Fast Vs Free Poll - A poll to understand usage patterns for SCs and Battery swaps

[nwdiver]

I find it difficult to believe that more than a few people a month would use a swap station especially when there is a free supercharger next to it. You could pose a similar question to ICE owners... "would you wait at a gas station 40 minutes if it meant your tank was free?" So far, everyone I've asked has said yes... The only use that would interest me is to swap out for a better battery for a long trip.

 

[Aphysician]

@ nwdiver

Amazing analogy... Have some pity on ICE owners though, this is their wildest dream. They would kill for free tank of gas, whereas tons of Tesla owners get it everyday.

 

[Norbert]

At $60 for an 85KWH battery, you're paying the equivalent of an 18mpg car at $4.00/gallon, if you're just doing swapping and no charging.

So, I think swapping is mostly for show and making arguments. I think by the time swapping stations are where you'd want them to be, Tesla would have a 500 mile battery, which is an even better solution. I do not drive more than 500 miles in a day ever.

I agree the price is high, but regarding the 500 mile battery, I don't think that will affect it anytime soon: By the time there are 500 mile batteries, the 200 - 300 batteries will be less expensive, and therefore sell in higher volumes. There are already those who say with the ability to swap for a trip, a 60 kWh battery will be enough. So even when there are 150+ kWh batteries, I'd expect the ~100 kWh batteries to sell in larger quantities than today, not only in the Gen III, but also in the Model S.

Plus, when you have a 500 mile battery, and you travel from SF to LA, you could swap at Tejon Ranch before arriving, so that in LA you have a (almost) full charge for your time there. And on the way back, you can swap your own battery back in, and have enough charge for the trip back. So on a trip of a few days in LA, you just need to stop twice, 5 min, and don't have to worry about Level 2 chargers at hotels in LA, or anything. Not how I travel, I like to make longer stops in any case, but I suppose that's what a good number of people might want to do.

 

[Aphysician]

Thank you all for your valuable vote. Till now "Free" seems to have an upper hand. One thing that is surprising is, almost all responses are from 85 kWh owners. Still waiting to see what 60 kWh owners feel, poll can't be accurate till they have their say. Any idea what is the ratio of 85kWh/60 kWh owners?

 

[Banahogg]

The stats on Lifetime Average Wh/mi - Page 32 look like about 75% 85kWh, so you're a bit higher proportion, but not absurdly so for two self-selecting polls.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Is Tesla reading this topic? It looks like SC for free is the absolute favorite and very few people will use the swapping system. With the number of responses so far this is becoming a pretty representative poll.

I think Tesla will find out the same thing with the first swapping station(s): that not many people will use it. It wouldn't surprise me if in the end they only limit the rollout to the really busy routes. Building swapping stations that no one use for $500,000 is not a sound strategy. But at least Tesla is testing it. And because management is not stupid it will decide on the basis of the experiences with the first station(s) whether and how to move on.

 

[Aphysician]

@ Norbert

I also feel that 500 mile battery though will be nice, is probably useless in day to day commute. Everything costs money. A good stretagy is to provide enough range for daily commute and relatively longer highway commute (around 300-350 miles), when you will anyway take a break. Providing quick charging options, and thus keep prices of cars low not having stuff bigger battery in the car. So, in short Tesla is doing exactly right. I absolutely agree that lower capacity batteries will sell in higher number. I havent placed my order, and wondering whether I can skip SCs and twin chargers with 60 kWh and just go with occasional swapping for highway trip. Higher range batteries for swapping in trips will also solve the problem of side trips from the destination, as discussed above.

 

[Zythryn]

Is Tesla reading this topic? It looks like SC for free is the absolute favorite and very few people will use the swapping system. With the number of responses so far this is becoming a pretty representative poll.
....

I suspect Tesla is already well aware of this.
How much does GM spend on advertisement? Well, this is Tesla's advertisement.
This gets people that would not look into an EV considering a Tesla. Once they have it, they will start to realize how little they actually need the battery swap, or in many cases even the range.

- - - Updated - - -

Thank you all for your valuable vote. Till now "Free" seems to have an upper hand. One thing that is surprising is, almost all responses are from 85 kWh owners. Still waiting to see what 60 kWh owners feel, poll can't be accurate till they have their say. Any idea what is the ratio of 85kWh/60 kWh owners?

I could only vote once, so I checked the 85kWh option.
Our 60 kWh does have supercharger access, however we expect to never use it as we will bring the 85 for any long trips.

 

[Aphysician]

@ Banahogg

Thank you for info. I am very surprised to see that poll is able to reflect roughly similar breakdown.

@ Right_Said_Fred

I hope Tesla is looking. That's the sole aim of the poll and this community, to provide feedback to the company. The responses are now 100, so considering Tesla has 10000 owners, atleast 1% is reflecting. Hope to provide more info to the company. It will be interesting to see what they learn from first swap station.

@ Zythryn

Tesla is playing really smart, showing people that they are willing to address range anxiety problem seriously with innovative solution and not staying in denial. EV adoption will only increase when EVs adopt to people lifestyle and not ask people to adjust to EVs, gradually as you mentioned people will realize all this range anxiety fear was false. Thank you for voting earlier. As you have two, after reading your first post I had put in your second vote manually.
________________________________________________________________

I also encourage Roadster/Model S owners, who have two cars, or has another reservation (Model S/X) to let me know, I will just manually add your second vote. Unfortunately, Roadster are not SC capable and won't have swap as well.

 

[Zythryn]

...As you have two, I will put in your other vote manually as well.

Thank you

 

[Merrill]

I have a 60 with SC and would prefer to use the superchargers. I would like Tesla to put the money toward expanding the sc network. I like the fact that you can swap out your battery that quick, but think in a few years they will have a better battery options that you can switch out at a reasonable cost.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I'm hoping to join the fun in Gen 3, so I voted.

Option 1.

Basically I 'd say that pver 90% of our miles could be done without a Supercharger, but I voted to have it anyway because it could be a very persiasive influence and I'd get it if needed.
Never say never on the swapping, but I hope that "same as a tank of gas" is referring to the per mile cost and not on a 20 gallon tank. Over $50 a pop for 250 miles? Not on your nelly. My 500 mile fill-ups costs me about $34 and I think I'll spend an hour at a Supercharger to save me working over an hour to pay for a swap.

 

[PhilBa]

On the point of a 500 mile battery, I'd rather have a 250 and carry less weight. I might see swapping a bigger battery for long road trips but that's like once a year.

 

[Aphysician]

@Its...Money

Thank you for voting. It is an excellent suggestion that Gen III owners should also be included, we know that it will have 200 rated miles, so probably 60 kWh pack. I have put in the request in the original post for future Gen III users to vote as well. Till now swapping seems to be the option only on those rare trips. In the main swapping discussion somebody mentioned that paying 60 $ for 250 miles is 18 mpg, that can spell disaster for swapping. So if swapping needs to be popular then the cost should be 250 mile X 16 cents ($ 40) or lower for comparable gas costs.

@ Merill

I think SCs are now must for a 60 kWh owners now, as the cost structure for swapping will be with a premium for 60 kWh owners. Waiting for SCs to pop up in Michigan soon. Hopefully Tesla doesnt get too excited by swapping and gives it a trial run and only due importance.

@ Philba

I agree carrying a 500 mile battery daily is oxymoron. Carry less weight, get more mileage and spend less money on battery, keep prices less. On those rare long trip, swap to higher range battery, build swap stations for that. Seems that is the plan for Tesla's part.

 

[seidste1]

I have 85 kWh battery. I plan on occasionally using superchargers and never doing a battery swap