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Well, the official position is that the govenment has agreed to not touch the VAT and purchase tax exemption until there are at least 50,000 EVs (or before 2017, which ever happens first). We'll reach 50,000 EVs spring/summer 2015.
What happens after we reach 50,000 EVs can be discussed at great length, but to keep it short; nothing happens immediately, everything remains just as it is now. But the government will definitely start to discuss the future of the incentives, and then we'll see what they conclude towards the end of next year, probably. Personally, I don't think that we'll see any significant changes until 2017 or later, but it is definitely linked to the success of the EVs. If 30-40-50% of cars sold in 2015 are electric, the phase out if the incentives will definitely start sooner rather than later. But if we're still in the 10-20% towards the end of 2015, they might be extended for several more years.
The weak NOK may work to keep the incentives around for longer, as it might keep EV sales lower.
Adm
Active Member
Numbers in from the Netherlands: 352 for december, 1465 for 2014
http://www.dealersupportnet.nl/static/downloadcenter/2015/01/merken-pc-ytm-12-2014.pdf
http://www.dealersupportnet.nl/static/downloadcenter/2015/01/merken-pc-ytm-12-2014.pdf
That's good sign. Basically I expect record quater for all the markets (mayb except Norway) for the Q4 because TM is supposed to pump the production rate by at least 60% in the past quarter. Let's monitor the Europe/Asia data in coming weeks.
Btw, a side question to European folks. Do you see year end delivery push in Europe? My expectation is NO because I assume all vechicles out of the factory should had been shipped to Europe in Oct./Nov., so unlike NA market, Europe market should be able to handle all Q4 deliveries ahead of the quarter end. But I could be wrong.
Btw, a side question to European folks. Do you see year end delivery push in Europe? My expectation is NO because I assume all vechicles out of the factory should had been shipped to Europe in Oct./Nov., so unlike NA market, Europe market should be able to handle all Q4 deliveries ahead of the quarter end. But I could be wrong.
How do you mean up 22%? Remember 2013 was only 6 months for Tesla delivery in Europe, so it's actually a decrease, entirely the result of regulatory changes that reduced tax benefits for owning full electric cars. A more stable picture includes the whole of Europe. It is reasonable to project 8500+-250 cars for 2014. This compares to 3893 cars in 6 months in 2013 or up roughly 10% on a full y-on-y basis.
As to the feel of a delivery push : yes, this can easily be seen by anyone passing Tilburg. There were way more cars there in December than usual, although things aren't as hectic as in the states I assume. Another 'feel' is that there won't be (comparatively) as many original enthousiasts who will switch to a D model as there were in the US. Interest on the Dutch board is certainly lower. Again, going by feel, I think Europeans are more wowed by top speeds rather than incredible acceleration in performance cars. In personal conversation, when someone is talking about a 'fast car' it's always about how fast you've driven it on the autobahn, not how fast you peeled it at the red lights. Also, the slightly larger range from the dual motors isn't a big bonus here since distances are way shorter and supercharger density higher. However, this may not be true for Norway where AWD may make more of an impact.
With a rising dollar, comparatively little interest in the D model and certainly no model X deliveries, I expect sales in Europe for 2015 (edited : was 2016) to be down in the countries where Tesla has reasonable (sales supporting) infrastructure build out already (mainly Benelux, Germany, Switzerland and Norway) and up in countries where it is still setting up the infrastructure (mainly France, UK and central-east Europe) All in all, it is going to be a wash with 8500 new Tesla model S (all varieties) hitting the road during 2015 (edited : was 2016).
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The number for Sweden is 64, and Austria 24. Both are very high.
Looks like this Month may see 1200 cars sold, so we will be at ca 2200 for Q4 or 400 more then last quarter, but lets wait until all data is in.
I wonder if the Netherland number includes another shipment for Schiphol Airport? When i used the tesla taxi in november, i talked to the driver and he told there will be few hundered more cars.
Looks like this Month may see 1200 cars sold, so we will be at ca 2200 for Q4 or 400 more then last quarter, but lets wait until all data is in.
I wonder if the Netherland number includes another shipment for Schiphol Airport? When i used the tesla taxi in november, i talked to the driver and he told there will be few hundered more cars.
Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
What do you think for 2015?
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What do you think for 2015?
Adm
Active Member
Don't forget 2013 was the year they worked to finish the waiting list that had been building up for 4 years. I think the number for 2014 will be the reference number for the future in Europe.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Yearly totals are yearly totals. And yes, 2013 had pent up demand.
