General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mongo]

Tweet from Elon.
Oh Geezus. I don't like this. I Think a better idea would have been the F9 plushy toy.

"Apparently, some customs agencies are saying they won’t allow shipment of anything called a “Flamethrower”. To solve this, we are renaming it “Not a Flamethrower”.

Elon Musk on Twitter

Think Geek had a similar issue.
Then there are the "passenger vehicles " that get imported and turned back into vans...

 

[DurandalAI]

Prof Ray Wills on Twitter

Ray Wills has modelled the triumph of BEV over HEB and PHEV. He claims it is already turning. View attachment 277758

I don’t disagree. PHEV is training wheels. Just look at the Bolt which now outsells the Volt. People who buy PHEVs understand the value in BEVs, but can’t yet make the plunge. I personally know of a few people who want BEVs but don’t yet consider them “ready” or cannot afford a 200 mile BEV so are settling for PHEVs. Unfortunately as much as I want I cannot with good conscience push these people towards a cheaper BEV like the Leaf, which would have substantially reduced range in 5 years... like mine.

 

[RobStark]

Prof Ray Wills on Twitter

Ray Wills has modelled the triumph of BEV over HEB and PHEV.

Toyota Prius Family sales. Toyota keeps adding variants, doesn't help.


..................USA...............Canada
2012.........236,659..........10,041
2013.........234,288...........7808
2014.........207,372............6958
2015.........184,794............7150
2016.........136,632............8095
2017.........108,662............7977

Toyota Prius Family Sales Figures -

 

[jhm]

Prof Ray Wills on Twitter

Ray Wills has modelled the triumph of BEV over HEB and PHEV. He claims it is already turning. View attachment 277758

Looking more carefully at this, I see Wills is modeling an 80%/y growth rate for BEVs, while PHEVs scoot along at about 15% and HEVs at -40%/y. I'm not sure how Wills is arriving at these estimates, but it is certainly provocative. In recent years, the combination of PHEVs and BEVs have been growing at 56%/y. But apparently in this history PHEVs have been holding back the growth of PEVs. As BEVs break out, PEV growth may accelerate. If Wills is correct here, many observers will be surprised to see this acceleration. It is mathematically one way for superexponential growth to happen.

Buckle up.

 

[jhm]

Toyota Prius Family sales. Toyota keeps adding variants, doesn't help.


..................USA...............Canada
2012.........236,659..........10,041
2013.........234,288...........7808
2014.........207,372............6958
2015.........184,794............7150
2016.........136,632............8095
2017.........108,662............7977

Toyota Prius Family Sales Figures -

Thanks. This implies a growth rate of -31%/y for NA over the last 5 years. So this would corroborate with the HEV decline in Wills's forecast. Also I would not be surprised if lesser hybrids are declining faster than the Prius.

 

[22522]

Toyota Prius Family sales. Toyota keeps adding variants, doesn't help.


..................USA...............Canada
2012.........236,659..........10,041
2013.........234,288...........7808
2014.........207,372............6958
2015.........184,794............7150
2016.........136,632............8095
2017.........108,662............7977

Toyota Prius Family Sales Figures -

It hurts my eyes to look at it. Put a model 3 skin and interior on it...

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I apologize if I did not sense that your email may have only been meant to be humorous

Mainly humorous, but also serious. The decentralized nature of the US meant that lots of states gave women the right to vote before the 1st European country did. But that same decentralized nature meant that lots of states were still opposed in 1920 when the federal amendment finally forced their hand. The history of the US is simultaneously extremely progressive & extremely retrograde.

More recently, you can see the same process with gay marriage, marijuana legalization, and hopefully EVs & renewable energy.

 

[Yoda101]

Put this into a graph - date for each interval shifted to its center, rate per week instead of per day. Linear trend line to compare to 5000/week goal for Q2 (I know ramp is likely not linear, slope getting steeper, so take this as a conservative approximation). @Troy - I´d like a plot with this and your data from the VIN collection spreadsheet by Model 3 owners for comparison of two independent approaches, can you remind me where to find that data? Thx.

View attachment 277736

There are two estimation charts here - the invites spreadsheet

and

Both of these charts show close to 18000 for Q1 which equate to 1500 average per week for a 12 week period, where your graph predicts around 2200 per week at the end of Q1.
Therefore, it appears that all three these graphs predict a rate of above 2000 per week by the end of Q1.
Go Tesla!!!

 

[BETA1019]

Tweet from Elon.
Oh Geezus. I don't like this. I Think a better idea would have been the F9 plushy toy.

"Apparently, some customs agencies are saying they won’t allow shipment of anything called a “Flamethrower”. To solve this, we are renaming it “Not a Flamethrower”.

Elon Musk on Twitter

The fear that I have with this is in the short sellers. These guys will roast someone alive using Elon’s flamethrowers if it means distracting him and/or making him look like a horrible person. I fear someone is going to be gravely hurt (even if just by accident) and it’s going to be a PR disaster.

 

[hobbes]

There are two estimation charts here - the invites spreadsheet
View attachment 277795
and
View attachment 277796

Both of these charts show close to 18000 for Q1 which equate to 1500 average per week for a 12 week period, where your graph predicts around 2200 per week at the end of Q1.
Therefore, it appears that all three these graphs predict a rate of above 2000 per week by the end of Q1.
Go Tesla!!!

