General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[elasalle]

From the M3 spreadsheet
View attachment 289710

InsideEV numbers (guesstimates):
Dec 17 - 1016
Jan 18 - 1875
Feb 18 - 2485
March18?

Anyone wanna co- relate/approximate ...

Edit: own fuzzy math
min 4K, max 6.5K for march, which ends up being 1K/week to 1.6K/week.

 

[graphix25]

I know there will be at least one as I’m taking delivery today at 1pm.

Pearl White, Aero and AP.
Vin 11842

Got do do the factory tour last week and saw the crazy dense model 3 line. It looks like a “brick” with robots so dense you cant see through it or even the cars on the line. Tesla is really trying something different with their model 3 production processes. Once the ramp gets going this model 3 will be extremely efficient to build with the high level of automation. Margin and gross profits will come.

Oh yea. Feeling rampy. 12,500 produced and 10,000 delivered in 1Q with 2k/w exit rate sounds about right.

 

[sdtslafan]

I’m leaning toward selling after Q1 delivery news, since I’m expecting people to be excited over those numbers, but selling thereafter, mainly to avoid Q1 earnings report. Expecting more FUD about Tesla’s health from it. Change my mind.

Depending on the tax implications, it may make a lot of sense for you to sell. But please remember that Tesla can rocket higher at the most unexpected times. I've followed this stock like I hawk over 5 years and there are many examples.

The most memorable was when Mark Spiegel gave a 2 hour presentation at the Robinhood conference in 11/16. The negativity was so high back then, yetTesla suddenly rocketed up over 300 with the next several months.

Of course this is the 5 year anniversary of the large short squeeze. If you haven't already, you should read about it in Elon's biography. There was immense negativity in 2013 because shorts thought Tesla would collapse financially, much like today. Elon secretly had basically the whole company on the phone selling Model Ss and wound up making a profit that quarter. The stock went from approximately $30 to $194 dollars in 6 months.

I also remember November 2013 very well. The company had just released a negative earnings report and there was a third fire the very next day. The negativity was again super high. The stock plunged to $115. We were all so dejected. I even told my dad to sell at a loss and I still regret that. The stock was back to $265 by February 25th of the following year.

It's very rare to hear of people who stayed the course and made massive amounts of money off of companies like Netflix and Amazon. That's because there are invariably big bumps along the road and most people cannot take it.

In general, history has shown that visionaries like Elon eventually win in the end. Part of Elons advantage is asymmetry of information. Only he knows the whole picture and can use this to his advantage. If he sees that tesla may run out of money, you can bet he's working something out as we speak. He had a deal with google to sell tesla for 6 billion back in 2013 when things looked bleak. He of course had a plan for solar city as well. 2 billion dollars is basically a drop in the bucket. He's ruthless and angry at the shorts right now and the company is rounding the corner on the ramp. I went to the SD delivery center and watched a model 3 drive off every five minutes. Tables could turn very soon.

 

[bdy0627]

When you look at the sale of a vehicle from any other OEM do you also look at the lowest advertised price or an average sale price and work out margins from there?

My thought exactly. Why take the lowest possible price of a vehicle as the ASP? That's just an attempt to skew the gross margin. ASP will likely be much closer to $45k than $35k. That's an extra $2B in revenue you just erased.

 

[sundaymorning]

you do realize that their workng capital turned from positive 500 million to around 1 billion negative right? which means your "0.1 billion draw" calculation is beyond laughable. You have to undestand accounting before you analyse financial statements...

Let’s not try to manipulate things around. The negative capital will go straight into building the GF (50 % of it to be exact), much of the other 50% will be put towards growth reckless growth (to be exact) of building out superchargers, new storefronts, new service center, etc. Yes the cash burn is high, but it’s justifiable because it’s going towards areas that will support further growth/expansion. So get your facts straight and good luck trying to manipulate around here.

 

[Zaxxon]

Norway's at it again after their holiday. Today won't stack up to the numbers from early last week, but they are registering cars today.

 

[Pras]

I know there will be at least one as I’m taking delivery today at 1pm.

Pearl White, Aero and AP.
Vin 11842

Got do do the factory tour last week and saw the crazy dense model 3 line. It looks like a “brick” with robots so dense you cant see through it or even the cars on the line. Tesla is really trying something different with their model 3 production processes. Once the ramp gets going this model 3 will be extremely efficient to build with the high level of automation. Margin and gross profits will come.

Were you able to observe any potential bottlenecks which may be holding the production rate? Were there hot-spots in the line where there were too many people working? did anyone tell you, maybe the tour guide, how do they plan to increase automation?

 

[defc0n]

My thought exactly. Why take the lowest possible price of a vehicle as the ASP? That's just an attempt to skew the gross margin. ASP will likely be much closer to $45k than $35k. That's an extra $2B in revenue you just erased.

My maths use 45k ASP with 18% gross margin FWIW.

 

[defc0n]

Depending on the tax implications, it may make a lot of sense for you to sell. But please remember that Tesla can rocket higher at the most unexpected times. I've followed this stock like I hawk over 5 years and there are many examples.

