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First year depreciation number?

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Actually you don't, you risk your life every time you drive in snow.
AWD has no positive effect on braking at all. All season tires are not for any location that gets temperatures that approach freezing.
Winter tires have way more effect than AWD on ability to drive in snow, on ice, or even on dry (but cold) pavement.

The OP here...

Lazy? Not really.

I do wonder about the timing of when to change to winter tires. Here in Northern AZ, we can get an early snowstorm in November that clogs up I-17 N from 50 miles south of Flag the rest of the way into town. Blizzards are not unkown in early April.

To be sure I'd be ready, I'd have to change to winter tires pretty early in the season, and keep them on until the chance of a late spring storm is over. But between storms, the weather can be mild.

AWD Tesla would give me much, but not all, of the snow tire advantage without having to worry about when to change tire sets, and not needing them when the weather is good.

That's how I see it, but I may not be correct.
 
The OP here...

Lazy? Not really.

I do wonder about the timing of when to change to winter tires. Here in Northern AZ, we can get an early snowstorm in November that clogs up I-17 N from 50 miles south of Flag the rest of the way into town. Blizzards are not unkown in early April.

To be sure I'd be ready, I'd have to change to winter tires pretty early in the season, and keep them on until the chance of a late spring storm is over. But between storms, the weather can be mild.

AWD Tesla would give me much, but not all, of the snow tire advantage without having to worry about when to change tire sets, and not needing them when the weather is good.

That's how I see it, but I may not be correct.
Sorry, you're wrong. AWD does not give you "much" of the snow tire advantage, snow tires give you 95%, AWD gives you 5%. If you only do one thing, make it the tires, not the AWD.

Keep in mind that AWD does ZERO, NADA, NOTHING, to help you slow the vehicle down, something that can be a bit important sometimes when driving.
 
AWD Tesla would give me much, but not all, of the snow tire advantage without having to worry about when to change tire sets, and not needing them when the weather is good.

That's how I see it, but I may not be correct.

Thank you for being open minded. That is indeed not correct. AWD will only help you to get going from stop. It will not help with handling in snow. Don't listen to novices like me. Listen to professionals and watch the videos. Get winter tires.
 
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Slip vs grip: In lower temperatures, the special compound in winter tires can prevent an accident by providing significantly shorter stopping distances. Greater contact with the road surface, means better performance. A white-knuckle miss vs. controlled handling. Take a closer look!
stopping distance.jpg

CR-Cars-II-Winter-Tires-Rule-09-15.jpg
 
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Thank you for being open minded. That is indeed not correct. AWD will only help you to get going from stop. It will not help with handling in snow. Don't listen to novices like me. Listen to professionals and watch the videos. Get winter tires.


Next open-minded question for you and others.

So for now let's say I keep the RWD Model S, and get a set of 4 Hakkas, or some other good winter tires.

How much will the snow tires affect my energy consumption? I would that, for a given driving style on dry roads, snow tires would have more rolling resistance?

I am averaging 304 wh/hours per mile over 13000 miles

Does anyone have comparison figures?
 
I've got a late 2014 Model S 85 with AP and tech package, and just over 13,000 miles. Multi-coat red, tan leather, standard sound, coils, dual chargers, LTE upgrade. Not at all a stripper but not completely loaded

I'm moving to from Southern Arizona (no snow) to Flagstaff in Northern AZ, which can get lots of snow. I drive PHX-Flagstaf a lot, and I-17 north of the Verde Valley is steep and can get snow.

The hill into the Flagstaff subdivision is long and a bit steep in parts. I am considering selling my 85 and getting an 85D for better snow driving.

I've read the various threads complaining about how bad the first year's depreciation is, but I have not seen a real figure for the average depreciation amount.

What do people think is a good number to assume for first year depreciation as I determine my asking price for a private sale?

10%...15%...20%...?

50% sounds about right. Let me know the exact second it hits the market! ;)

More seriously, great to see the community here chime in with such useful info about switching to a snowy environment. And remember: Norway had a **ton** of happy owners before AWD was even an option.
 
Next open-minded question for you and others.

So for now let's say I keep the RWD Model S, and get a set of 4 Hakkas, or some other good winter tires.

How much will the snow tires affect my energy consumption? I would that, for a given driving style on dry roads, snow tires would have more rolling resistance?

I am averaging 304 wh/hours per mile over 13000 miles

Does anyone have comparison figures?

Your energy consumption in cold weather is going to be significantly higher (best guess 10%-20%) irrespective of the tires. This is because of the chemistry of the battery and the use of heat in the car. You can play with numbers on EV Trip Planner to get a better idea for your specific route and temperature.

I haven't yet found (still looking) a reliable independent information that says that the energy consumption with winter tires are much different from that of all season tires.

Here is some useful information about tires in general. The best gas-saving car tires -Consumer Reports

Michelin X-Ice Xi3 seem to have good rolling resistance, but as the video on the above page says - look for performance of the tires first and use rolling resistance only as a tie breaker.
 
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Your energy consumption in cold weather is going to be significantly higher (best guess 10%-20%) irrespective of the tires. This is because of the chemistry of the battery and the use of heat in the car. You can play with numbers on EV Trip Planner to get a better idea for your specific route and temperature.

I haven't yet found (still looking) a reliable independent information that says that the energy consumption with winter tires are much different from that of all season tires.

Here is some useful information about tires in general. The best gas-saving car tires -Consumer Reports

Michelin X-Ice Xi3 seem to have good rolling resistance, but as the video on the above page says - look for performance of the tires first and use rolling resistance only as a tie breaker.

Thanks...I know all about higher energy consumption due to cold weather.

I'm trying to learn if, all things being equal, winter tires cause in increase in energy usage.
 
Sure, with the same tire, RWD and FWD are safer in the snow than an AWD. This is because the RWD and FWD cars can't get out of my driveway while the AWD car has no problem. RWD and FWD cars stuck in my driveway are a lot safer then my AWD car driving on the road. And yes, absolutely true experience.

I don't buy AWD cars to stop, I buy AWD cars to go.
 
Clearly people have a lot more data on this than me, but as a previous owner of an RSX (FWD), WRX STI (AWD), Durango (4WD), Tundra (4WD), Volt (FWD) and Corvette (RWD) and living in KY/Cincinnati with moderate snowing, I have done a lot of "testing". Personally, the advantages of AWD/4WD are obvious to me and I have vowed to never be without one in my garage in some capacity.

Obviously snow tires can make a big difference, regardless of drive type. But I just don't agree that AWD/4WD is THAT MUCH less important than improved tires.

Exception: the tires that came stock on the STI I had were a joke in even heavy rain! Z-rated is great for the track but not ideal for, you know, DRIVING. Made the change to winter tires on those and the car drove like a tank.

Just my $0.02!