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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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well darn it. I'd just started thinking that I was happy that I hadn't got 11.4.2 yet and the car starts downloading it.
In for a penny I suppose.
I'll be doing by 100 mile weekend camping trip again this weekend, so I'll get a direct comparison how it does.
So far 11.3.6 has been the most stable of the more recent releases on this particular trip, so it will be interesting with 11.4.2
Also interestingly, it has so far downloaded just under a gig, and has paused at 50% - That hasn't been caused by my network so I'm guessing that maybe it has to download in steps then do something with the first half before starting on the next bit.
 
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Yea and it used to stop, I would nudge it forward to the sensor with the accelerator and once the gate opened it would continue through. Not anymore.
It looks like it was thinking about stopping for a moment but in the end had no plan to stop. It might be more comforting if the UI rendered residential gates so the driver would know FSD had a clue.
 
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Well, if I do, I was also hoping to opt for the excessive rear tire wear package, if that’s possible?
I was just on the phone with my son who recently subscribed to try FSDb. We were talking about how FSD likes to spin the steering wheel while at 0 mph, which is also an effective front l-tire wear mechanism.

I've never tried any of the games , but he told me about a driving game he found in the Tesla that uses the real steering wheel as the game's steering controller. The thing is, Tesla doesn't have a true steer-by-wire connection, so the steering wheel remains connected to the car's power steering at all times.

So when you play the game, you're constantly scrubbing the tires, not to mention putting maximum load on the power steering mechanism. This is unbelievable to me.

A bonus "free" game we have that could get pretty expensive if you actually play it.
 
Let me start with I haven’t driven 11.4.2 yet. It’s installing now.

I simply do not understand how anyone out there still believes this crap, “At this pace, we will achieve self driving safer than a human this year.” Seriously!? What pace? Most of my trouble spots from 10.2 all those years (year) ago are still there in 11.3.6? How can this be called pace at all? There has been no “eureka moment,” and there never will be. I know Chuck talked about a chatGPT moment, but chatGPT is a fundamentally different product that doesn’t kill people when it makes mistakes, it only gets people Fs on exams.

With each update we continue to have hope. We continue to believe that it is 🔥or even 🔥🔥. Oh, but yet we are always disheartened with each drive after an update. An update supposed to be 🔥 is nothing more than a slight improvement, or sometimes a regression.

And now, our suspicions have been confirmed. We HW3 owners are doomed. HW4 has arrived.
Yes, they are still saying that HW3 will achieve FSD (of some sort), but as soon as all cars have moved to HW4 and people have bought all the HW3 cars, Tesla’s attitude toward HW3 will start to change.
We have seen this movie before. How is HW2.5 doing these days? I thought that those cars would be able to drive themselves? Oh wait.
I say T-minus one year before HW4 starts on a different, better, software track than HW3. The problem of self driving was not solvable on HW3, so they fixed it with hardware.
 
I was just on the phone with my son who recently subscribed to try FSDb. We were talking about how FSD likes to spin the steering wheel while at 0 mph, which is also an effective front l-tire wear mechanism.

I've never tried any of the games , but he told me about a driving game he found in the Tesla that uses the real steering wheel as the game's steering controller. The thing is, Tesla doesn't have a true steer-by-wire connection, so the steering wheel remains connected to the car's power steering at all times.

So when you play the game, you're constantly scrubbing the tires, not to mention putting maximum load on the power steering mechanism. This is unbelievable to me.

A bonus "free" game we have that could get pretty expensive if you actually play it.
The wear to the front tires is so minimal it doesn’t matter. Play the game, have fun.
 
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Let me start with I haven’t driven 11.4.2 yet. It’s installing now.

I simply do not understand how anyone out there still believes this crap, “At this pace, we will achieve self driving safer than a human this year.” Seriously!? What pace? Most of my trouble spots from 10.2 all those years (year) ago are still there in 11.3.6? How can this be called pace at all? There has been no “eureka moment,” and there never will be. I know Chuck talked about a chatGPT moment, but chatGPT is a fundamentally different product that doesn’t kill people when it makes mistakes, it only gets people Fs on exams.