The most memorable was when Mark Spiegel gave a 2 hour presentation at the Robinhood conference in 11/16. The negativity was so high back then, yetTesla suddenly rocketed up over 300 with the next several months.

Of course this is the 5 year anniversary of the large short squeeze. If you haven't already, you should read about it in Elon's biography. There was immense negativity in 2013 because shorts thought Tesla would collapse financially, much like today. Elon secretly had basically the whole company on the phone selling Model Ss and wound up making a profit that quarter. The stock went from approximately $30 to $194 dollars in 6 months.

I also remember November 2013 very well. The company had just released a negative earnings report and there was a third fire the very next day. The negativity was again super high. The stock plunged to $115. We were all so dejected. I even told my dad to sell at a loss and I still regret that. The stock was back to $265 by February 25th of the following year.

It's very rare to hear of people who stayed the course and made massive amounts of money off of companies like Netflix and Amazon. That's because there are invariably big bumps along the road and most people cannot take it.

In general, history has shown that visionaries like Elon eventually win in the end. Part of Elons advantage is asymmetry of information. Only he knows the whole picture and can use this to his advantage. If he sees that tesla may run out of money, you can bet he's working something out as we speak. He had a deal with google to sell tesla for 6 billion back in 2013 when things looked bleak. He of course had a plan for solar city as well. 2 billion dollars is basically a drop in the bucket. He's ruthless and angry at the shorts right now and the company is rounding the corner on the ramp. I went to the SD delivery center and watched a model 3 drive off every five minutes. Tables could turn very soon.

Married filing jointly in 24% tax bracket. Having fun watching and trying to predict what happens regardless. Using very small amount of my portfolio mostly as a game to me .

 

[mongo]

Were you able to observe any potential bottlenecks which may be holding the production rate? Were there hot-spots in the line where there were too many people working? did anyone tell you, maybe the tour guide, how do they plan to increase automation?

Just an FYI
@graphix25, like all tour participants, is under an NDA. Violating that will get the tours cancelled/ discontinued for everyone.

 

[bdy0627]

I’m leaning toward selling after Q1 delivery news, since I’m expecting people to be excited over those numbers, but selling thereafter, mainly to avoid Q1 earnings report. Expecting more FUD about Tesla’s health from it. Change my mind.

Short term predictions for this stock are nearly futile. IMO, the two best gurus at it are @Papafox here and Option Sniper on Twitter. The Q1 ER in May won't be pretty but if the model 3 ramp is at that point, it may not matter too much. The ramp has had serious issues to this point, though it is looking promising over the last few week burst. I don't personally expect that burst to continue into April. I expect it to follow the prior pattern of slowing down again before a burst in June. I hope I'm wrong. I'm personally leveraged for a climb in the next 6 weeks based on sentiment improving. When you are at a point where it can't get much worse, the pendulum usually swings back, and the stock will likely follow. I personally expect that pattern to continue.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Norway's game is basically over:

• ~1400 for March 2018, almost double March 2017: 3rd best month ever.
• ~1700 for Q1, +40% compared to 17Q1: 3rd best Q ever.

From what we've seen, this time Tesla concentrated deliveries in the last month of the Q, probably saving quite some money on logistics.
All in all, I'm happy.

 

[defc0n]

Short term predictions for this stock are nearly futile. IMO, the two best gurus at it are @Papafox here and Option Sniper on Twitter. The Q1 ER in May won't be pretty but if the model 3 ramp is at that point, it may not matter too much. The ramp has had serious issues to this point, though it is looking promising over the last few week burst. I don't personally expect that burst to continue into April. I expect it to follow the prior pattern of slowing down again before a burst in June. I hope I'm wrong. I'm personally leveraged for a climb in the next 6 weeks based on sentiment improving. When you are at a point where it can't get much worse, the pendulum usually swings back, and the stock will likely follow. I personally expect that pattern to continue.

I think there is a good chance for a climb for some period of time after Q1 deliveries. Impossible to know for how long or how high. But I also have a pretty good idea how Q1 earnings are going to look regardless. If ramp is going well maybe jumping back in before Q2 deliveries. Not sure yet. Q2 earnings I’m expecting to be much less scary.

Debating on jumping into ALB sometime soon in its place. Should be much less vulnerable to bad news at this time. Lithium miners also have taking an absolute beating that has been unreasonable.

 

[graphix25]

They were cagey on any Model 3 related questions and you have limited time to ask because most of the time is spent on the tram. The model 3 line is in the center of a dense area. You don't get too close and zip by pretty quickly. And as pointed out the NDA allows no more then just say the experience was awesome.

It was really fun to see the factory. I felt like a kid going to Disney for the first time. You get on a golf cart tram and it takes a full hour to go through the whole factory. They mostly profile the S/X. Too me the most impressive pieces of hardware were the presses. They are enormous and sound as the go daadong shakes you to the bone. I'm going to make this an annual pilgrimage to go see the progress. There were also fun little autonomous robots shuttling parts around the factory with full LIDAR which I found kinda of ironic.

