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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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There is also discussion in today's (2/3/18) Market Action thread which should probably be transferred here



Thanks. I'm trying to understand the mechanics of how any residual value shortfall might affect Tesla shareholders; specifically, is Tesla able to reduce it's residual value risk by financing the leases using the ABS as opposed to WL borrowings?

Is “the excess spread” the difference between the interest rate paid to the ABS holders and the interest rate used in the underlying leases? Any sense of how big the spread is? When the leases were financed using WL borrowings, did Tesla retain all of the benefit from the excess spread?

Am I correct that the spread is in addition to the over-collateralization, i.e. the 0.75% initial reserve plus the $62 million out of the $608 million pool not assigned to any ABS class, to fund a lower resale price than the contracted RV?

Until I have a chance to see the prospectus I will be guessing a little based on securitisations i have worked on. I'm not sure what your familiarity is with ABS securitisation so forgive me if i am starting from a position that is too simplistic.

At the start of the securitisation the Noteholders are entitled to interest at the rate at which they purchased the Notes, and to all principal payments due under the $608m of leases up to the initial balance of the notes ($546m). Monthly lease payments are split into a principal and interest component.

There are generally two waterfalls (priorities of payment) in a securitisation, one that takes the interest income component received from all the monthly lease payments and attributes it to the expense payments due in the month; and one that takes the principal received and allocates it to repayment of the principal of the notes. (P13 of the Moody's pre-sale shows only one waterfall, I'm not sure if this is Moody's attempt to aggregate them or if this securitisation has a different structure to ones I have worked on. I will find out when the prospectus is released at closing)

The excess spread (called remaining fund in the Moody's Presale) is what is left after paying the expenses (trustee fees, swap costs and interest on the notes). Depending on the specific structure of the securitisation, there is likely to be a requirement for the interest income to reimburse the shortfall in principal received in the month for any defaults in the month. This is where any RV shortfall on a specific loan impacts Tesla - If the lease does not receive the contractual RV after sale of the vehicle then interest income from all the other loans can be used to top-up the loss of the RV. So technically Tesla does limit the shortfall RV risk by securitising, however there are so many safeguards to the bondholders in the deal (10% OC, reserve funds, interest income to cover shortfalls) that this downside would only be limited under Great Depression like circumstances. We should hope that Tesla never ends up realising it's downside risk limits as any failure to repay bonds is basically a death knell for a securitisation program. I should also note here that if the vehicle is sold for more than the contractual RV amount at the end of the lease, the contract (an therefore the securitisation) is not entitled to the extra cash.

Ultimately Tesla should be in the same position financially regardless of whether they securitise these assets vs if they could borrow the same amount of money at the same costs for the same time. All interest and principal received from the leases in excess of what is owed to the Noteholders will eventually find its way back to Tesla, although there will be some timing differences on receipt of the excess funds.

The spread is stated in this Wall Street Journal article states that the Class A notes sold for Libor + 0.3% and the Class E notes sold for Libor + 2.65%. The weighted average rate will probably Libor +~0.6%-0.8% (the article doesn't break down the cost for each tranche of notes). Another thing to mention is as the leases pay down, the principal is applied to the highest rated (and cheapest) notes first, which means the average interest rate on the notes goes up over time.

I would expect the WL to have broadly the same structure as the term securitisation in terms of income from all leases covering losses on individual leases and Tesla receiving any excess spread.

One thing I don't know is what the required credit enhancement is of the WLs. In the term deal Tesla has to fund the OC portion with it's own money, which is 10.2% of the balance of the loans. If the WL required Tesla to fund e.g. 20% of the leases sold into the WL, then there is a net 10% of the balance of the loans released to Tesla upon closing.
 
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So guys, what is your estimation for when it will be possible to get a Model 3 (no matter which Model), within a month from the time we configure it (not early reserver) ?

Earliest: 2021

Backlog is about 500.000.

But: as it gets filled, more orders will be coming in. It is quite possible, even probable, that backlog will not be reduced for a long time. Every M3 on the road advertises the car and will lead to 1-2 new orders.

So realistically 2025? In Germany a year later than that.
 
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Super! Are these quadratic fits? It would be nice to know what the coefficients are, which you can differentiate to find the production delivery rate.

3rd order - see here:
Model 3 Invites
upload_2018-2-4_20-38-55.png
 
If that extrapolation to 17K VINs proves accurate, then I expect about 12K deliveries. That's based on a net increase of 14K VINs for the quarter (since Tesla was at 3K at the end of 2017) and then an additional 2K cars added to the delivery pipeline. The undelivered portion could be much higher if a lot of the production is in a March surge, and nationwide deliveries take a bit longer.

I'd be okay with 12K Model 3's this quarter, but I don't think it would translate into a large increase in revenue because I expect S/X sales to dip in Q1 after Tesla emptied the pipeline. I see S + X sales around 22K for Q1 (production limited), so another 12K Model 3 would give similar revenue as Q4.

