FSD With Purchase Or Wait

[Daniel in SD]

You won't see FULL FSD in the life of your vehicle. Still too many roadblocks ahead. You really believe states governments will agree with that in a near future? Not me...

Plenty of states are very enthusiastic about autonomous vehicles, including Maryland, @VT_EE 's state.
Maryland Connected and Automated Vehicles

 

[VT_EE]

Plenty of states are very enthusiastic about autonomous vehicles, including Maryland, @VT_EE 's state.
Maryland Connected and Automated Vehicles

Here's hoping there's some FSD action in the next 12 months. All I really want in the near term is Maryland to let me read a book while sitting in I95 traffic.

 

[Knightshade]

Here's hoping there's some FSD action in the next 12 months. All I really want in the near term is Maryland to let me read a book while sitting in I95 traffic.

You're asking for L3 (or higher).

I think there's roughly a 0% chance Tesla (or anyone else) will enable anything above L2 as long as there's 50 different states worth of regulations on it to worry about.

Imagine the nightmare of having to turn various driver assist or self-driving features on/off anytime you cross state lines...in a car where the driver isn't required to pay attention.... (especially in a place like say southern MD would you can cross them 2 or 3 times in different states in a very short period of time)

 

[Daniel in SD]

You're asking for L3 (or higher).

I think there's roughly a 0% chance Tesla (or anyone else) will enable anything above L2 as long as there's 50 different states worth of regulations on it to worry about.

Imagine the nightmare of having to turn various driver assist or self-driving features on/off anytime you cross state lines...in a car where the driver isn't required to pay attention.... (especially in a place like say southern MD would you can cross them 2 or 3 times in different states in a very short period of time)

You’ll have to enter a destination in to nav to use FSD. Geofencing it to states where it’s legal seems like a trivial problem. It seems like half of Teslas are in California, we rarely drive across state lines, and autonomous vehicles are legal here.
FSD is a ridiculously difficult problem and there is almost zero chance our cars will ever be above level 2 so this is sort of a silly argument.

 

[A321ELAC]

You’ll have to enter a destination in to nav to use FSD. Geofencing it to states where it’s legal seems like a trivial problem. It seems like half of Teslas are in California, we rarely drive across state lines, and autonomous vehicles are legal here.
FSD is a ridiculously difficult problem and there is almost zero chance our cars will ever be above level 2 so this is sort of a silly argument.

Are you more qualified to have this opinion than the people at Tesla who say the Model 3 will have FSD?

 

[Daniel in SD]

Are you more qualified to have this opinion than the people at Tesla who say the Model 3 will have FSD?

I guess we'll see! The track record of autonomous vehicle "experts" has been absolutely horrendous. I think you've got to be a bit irrationally confident to attempt to develop FSD. I suppose it's worth it since the payoff for success would be astronomical.

 

[willow_hiller]

I guess we'll see! The track record of autonomous vehicle "experts" has been absolutely horrendous. I think you've got to be a bit irrationally confident to attempt to develop FSD. I suppose it's worth it since the payoff for success would be astronomical.

To be fair, whether or not we believe Tesla will launch FSD this year or in years to come, they have financial incentives to continue to be optimistic and tell us it's coming soon. Optimism isn't a bad thing; without it they wouldn't even try solving such a complex problem. But there's no need for all of us to get irrationally optimistic!

 

[Knightshade]

You’ll have to enter a destination in to nav to use FSD. Geofencing it to states where it’s legal seems like a trivial problem.

Except it might be differently-legal in different states (almost certainly will be in fact)

So now it has to know the laws in all 50 states- and be updated anytime any of the 50 change- and be set up to deal with crossing state lines on top of that (which is more or less common in some states.... I was in MD 2 weeks ago for example and crossed between MD, DC, and VA multiple times over just 2 days)

Because if they slip in any of those requirements and updates they're suddenly illegally operating tens of thousands of cars.

It seems like half of Teslas are in California, we rarely drive across state lines, and autonomous vehicles are legal here.

In general? No, they aren't legal in CA. Testing of them is. but even then you need a permit, MFG-supplied insurance, and a certified/known-to-the-state driver in CA.

https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/c...essAV_Adopted_Regulatory_Text.pdf?MOD=AJPERES

 

[Peteski]

Are you more qualified to have this opinion than the people at Tesla who say the Model 3 will have FSD?