Were you able to observe any potential bottlenecks which may be holding the production rate? Were there hot-spots in the line where there were too many people working? did anyone tell you, maybe the tour guide, how do they plan to increase automation?

 

[Words of HABIT]

Remember, how the "competition" beat Tesla to the market by more than 6 month with an affordable long range EV ? Yeah, the GM Bolt released late 2016. How is that ramp going ? They sold about 25K in 2017, now selling less than 2K/month after more than a full year of ramping. Tesla Model 3 already caught up and beat that ramp in January and February (in just half year of ramp-up), we will soon see the March numbers, I expect it to be at least 4x that of the Bolt numbers. Or what other competitors did you have in mind, because it seems to me everyone else has even lower numbers:
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

Please be careful in your comparisons, InsideEVs numbers are ONLY USA. M3 currently is only produced for USA, Bolt is Worldwide.

 

[Words of HABIT]

...

Also, the fact that invites are now going to Canada means that quality is good enough to risk sending the cars to remote areas, without causing too much trouble for repairs....

Who are you calling remote?

 

[skitown]

Expanding on my earlier thought. SpaceX was founded 14 months before Tesla. 14 months ago SpaceX had just returned to flight after blowing up 2 rockets within 11 scheduled missions. They've had 24 successful launches since then. What will Tesla look like in 14 months when it will have existing as long as SpaceX has today?

I think about this a lot. It's deemed impossible to land rockets until it isn't. Then it's routine and the savings are immense. It's deemed impossible to automate a battery packing line until it isn't. Then it's routine and the savings are immense. I like that bet.

 

[Bobfitz1]

This recent post on Insideevs.com (sourced from Bloomberg) seemed worthwhile to share and briefly consider if the news changes anything as to how Euro ICE companies will get batteries they can't or don't want to produce themselves.

CATL To Build Battery Factory In Europe Like LG Chem & Samsung SDI

Focus is on CATL plans to build a GF in a Euro country to supply developing demand from these Euro auto companies. LG Chem and Samsung are said to be following suit, which isn't surprising.
Article says CATL is down to potential locations in three countries for their factory. It reports CATL's IPO is to raise 2 B to fund a really large Chinese factory that would when complete quintuple their current battery production.... and make them the world's biggest battery maker by 2020. Of course Bloomberg never remembers that by end of 2020, Tesla GF1 is planned to be producing 105 GWh, at least double what CATL is hoping to reach.

There have been a number of well reasoned and convincing postings to the effect that ICE companies introducing x, y or z new EV models by fill in the blank year, doesn't mean they will be able to meaningfully compete with Tesla in a few more years.
To simplify, they have neither the will or the battery supply to market and mass produce EVs anytime soon. The assertion that to the extent these companies ramp up EV production, they cannibalize sales of their far more profitable ICE vehicles seems logical and well reasoned. Will CATL, LG and Samsung at least provide BMW, Mercedes, VW etc. with the battery supplies they would need if they wished to sell meaningful volume of EVs?

I don't think it does, based on considering the time/effort it may take for them to bring such GFs on line. Consider CATL. This year will be half gone before they select where to build their Euro GF. CATL experience is in making LiPo cells, so executing a GF making different chemistry cells is going to take more time than duplicating their current factories at larger scale.
I'm skeptical that they could have such a plant operational before end of 2021. Just like Tesla GF1, when first going live, they will produce 5 or 10% of planned output the first year. Perhaps in 2021 it makes 5 GWh. Enough for < 100K cars. In 2022, maybe 3 or 4 times that. Enough for 3 - 400K long range EVs. But where will Tesla be by 2022?

That is discussed and debated often, so this is just a conservative WAG for Tesla car annual numbers to compare.
2018 250K
2019 500K
2020 800K (we all hope for 1M, but staying conservative)
2021 1.2M
2022 2M

If Samsung and LG (plus any Euro company production - which slowly ramps up through 2030) are a half step behind CATL,
the combination of supply for the ICE companies might support at best half of Tesla's production by 2022. However even that can't happen unless they commit to increase their EV production fast enough to meet the potential supply CATL and the others could provide if capital funded to do so. If this estimating is even in the ball park, it suggests Tesla's growth will not be constrained at all by competitors. Not that back of the napkin math is likely to be attempted by Wall Street analysts reading Bloomberg.

 

[graphix25]

Now I’ve gone and done it and ruined it for everyone. Can I claim insanity defense as I’m so excited about delivery today my judgement is impaired?

Just an FYI
@graphix25, like all tour participants, is under an NDA. Violating that will get the tours cancelled/ discontinued for everyone.

 

[RobStark]

Bolt is Worldwide.

Global Bolt/Ampera-e 2017 sales 27,982
Insideevs Bolt reported 2017 sales 23,297

And now GM is no longer owner of Opel and new Opel owner Peugeot is switching from Ampera-e to Corsa EV ASAP.