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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I saw 1025/wk about 8 hours ago also, and now it's back to 975 for me. Also 8 hours ago the cumulative production and the weekly rate graphs, as well as the VIN registration vs modeled production graph all had estimates extending into April, but now they are back to the version that ends at today. There may have been a different version of the website that the proxy server fetched.

This is not a one time thing or a problem with loading a stale version. I’m consistently seeing much lower numbers than others are posting that they are seeing. (975 is still much more than the 881 I’m seeing.) I suspect it may be a time zone issue. Maybe someone else from Australia can confirm.
 
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Only 10,000 U.S. vehicles were imported to South Korea last year, making up 7 percent of imports.

To my knowledge, there are three globally successful vehicles built in the US:

A] the redesigned and modernized Ford Mustang, the world's [!] best selling "sports car", which shows what can be done when you design an alluring car that slots into target markets. See Surge in Exports Makes Ford Mustang Best-Selling Sports Car on the Planet for 2016 | Ford Media Center

B] and of course, the current Tesla Models S & X [and much more so the 3 when exports beyond NA begin]. Must be said that the width of Models S & X make it anything but a shoe-in internationally.

Jeep as a US vehicle brand is very successful internationally, but production happens locally for China and Europe.

And that's all. China's Geely with Volvo [bought from Ford], and India's Tata with Jaguar / Land Rover [acquired from Ford too] have shown that unleashing local management while providing adequate resources can make all the difference between basket case and success.

Meanwhile, GM now has retreated from Europe, India, Russia, and a host of smaller markets, making the company a provincial pickup-manufacturer with a booming China operation and a very promising investment in autonomous mobility.

The abysmal performance of American automotive companies on the gigantic global market is a home-grown failure, like so much else. The incredible thing is that a company like Tesla has to actually tilt against domestic wind-mills. Er, scratch that, coal magnates.

See also two related graphics I've set aside: SHARE
 
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I'm collecting some data points,
upload_2018-3-27_10-45-37.png
 
This is not a one time thing or a problem with loading a stale version. I’m consistently seeing much lower numbers than others are posting that they are seeing. (975 is still much more than the 881 I’m seeing.) I suspect it may be a time zone issue. Maybe someone else from Australia can confirm.

Just confirming that this is definitely a time zone issue. If I change the time zone on my computer to, say, US pacific time I get 11,189 cars in total and 975 per week. In Sydney I get 11,095 cars in total and 881 per week. In Hawaii I get 11,027 cars in total and 975 per week.

I'll take the TMC estimates over the Bloomberg one.
 
It's crazy to think that they're brainstorming ideas for intentionally complicating EV production so that they can retain jobs. :confused:

It doesn’t sound as crazy when you think about it as humans trying to earn a living wage. If the world did a better job of providing assistance while efficiently retraining affected individuals for modern jobs, these people would not have to “brainstorm ideas for intentionally complicating EV production.” They are simply trying to survive, keep a roof over their family’s heads, and put food on the table. Those who rated the above related posts “funny” are disconnected from this global reality.
 
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To my knowledge, there are three globally successful vehicles built in the US:

U.S. factories exported 2.1 million new made-in-the-USA vehicles valued at $57.5 billion last year , up from 1.95 million vehicles worth $52.5 billion in 2013, the U.S. International Trade Administration reports.

U.S. rings up car exports despite strong dollar

56k American made Ford Explorers were exported to non-Nafta Countries.

Ford sells over 1M cars per year in Europe but doesn't export from the USA very much because of the 10% tariff. As opposed to the 2.5% tariff here. Ford sells primarily mainstream vehicles where 10% makes a huge difference whereas luxury car imports from Europe face a 2.5% tariff which doesn't affect sales very much.

GM is very successful in China but doesn't export from the USA primarily because of the 25% tariff. It sells about 3M cars here per year China. GM is a North American and Chinese car company. It is quite successful in Canada and Mexico too. GM makes a tidy profit selling full size cars and trucks in the Middle East as well.

Exports to Japan are very low in part because of consumer taste and in part due to non tariff trade barriers.

Exports to South Korea were hindered largely by non tariff trade barriers. Now 50k vehicles will be able to be exported without any non tariff trade barrier BS per year.
 
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This is not a one time thing or a problem with loading a stale version. I’m consistently seeing much lower numbers than others are posting that they are seeing. (975 is still much more than the 881 I’m seeing.) I suspect it may be a time zone issue. Maybe someone else from Australia can confirm.

Not Australia but Germany. I experiences the same issues and was assuming it has to do with the time zone. Every time I log in the number visible to me it's much lower than what is posted here.
 
Piece of trivia:
I was number six in line at the Marietta store on March 31. My brothers wife got in line about an hour after the store opened. This past Thursday she received her invite to configure her model three. I would estimate somewhere between 250 to 300 people in between the two of us in line.

Therefore invites are going out at a terrific rate!
I suspect (I should use slightly more firm verbiage) that the surge has most definitely begun!

Just in case delivery store influences invites to configure. She was visiting from St. Louis so her delivery store would be in St. Louis and not in Atlanta.
 