Cool, thanks! Looking at the two graphs you posted, I´d read them a bit differently though (maybe nitpicking I guess):

1. graph VIN registration: 20,500 total at end of Q1 - 3,000 at beginning of Q1 = 17,500 for Q1
2. graph VIN assignment: 17,500 - 2,500 = 15,000 for Q1

Makes sense that VIN assignment is ahead as it happens earlier, so it is always a bit ahead on the curve. Looking at the plots looks like something around a 10 days shift would fit which sounds credible. Seems my plot is based exactly on the same data as plot 1 but I plotted it differentially instead of cumulatively.

Nice graph, but I think you’re beginning to see the exponential trend not linear.

I know, that´s why I said I did this as a conservative estimate. Fitting an exponential to the data I used gets us to 5000/week by the end of February (IMHO due to too few data points and uncertainties like the possible christmas holiday break), so I didn´t take that as my prediction. I´d say we are on a very good way to 5000/week by the end of Q2 as guided.

 

[avoigt]

Porsche announced that its doubling their investment in electrification from €3bn to €6bn until 2022.

The target GM is 15%. Expect to sell 20k Mission E p.a. in 2020 or '21. In 2017 4% more deliveries confirmed with €22bn revenue in 2016.

In 2019 we should see headlines that Tesla is larger in revenue than Porsche.

Konkurrenz für Tesla? Porsche investiert sechs Milliarden Euro in neue E-Autos

 

[avoigt]

More dual Motor VINs are registered.

#Tesla registered 26 new #Model3 VINs. 24 are dual motor (VINs 11323-11346). Highest VIN is 11348.

Model 3 VINs on Twitter

We likely get some news about the AWD timeline at the ER.

 

[Reciprocity]

There are two estimation charts here - the invites spreadsheet
View attachment 277795
and
View attachment 277796

Both of these charts show close to 18000 for Q1 which equate to 1500 average per week for a 12 week period, where your graph predicts around 2200 per week at the end of Q1.
Therefore, it appears that all three these graphs predict a rate of above 2000 per week by the end of Q1.
Go Tesla!!!

Great analysis but I assume a tiny bit more s curve towards the end of the quarter. Even the model X had a steep rise once it finally got going around month 7 or so. In that ramp it was like 5, 7, 9, 199, 270, 270 then 1800+ for the us according to EV tracker at Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

Not to put to much weight on the comparison, just to highlight that removing Bottlenecks can have a profound effect on production.

 

[JRP3]

The fear that I have with this is in the short sellers. These guys will roast someone alive using Elon’s flamethrowers if it means distracting him and/or making him look like a horrible person. I fear someone is going to be gravely hurt (even if just by accident) and it’s going to be a PR disaster.

That sounds rather paranoid and irrational. Of course that does describe some shorts but i don't think even Mark B S is that wacked out.

 

[Fifield]

More dual Motor VINs are registered.

#Tesla registered 26 new #Model3 VINs. 24 are dual motor (VINs 11323-11346). Highest VIN is 11348.

Model 3 VINs on Twitter

We likely get some news about the AWD timeline at the ER.

Probably meaningless, but the highest VIN registered is now 11348, and on 9/29 the highest registered VIN was 1134, aka production hell...think that's just a coincidence? I'm hoping they're telling us they're now in the 8th of the 9 circles of hell (in which case Spiegel will again point out that's where the fraudulent reside ).

 

[ruralectric]

The fear that I have with this is in the short sellers. These guys will roast someone alive using Elon’s flamethrowers if it means distracting him and/or making him look like a horrible person. I fear someone is going to be gravely hurt (even if just by accident) and it’s going to be a PR disaster.

I'm not so concerned about what this says about Elon's character. Elon's place in the history books is already assured. But this one sure doesn't seem to have been thought through, and it's hard to imagine any way that this ends well. Bad optics, unnecessary risk, and the potential downside could far outweigh the funds raised. I'd be really upset as an investor if this had been a Tesla branded project. By any measure this is just plain dumb, and I think Elon would come out of this looking better if he just chalked it up to stress, refunded everyone's dough and maybe comped them a wind-up boring machine toy. I'm not looking forward to the day these damn things ship.

Ok. No more on this from me. I promise.

 

[EinSV]

More dual Motor VINs are registered.

#Tesla registered 26 new #Model3 VINs. 24 are dual motor (VINs 11323-11346). Highest VIN is 11348.

Model 3 VINs on Twitter

We likely get some news about the AWD timeline at the ER.

The numbers are low but especially since this is the second batch of AWD VINs IMO the most likely explanation is early days of the S-shaped curve. The ramp could be very slow though.

As you say, hopefully we’ll learn more in a couple days.

 

[Intl Professor]

I'm not so concerned about what this says about Elon's character. Elon's place in the history books is already assured. But this one sure doesn't seem to have been thought through, and it's hard to imagine any way that this ends well. Bad optics, unnecessary risk, and the potential downside could far outweigh the funds raised. I'd be really upset as an investor if this had been a Tesla branded project. By any measure this is just plain dumb, and I think Elon would come out of this looking better if he just chalked it up to stress, refunded everyone's dough and maybe comped them a wind-up boring machine toy. I'm not looking forward to the day these damn things ship.

Ok. No more on this from me. I promise.

I think our attempts at humor are sometimes way off the charts. For clarity, not intended for you, Musk.

 

[Starno]

They never stop coming out

 

[Intl Professor]

I think our attempts at humor are sometimes way off the charts. For clarity, not intended for you, Musk.

Thanks to ruralectric's pm, Musk's humor is refined enough that it might turn out that dangerous flame thrower is merely a cigarette lighter. (One can only hope.) Have any been seen in the wild, to borrow a phrase?