I'm hoping Tesla can do better though. We've seen 3.5K VINs in January, so 4.5K (Feb) + 5.5K (Mar) for a total of 14K doesn't seem impossible to beat.
 
Tesla represents 58% of all electric cars (including hybrids) and 81% of all EVs sold in January in the US if the numbers predicted are correct.

Thinking about how the rest of the years will look like..... its a shame for all large auto manufacturers and I really hope that they manage to get some decent cars out that attract consumers. OTOH as a shareholder I should not complain...

Big Auto, We Have A Problem — US Electric Car Sales Report | CleanTechnica
Avoigt, thanks for the link. This is one of the best written articles I have read on the (lack of) competition to Tesla. Zachary Shahan nailed it in stating the "large automakers aren’t even trying (to build compelling EVs)". Certainly worth the read.
 
Thanks. The cubic term is driving this then. This has the implication that the daily production rate is growing with the square of days. So this is a very rapid transition, growing faster than linear.

This is what I can say qualitatively. But quantitatively, it's hard to work with the coefficients here because Excel (or whatever software) is working with dates that are over 43000 days from day zero. That is what makes the coefficients so extreme. If you were to replace dates with the number of days since a recent date like 1/1/2018 or the current date, we would have coefficients that are much easier to interpret.

Anyway, thank you for entertaining my fancy. It's probably easy enough to read value off of the curve as you have.

I would add one more thing. If the point here is to make a near term forecast, you may have more reliable results using a quadratic fit. Basically you'd be picking up on the recent trend in daily rate and project that.
 
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If that extrapolation to 17K VINs proves accurate, then I expect about 12K deliveries. That's based on a net increase of 14K VINs for the quarter (since Tesla was at 3K at the end of 2017) and then an additional 2K cars added to the delivery pipeline. The undelivered portion could be much higher if a lot of the production is in a March surge, and nationwide deliveries take a bit longer.

I'd be okay with 12K Model 3's this quarter, but I don't think it would translate into a large increase in revenue because I expect S/X sales to dip in Q1 after Tesla emptied the pipeline. I see S + X sales around 22K for Q1 (production limited), so another 12K Model 3 would give similar revenue as Q4.

I'm hoping Tesla can do better though. We've seen 3.5K VINs in January, so 4.5K (Feb) + 5.5K (Mar) for a total of 14K doesn't seem impossible to beat.
This seems like a very plausible estimate, with S/X down in Q1 and M3 deliveries likely below 12k. If revenues are similar or only slightly above Q4 then Q1 ER might not prove to be much of a positive catalyst. Q2 should be a big revenue jump, though.
 
Interesting update noted in this article: Big Auto, We Have A Problem — US Electric Car Sales Report | CleanTechnica
"Update: Word on the street is that Model 3 production may have hit more snags in January than expected, and the delivery total might have been closer to 1,500 than 3,000. I’ll wait for something official from Tesla to update the chart and table."

So, here's what I was estimating for January: 860 Model 3's were in the overhang from last quarter. With one week off, there was about 3.5 weeks of production. So likely production number was around 2,750. However, Tesla doesn't optimize for delivery count within the first month of a quarter... lots of vehicles were in transit on trains and trucks and various points along the way. Likely that's more than 1.5 weeks of production. So I'm guessing around 2,250 delivered, with nearly 1,400 in transit.

Basically, I think Tesla has delivered 4,000 Model 3's and made 5,400 so far. 7 months in for the Model X was 2,614 delivered (which also was end of quarter), so the Model 3 is well ahead and will continue to accelerate.
 
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If that extrapolation to 17K VINs proves accurate, then I expect about 12K deliveries. That's based on a net increase of 14K VINs for the quarter (since Tesla was at 3K at the end of 2017) and then an additional 2K cars added to the delivery pipeline. The undelivered portion could be much higher if a lot of the production is in a March surge, and nationwide deliveries take a bit longer.

I'd be okay with 12K Model 3's this quarter, but I don't think it would translate into a large increase in revenue because I expect S/X sales to dip in Q1 after Tesla emptied the pipeline. I see S + X sales around 22K for Q1 (production limited), so another 12K Model 3 would give similar revenue as Q4.

I'm hoping Tesla can do better though. We've seen 3.5K VINs in January, so 4.5K (Feb) + 5.5K (Mar) for a total of 14K doesn't seem impossible to beat.

The data from the @Troy sheet shows between 11.9k and 14.6k depending on the data used:
(Model 3 monthly delivery estimates based on VINs)
upload_2018-2-5_5-23-36.png
 
Earliest: 2021

Backlog is about 500.000.

But: as it gets filled, more orders will be coming in. It is quite possible, even probable, that backlog will not be reduced for a long time. Every M3 on the road advertises the car and will lead to 1-2 new orders.

So realistically 2025? In Germany a year later than that.

Model S and Model X supply has taken about year to catch up to demand. Tesla has enough planning time to ramp to 1m Model 3’s run-rate by 2020. That’s when I’d expect Model 3 supply to catch up with demand, which is what OP asked.
 
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