From past experience of Tesla FSD claims and timescales, I would say he probably is!

 

[jedi2b]

the way I see it, Tesla's FSD marketing sounds dangerously close to a (very expensive) kickstarter campaign. You are buying a promise under the pretext it will be cheaper for you compared to regular buyers and you might receive extra goodies.

Kickstarter pledgers rarelly receive what they wished for, with some notable exceptions.

If somebody feels confident with the kickstarter concept, I would expect him/her to find Tesla's approach reasonable and worth a try.
I participated in exactly one such crowfunding effort and decided it was not worth it, after receiving the promised merchandise. Your mileage may vary.

I'm ok with paying full price when and if the finished product is worth the admission price. In the meantime, I'm pretty sure Tesla can find other sources of financing than my money and at the same time I won't hold any hard feelings aganst Tesla for underdelivering, if such thing comes to happen.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Except it might be differently-legal in different states (almost certainly will be in fact)

Right now different states have different insurance requirements for non autonomous vehicles and people are still able to drive across state lines. It seems like the primary differences in legality would be the different traffic laws in different states (e.g. no right turn on red in NY). I think you're probably right that there will be some sort national regulation before Tesla releases a level 3-5 vehicle but only because it's going to be many year before it happens, I don't think it's going to be an impediment.

In general? No, they aren't legal in CA. Testing of them is. but even then you need a permit, MFG-supplied insurance, and a certified/known-to-the-state driver in CA.

Yes, they are legal in the same sense that driving is legal, you need a permit (which as far as I know no one has ever applied for because no one has a functional autonomous vehicle).
https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/c...89c5-b2bc7de3fd2c/ol321.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CVID=

 

[Knightshade]

Right now different states have different insurance requirements for non autonomous vehicles and people are still able to drive across state lines.

That's apples and hand grenades.

Like not even vaguely remotely comparable

(Generally car insurance policies automatically adjust to out of state requirements when driving in them- google broadening clause if you're unclear on this-but since this doesn't require vehicle-functional changes it's not remotely comparable to what we're discussing- your car doesn't ever need to know, or care, if the $ value of your liability coverage changed when you crossed the state line)

It seems like the primary differences in legality would be the different traffic laws in different states (e.g. no right turn on red in NY).

Someday maybe it'd be just that (and indeed there'd already be a lot of complexity to JUST that- knowing what states it's illegal to do various things in versus where it's legal). But that's not all the differences are today. Or tomorrow.

Today it's things like:

"In this state it's fine to let the car drive by itself, no human even needed, as long as it obeys the states traffic laws" (situation you mention"

but also

"in this neighboring state you can't let the car drive by itself at all"

But also

"In this state that borders both the previous states you can let the car drive, but only under specific conditions X, Y, or Z"


So the car would have to be aware of all 50 states restrictions (and potentially hundreds or thousands of local/county ones too if the state doesn't have a preemption law on the books for this- and right now some DO NOT), have to safely handle switching on/off what the car is allowed to do as it crosses borders even when it's in a mode NOT requiring driver attention (or even a driver!), and also keep those 50 (or potentially way more) different sets of rules always current to avoid having tens of thousands of illegally operating cars on the road.


To a company that hasn't cracked the mystery of adding waypoints to its factory nav that kind of back-end organization seems daunting even if they get the actual driving part perfect

Yes, they are legal in the same sense that driving is legal, you need a permit (which as far as I know no one has ever applied for because no one has a functional autonomous vehicle).
https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/c...89c5-b2bc7de3fd2c/ol321.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CVID=

Right- so like I said, they're not legal IN GENERAL. They require special permission.

FWIW many companies have permits for testing such vehicles on public roads-
Permit Holders

But even then it requires a human driver (and one registered with the state as such a driver per the previous link I provided)[/B]

 

[Knightshade]

the way I see it, Tesla's FSD marketing sounds dangerously close to a (very expensive) kickstarter campaign. You are buying a promise under the pretext it will be cheaper for you compared to regular buyers and you might receive extra goodies.

Kickstarter pledgers rarelly receive what they wished for, with some notable exceptions.

I think you are confusing 2 different things.

The majority of kickstarter projects fail to reach their funding goal- that's true. Roughly 2 out of 3 fail there.

In which case everyone who paid gets a full refund.