California said to be preparing to retaliate if Trump cuts emissions rules


California intends to counter punch by revoking its "deemed to comply" provision, two people familiar with the matter said. The obscure-but-important state rule declares that carmakers that satisfy the EPA's tailpipe greenhouse gas standards automatically fulfill California's rules too.

California officials started notifying the nine states that follow California's air quality regulations of this prospect last week, the people said.
 
Any update on the installation of the Grohmann battery assembly line?

@Starno said back on 3-10 that it would be installed within the next week (so by now)...

RT

Even if the Grohmann line is already at the Gigafactory, it will ramp throughout 2Q18 per the 10-K, so it may be best to temper expectations. During the VIN Chart related discussion over the weekend, I had thought that last week's estimated increase in production could have only happened if the Grohmann line was already installed and starting to contribute along with the manuautomated line. Yesterday, however, a few lower VINs have appeared, so my estimate of current production rate is back to 1,500/wk to 2,000/wk range, which does not necessitate the Grohmann line. We may get more info on the Grohmann line, which I believe is the key to the stock price, on Sunday or Monday, but more likely in early May.

On the positive side, Norway registrations already broke 100 today. If this morning's pace continues through the day up to 200+ and through Friday at that daily rate, they Norway deliveries may reach 3Q17 levels, which would be a positive indication for the quarter.
 
It doesn’t sound as crazy when you think about it as humans trying to earn a living wage. If the world did a better job of providing assistance while efficiently retraining affected individuals for modern jobs, these people would not have to “brainstorm ideas for intentionally complicating EV production.” They are simply trying to survive, keep a roof over their family’s heads, and put food on the table. Those who rated the above related posts “funny” are disconnected from this global reality.

Agreed. But if those companies would brainstorm the same way to communicate to the government to create " training program " and some kind of " assisting income " ... it would be better.
Instead of thinking about slowing down evolution.
 
Agreed. But if those companies would brainstorm the same way to communicate to the government to create " training program " and some kind of " assisting income " ... it would be better.
Instead of thinking about slowing down evolution.

Ok, this issue is so important to the world, but I don't want to get too off-topic in this forum, so this is my last short post on this.

When as Americans we think of phrases like "saving the world" and "communicating to the government," I think we may be missing the point. While we enjoy many privileges, and even though most of us don't see them as privileges, the global reality is that, in many parts of the world, there are people who have to provide for their families for a full year with less than what many of us spend on private club memberships. Think about that disconnect for a moment.

Screen Shot 2018-03-27 at 8.16.18 AM.png


For one minute, put yourself in this guy's inescapable reality.

Are you thinking about saving the world or communicating to the government?
 
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Ok, this issue is so important to the world, but I don't want to get too off-topic in this forum, so this is my last short post on this.

When as Americans we think of phrases like "saving the world" and "communicating to the government," I think we may be missing the point. While we enjoy many privileges, and even though most of us don't see them as privileges, the global reality is that, in many parts of the world, there are people who have to provide for their families for a full year with less than what many of us spend on private club memberships. Think about that disconnect for a moment.

View attachment 289563

For one minute, put yourself in this guy's reality.

Are you thinking about saving the world or communicating to your government?


All I'm saying is that the legacy automakers are trying to save their factory employees by slowing down the evolution towards EV.
I think that's a mistake, they should save their factory employees by petitioning to the government to create some kind of training program and assisting income until the workers can be productive in the new way of creating vehicle.
 
Would be nice if their upcoming full review not only has a much higher opinion of AP, but, includes this great example of how much OTA updates, hardly found in any form anywhere but Tesla, can improve the experience of owning one of these cars.

This! It was so aggravating to me when the initial Consumer Reports review failed to even mention OTA (especially while dinging autopilot).

How can any review miss this ground-breaking capability that only Teslas have?
 
On the positive side, Norway registrations already broke 100 today. If this morning's pace continues through the day up to 200+ and through Friday at that daily rate, then Norway deliveries may reach 3Q17 levels, which would be a positive indication for the quarter.

Norway is about to cross 150, so 50 in 90 minutes.

If this morning's pace continues through Friday, then Norway deliveries may exceed 3Q17, which would be a positive surprise.
 
Piece of trivia:
I was number six in line at the Marietta store on March 31. My brothers wife got in line about an hour after the store opened. This past Thursday she received her invite to configure her model three. I would estimate somewhere between 250 to 300 people in between the two of us in line.

Therefore invites are going out at a terrific rate!
I suspect (I should use slightly more firm verbiage) that the surge has most definitely begun!

Just in case delivery store influences invites to configure. She was visiting from St. Louis so her delivery store would be in St. Louis and not in Atlanta.

How much earlier than her were you able to configure?

I was about 125 - 150 in Marietta line. Noticed I could configure this past Friday morning. Unfortunately not willing to stretch to $50k. So I have the excitement of being able to configure forced to be combined with the extreme restraint required to not actually go through with it. It's nice to know I can order at any time though if I change my mind.
 
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