FSD With Purchase Or Wait

[jebinc]

Prediction: FSD is geofenced to Fremont when they roll it out.

"Feature Complete," Check!

 

[r1200gs4ok]

So I'm planning on getting a model 3 next month and deliberating if i should buy FSD with purchase or not. If you believe Elon's timeline about how good it will get, then I think its an easy buy right now (before the price goes up). I would say currently Nav on Auto pilot is only worth about 2-3k more to me at the moment than AP, but I'm afraid if i wait to buy post purchase, the price may rise a lot more.

Curious on others thoughts on this and if current owners have seen enough progression in the software to think Elon's given timeline may be accurate.

you snooze you lose.....dont wait.....buy it now....iFSD will be coming soon.....thats why you cannot buy your car if it is leased.....its going into the “taxi mode"

 

[pdx_m3s]

you snooze you lose.....dont wait.....buy it now....iFSD will be coming soon.....thats why you cannot buy your car if it is leased.....its going into the “taxi mode"

I hope you’re being sarcastic.

 

[jebinc]

you snooze you lose.....dont wait.....buy it now....iFSD will be coming soon.....thats why you cannot buy your car if it is leased.....its going into the “taxi mode"

Like some OEMs, thosenOEMs don’t like lease returns or rentals flooding the market driving new car prices down. That’s a more likely the reason. Another likely reason is to generate feedstock forntheir new over priced used Tesla sales play. In aerospace, we used to buy up used parts and scrap them so we kept new OEM spare part prices high. Just some other thoughts to counter the effects of the Kool-Aid.

 

[r1200gs4ok]

my brother in law just leased his m3.....in the contract it states you will not be able to buy it at the end of the lease.......nothing sarcastic about that.....also, what do you think Tesla is going to do with those used cars.....taxi fleet when FSD is approved

 

[jebinc]

my brother in law just leased his m3.....in the contract it states you will not be able to buy it at the end of the lease.......nothing sarcastic about that.....also, what do you think Tesla is going to do with those used cars.....taxi fleet when FSD is approved

See post 144, that’s my answer to your question.

 

[r1200gs4ok]

Like some OEMs, thosenOEMs don’t like lease returns or rentals flooding the market driving new car prices down. That’s a more likely the reason. Another likely reason is to generate feedstock forntheir new over priced used Tesla sales play. In aerospace, we used to buy up used parts and scrap them so we kept new OEM spare part prices high. Just some other thoughts to counter the effects of the Kool-Aid.

I worked for ITT Cannon and Hughes for over 25 years......we would get back equipment and salvage what we could....we could not sell used parts as new.....Tesla is going to refurb the leased cars for taxi’s..

 

[jebinc]

I worked for ITT Cannon and Hughes for over 25 years......we would get back equipment and salvage what we could....we could not sell used parts as new.....Tesla is going to refurb the leased cars for taxi’s..

Tesla is already selling traded in Tesla’s as part of their new used car sales thrust. The lease returns would feed that new used car sales channel.......

 

[r1200gs4ok]

Tesla is already selling traded in Tesla’s as part of their new used car sales thrust. The lease returns would feed that new used car sales channel.......

not talking about trade-ins.......talking about leased vehicles......the leased vehicles have a mileage limitation or you pay penalties.......so they will take them and move them into the robotaxi fleet.....

 

[Sir Guacamolaf]

my brother in law just leased his m3.....in the contract it states you will not be able to buy it at the end of the lease.......nothing sarcastic about that.....also, what do you think Tesla is going to do with those used cars.....taxi fleet when FSD is approved

This is exactly what Elon said on autonomy day. And you know what? He is full of chocolate. He has always been. And you fell for it too.

Lease returns will fuel used car sales and refurbished battery products, such as powerwalls. Not robotaxis. Seriously get over this concept that next year you’ll sleep as the car drives. It will happen but it’ll happen much further down the road.

 

[willow_hiller]

Latest tweet from Elon claims he's planning on raising the price of FSD every 2-4 months as more features roll out Elon Musk on Twitter

As always, take Elon's confidence with a grain of salt, but he seems really confident this time...

 

[jebinc]

not talking about trade-ins.......talking about leased vehicles......the leased vehicles have a mileage limitation or you pay penalties.......so they will take them and move them into the robotaxi fleet.....

