx.

The spreadsheet maintained by the CT owners forum has these details currently. They assume the net reservation is around 2M ... and the reservation range is about 8M. So, 4 reservation numbers = 1 reservation.

Going by that my reservation, which is about 150,000 from the lowest reservation number is probably around 40,000 on waiting list. Assuming a very high conversion rate of 50%, puts me at 20,000. I'm looking forward to getting CT for my planned summer road trip ... doesn't look all that infeasible

BTW, Sandy and others have mentioned 1M reservations. In that case, the math gets changed. Ofcourse, the early reservation holder conversion rate will probably better than later ones ... but I'm still assuming 50% max.

 

[AviP]

I'm 11274xxxx and they haven't called me. I'll be upgrading from DM to TM. They did reach out via text to buy a model Y with the $1000 discount for early CT reservation holders.

 

[beewang]

I'm 11274xxxx and they haven't called me. I'll be upgrading from DM to TM. They did reach out via text to buy a model Y with the $1000 discount for early CT reservation holders.

You are on the far corner out in the NE. Look for those invites AFTER they Open Up invites to Philly and NY

 

[CoolBuddy]

Assuming a very high conversion rate of 50%,

I don't think the conversion rate is going to be nearly that high, so you may get your vehicle even sooner. The price of the MY AWD was actually higher than the estimated price of the CT AWD at announcement. The demand for vehicles near $50K is much higher than it is for one near $80K. You couple that with many people that already owned Teslas transferring FSD to a new vehicle in August and September, others having purchased a car within the past year or two, higher interest rates, insurance, etc. and it makes a recipe for maybe a 5% rate if we are lucky. I hope I'm wrong, but the trend I'm gathering from watching some of these car YouTube channels is that the general public is shying away from vehicles much higher than $50K.

I imagine a lot of Tri-motor reservations will be converted though, because the original price for that was in the ballpark of the current AWD. At the very least, they'll downgrade to AWD and still take delivery.

 

[EVNow]

I imagine a lot of Tri-motor reservations will be converted though, because the original price for that was in the ballpark of the current AWD. At the very least, they'll downgrade to AWD and still take delivery.

I don't think it will be as low as 5% ... esp. because Tesla will reduce prices to match demand with supply (as we have seen). But as you say - I'm one of those considering moving from Trimotor to AWD. If I can get the tax credit ... and trade in the Toyota van we have now and pay cash.

 

[kabin]

I'm 11282xxxx and more than happy to wait for the CT factory to ramp up above customer demand. But I have my doubts they will be able to ramp up quickly.