For projects that DO fund however over 90% of them deliver was was promised (though some do have delays on the way to doing so)

Kickstarter Fulfillment Report

 

[Daniel in SD]

Right- so like I said, they're not legal IN GENERAL. They require special permission.

They're legal in the same sense that I can legally drive in California, I needed to apply for a license.

That's apples and hand grenades.

Like not even vaguely remotely comparable.

The law in California is actually quite simple. The car is allowed to drive itself under the conditions that it is capable of driving. I don't really see that as likely to be different in other states.

Anyway, half of all Model 3's are sold in California (Bloomberg - Are you a robot?) and we rarely cross state lines so it would be stupid of Tesla to wait until there are national regulations to release FSD. Being first to market and working with regulators gives you a lot of leverage in determining how the national laws are written.

 

[Knightshade]

They're legal in the same sense that I can legally drive in California, I needed to apply for a license.

Again a missing-the-point analogy like the insurance one.

Once you have your CA license- you can use it anywhere in the US.

Not so if you get a CA autonomous car permit.

The law in California is actually quite simple. The car is allowed to drive itself under the conditions that it is capable of driving. I don't really see that as likely to be different in other states.

And yet, it currently is different. As I mention right now there's 50 different states, many of which have different rules for self driving cars- and many of which have NO RULES AT ALL or explicitly forbid them.


If all 50 states did have the same rules this problem would go away, but that's not the case.

In Oregon for example (which borders CA to hit your next point early), they think they'll probably get around to having some real rules in 2021 maybe...

Driverless cars running on empty Oregon regulations — for now

Anyway, half of all Model 3's are sold in California (Bloomberg - Are you a robot?) and we rarely cross state lines

Weird claim given how often I see posts discussing if their car can make it from LA to Vegas without stopping....

But "will only do illegal things rarely" probably isn't all that compelling an argument anyway.

 

[Daniel in SD]

And yet, it currently is different. As I mention right now there's 50 different states, many of which have different rules for self driving cars- and many of which have NO RULES AT ALL or explicitly forbid them.


If all 50 states did have the same rules this problem would go away, but that's not the case.

I'm just saying that the states where it is legal have similar rules. You haven't really provided an example of a rule difference that would make a significant difference in the way the system operates in the different states where it is legal.
I really don't see the problem with making the system not let you enter a route that crosses into a state where it is illegal. I would bet that the vast majority of Californians drive across the state line less than once a year.

 

[jedi2b]

I think you are confusing 2 different things.

The majority of kickstarter projects fail to reach their funding goal- that's true. Roughly 2 out of 3 fail there.

In which case everyone who paid gets a full refund.

For projects that DO fund however over 90% of them deliver was was promised (though some do have delays on the way to doing so)

Kickstarter Fulfillment Report

What I'm referring to is the fact that, most of the time, when somebody buys into some sort of crowfunding, the exact spoecs of the product they are eventually going to receive are vague, at best. Such person has expectations regarding the finalized product that might or might not become true when product is delivered.

Going back to FSD, somebody may decide to crowfund this effort having all sorts of expectations regarding the capabilities of such software. Right now the manufacturer description is vague at best.

If one waits until the product is out, you know what you are buying. Right now, nobody knows what Tesla's FSD is going to be like, one would be buying on the hype, mostly. YMMV.

 

[john85775]

You're asking for L3 (or higher).
Imagine the nightmare of having to turn various driver assist or self-driving features on/off anytime you cross state lines...in a car where the driver isn't required to pay attention.... (especially in a place like say southern MD would you can cross them 2 or 3 times in different states in a very short period of time)

EAP is already location sensitive.... highway ramps, city streets and segments of highway that are mixed use cause speed cap changes.

 

[Knightshade]

EAP is already location sensitive.... highway ramps, city streets and segments of highway that are mixed use cause speed cap changes.

There's a grand canyon sized gap between "Car might reduce speed some places" and "Car driving 100% by itself you aren't at all required to pay attention to whatsoever suddenly stops driving by itself because it crossed a geo boundary"

 

[Knightshade]

What I'm referring to is the fact that, most of the time, when somebody buys into some sort of crowfunding, the exact spoecs of the product they are eventually going to receive are vague, at best. Such person has expectations regarding the finalized product that might or might not become true when product is delivered.

Yes, but you're factually wrong claiming that's how kickstarters usually turn out.

There was a whole big study on this topic. More than 9/10 that fund deliver what the promised, and the strong majority of customers are happy with the product provided.