Whatever. I believe they will take them back and resell them as used cars for high margin profit. YMMV.

 

[jebinc]

Latest tweet from Elon claims he's planning on raising the price of FSD every 2-4 months as more features roll out Elon Musk on Twitter

As always, take Elon's confidence with a grain of salt, but he seems really confident this time...

I believe, as has been the case in the past, that The Charlatan will over hype the future to bring in revenue (and high margin profit like selling FSD for $6000), today.

 

[Sir Guacamolaf]

v10 has the following,
- Caraoke
- Enhanced summon (which you will never use)
- Youtube/Netflix

I don't know why everyone is so pumped about it.
I may be the minority here, but I don't care about in-car games, caraoke, youtube, netflix, mspaint or fart noises.
I care more about bringing insurance costs and repair times down, and improving service centers.

 

[cucubits]

v10 has the following,
- Caraoke
- Enhanced summon (which you will never use)
- Youtube/Netflix

I don't know why everyone is so pumped about it.
I may be the minority here, but I don't care about in-car games, caraoke, youtube, netflix, mspaint or fart noises.
I care more about bringing insurance costs and repair times down, and improving service centers.

...and phantom braking. I keep hearing that in the latest updates it's got much worse. But yeah, good that they release new games :|

 

[jebinc]

v10 has the following,
- Caraoke
- Enhanced summon (which you will never use)
- Youtube/Netflix

I don't know why everyone is so pumped about it.
I may be the minority here, but I don't care about in-car games, caraoke, youtube, netflix, mspaint or fart noises.
I care more about bringing insurance costs and repair times down, and improving service centers.

“Carayoke” - more parlor tricks and gimmicks... Do people here really believe that raising the FSD price every 2-4 months, from the current $6000 price (for these kind of enhancements) is really going to happen, sans substantive functionality? Wow. Of course, YMMV.

 

[Octo]

“Carayoke” - more parlor tricks and gimmicks... Do people here really believe that raising the FSD price every 2-4 months, from the current $6000 price (for these kind of enhancements) is really going to happen, sans substantive functionality? Wow. Of course, YMMV.

I don’t really get that either. Torschlusspanik only goes so far. If one doesn’t get caught up in the hype and evaluates this rationally, the realistic (L2) value of these features is nowhere near $6000.

And to those who think their current car will become a L5 robotaxi for $6000: LMAO!

 

[cucubits]

I feel there is a high chance that this approach will backfire hard at Tesla. At $6k let's say I could talk myself into getting it mostly for the party tricks like summon and autopark, maybe auto lane change on the very rare roadtrips. But, if they keep increasing the price, it'll end up being way more expensive that it's worth for some haf/non-working features. People will realize this (of course not the delusional believe-everything-musk-says ones) and they will stop paying for it untill FSD actually will be worth it. What Tesla won't admit is that this gap could end up years and years long.

 

[willow_hiller]

Do people here really believe that raising the FSD price every 2-4 months, from the current $6000 price (for these kind of enhancements) is really going to happen, sans substantive functionality? Wow. Of course, YMMV.

We'll have our first real test in about two weeks. We're supposed to have a $1,000 increase along with Enhanced Summon. It will be interesting to see how things shake out:

1. ES released on/before August 16th, price increase occurs around August 16th
2. ES released after August 16th, price increase around August 16th anyway
3. ES released on/before August 16th, no price increase occurs
4. ES released after August 16th, no price increase occurs (until ES is released?)

Given the fact that V10 hasn't been released to the Early Access folks yet, I think likelihood of scenarios 1 and 3 are pretty slim. Most interest will be whether price increase happens regardless of features.

 

[jebinc]

We'll have our first real test in about two weeks. We're supposed to have a $1,000 increase along with Enhanced Summon. It will be interesting to see how things shake out:

1. ES released on/before August 16th, price increase occurs around August 16th
2. ES released after August 16th, price increase around August 16th anyway
3. ES released on/before August 16th, no price increase occurs
4. ES released after August 16th, no price increase occurs (until ES is released?)

Given the fact that V10 hasn't been released to the Early Access folks yet, I think likelihood of scenarios 1 and 3 are pretty slim. Most interest will be whether price increase happens regardless of features.

#4 has been my prediction in TMC for a while and I’m sticking with it! All of that talk by The Charlatan is to drive high margin revenue now, IMHO. YMMV.