RWD Model S with "autobahn tuning" had a top speed of 130 mph correct? P85D will have a top speed of 155 mph.
The D will have longer range at 155 mph too.
And don't most F segment cars in the "Blue Banana" get sold with AWD for snow and rain capability if not for improved 0-60 times?
Well, are yearly totals yearly totals, or are we going into a more detailed analysis to make comparisons over time more honest?
I am glad we can agree on the latter.Anyways, don't forget 2014 profited from pent up demand as well with the incredible number of deliveries in Norway of March that year. This is fairly evident from looking at the quarterly European deliveries :
Q3 2013 1224
Q4 2013 2669
Q1 2014 3073
Q2 2014 2327
Q3 2014 1370
Q4 2014 1800-2000
Q1'14 and before clearly are higher due to working through the backlog, Q3'14 was a supply issue (factory retooling taking longer then predicted), that leaves us with Q2'14 and Q4'14 as regular quarters. If European demand was growing at the same rate as US demand we should have seen an enormous increase in the estimated delivery times. It's been on average between 2 and 4 months. Variations had more to do with timing wrt end of quarter shipments than anything else. I have a really hard time to see a trending increase in the European numbers. I am still feeling confident about estimating the market between 8000 and 9000 cars in Europe for the next year.
True, it's better. But for someone who values acceleration foremost, the P85D offers a unique performance. For someone who values top speed, the P85D merely brings it in line with the rest of the manufacturers. It will indeed be interesting to see how far the P85D will go at top speed. If that's significantly longer than today, it may start to change perceptions.
Added security might indeed be an argument.
Wait. We all know 2013 Q4 has pent up demand but production rate has almost doubled from 2013 Q4 to 2014 Q4, so it's not good at all to see declined delivery number if it holds ture. Seriously!
Edit: I'm not saying the global demand has trouble at this point, but it hints
1) The Europe demand might be a "real" issue even with BIG investment on Europe stores/SCs and super charger networks, also the recent stong dollar doesn't help;
2) The production rate in Oct./Nov. was still under performed, so not enough cars can be shipped to Europe. Remember Elon didn't answer the production rate question in 11/06 conference call, so he might be not confident for the production rate until that time.
Edit: I'm not saying the global demand has trouble at this point, but it hints
1) The Europe demand might be a "real" issue even with BIG investment on Europe stores/SCs and super charger networks, also the recent stong dollar doesn't help;
2) The production rate in Oct./Nov. was still under performed, so not enough cars can be shipped to Europe. Remember Elon didn't answer the production rate question in 11/06 conference call, so he might be not confident for the production rate until that time.
Well, are yearly totals yearly totals, or are we going into a more detailed analysis to make comparisons over time more honest?
Anyways, don't forget 2014 profited from pent up demand as well with the incredible number of deliveries in Norway of March that year. This is fairly evident from looking at the quarterly European deliveries :
Q4 2013 2669
Q4 2014 1800-2000
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The european sales are not decreasing, its flat/slightly rising.
The 2 biggest differences are Norway sales and UK Launch, UK added 50-100 monthly demand, even at launch.
Norway sales were unsustainable and thus decreased to 500-700/Quarter, if Norway was the size of US (and bought as many cars per 1000 Population), it would be like selling 40-60k per Quarter.
So EU sales are stable but Norway sales ca. 2000 less, UK 500 More, other 10-20% more, so all in all i expect ca. 8000-8500 sold in Europe in 2015,slightly down vs 2014 (i expect ca. 9400 in 2014 or 2100-2200 Q4 2014)
The demand must come from China
Do other European folks agree the demand is flat/slightly rising? Any reason to explain in more details? We know Tesla is investing BIG in Europe in terms of stores/SCs and super chargers. As investor, we do expect reasonable ROI. If TM invested such in China in 2014, then I guess the order number must have well exceeded 10K.
The numbers are actually 267 for December and 4040 for the year, according to the official site. Bilsalget i desember - Opplysningsrådet for Veitrafikken AS (Two Roadsters have been registered earlier this year, so they might be the cause of the discrepancy.)
I wouldn't be too pessimistic about Norway, though. There is definitely a lot of people who are waiting for AWD. My guess for sales in Norway in 2015 would be around 3500.
I wouldn't be too pessimistic about Norway, though. There is definitely a lot of people who are waiting for AWD. My guess for sales in Norway in 2015 would be around 3500.
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