With each update we continue to have hope. We continue to believe that it is 🔥or even 🔥🔥. Oh, but yet we are always disheartened with each drive after an update. An update supposed to be 🔥 is nothing more than a slight improvement, or sometimes a regression.

And now, our suspicions have been confirmed. We HW3 owners are doomed. HW4 has arrived.
Yes, they are still saying that HW3 will achieve FSD (of some sort), but as soon as all cars have moved to HW4 and people have bought all the HW3 cars, Tesla’s attitude toward HW3 will start to change.
We have seen this movie before. How is HW2.5 doing these days? I thought that those cars would be able to drive themselves? Oh wait.
I say T-minus one year before HW4 starts on a different, better, software track than HW3. The problem of self driving was not solvable on HW3, so they fixed it with hardware.
I thought you just said "Anger has ceased".

But you're just staying warmed up for your first drive report, I can understand. :)
 
First quick drive on 11.4.2:

Errant turn signal use is greatly improved. Only one case where I used to have many, so that's good.

More aggressive on UPLs, UPRs and turns at stop signs.

Seems to be smoother response to lead cars turning off the road, though needs more cases for evaluation.

Only disconnect was the car tried to run a stop sign at a weird intersection that it always has had issues. I guess perfection is still slightly out of grasp!
 
There is some bug they have introduced in 11.4.2 around planning. It's not a regression... FSD never did these kinds of things in any previous release.
Although somwhat different than what is drescribed above I have 2 routes that incorrectly have me turn right then a U-Turn in about 200 feet right in the middle of the road. I've let this play out and once FSD considers doing a U-turn a message is displayed that FSD does not support the maneuver. The correct navigation is simply turn left. I reported this to Tesla after every release since 10/2021. I've had several map updates during that time.
 
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Let me start with I haven’t driven 11.4.2 yet. It’s installing now.

I simply do not understand how anyone out there still believes this crap, “At this pace, we will achieve self driving safer than a human this year.” Seriously!? What pace? Most of my trouble spots from 10.2 all those years (year) ago are still there in 11.3.6? How can this be called pace at all? There has been no “eureka moment,” and there never will be. I know Chuck talked about a chatGPT moment, but chatGPT is a fundamentally different product that doesn’t kill people when it makes mistakes, it only gets people Fs on exams.

With each update we continue to have hope. We continue to believe that it is 🔥or even 🔥🔥. Oh, but yet we are always disheartened with each drive after an update. An update supposed to be 🔥 is nothing more than a slight improvement, or sometimes a regression.

And now, our suspicions have been confirmed. We HW3 owners are doomed. HW4 has arrived.
Yes, they are still saying that HW3 will achieve FSD (of some sort), but as soon as all cars have moved to HW4 and people have bought all the HW3 cars, Tesla’s attitude toward HW3 will start to change.
We have seen this movie before. How is HW2.5 doing these days? I thought that those cars would be able to drive themselves? Oh wait.
I say T-minus one year before HW4 starts on a different, better, software track than HW3. The problem of self driving was not solvable on HW3, so they fixed it with hardware.
Don't bite on the promise above but I do believe this year that when FSD is supervised by a good driver FSD will be safer then just a human.
 
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Just got back from 5 days in Bangkok.
They have the best hemorrhoid cream. Yes @Ramphex I got you some.
Are we still on 2023.7.1 ?
Btw, my yoke started peeling, I put a service request in and they were out of yokes until July and offered a wheel for free... what should I do?
I use the wheel in my MY and yoke in MS and personally prefer the yoke. If it’s just cosmetic then **** it, wear this one out until they can provide you with a new one. As long as they commit to it.
 
Don't bite on the promise above but I do believe this year that when FSD is supervised by a good driver FSD will be safer then just a human.
I think they should make it so there’s two drivers in both front seats supervising the Tesla driving on “full SELF driving”

That’ll definitely make it safer than a human, maybe even safer than multiple humans.