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Adm
Active Member
chickensevil
Active Member
Don't agree with pulling from GF funding, simply because they don't need to. It has been stated previously that they are pretty much building out the SC network as fast as they reasonably can. I have stated it elsewhere but will state it here that a lot of the issue stems from getting through all the red tape to be able to install. Getting governments and property owners to come together to support Tesla is a lot of work it isn't really something that you can just throw money at to fix your problems.
About the lack of inverters I think eventually it will not be needed to go to 80A but 40A for overnight charging is perfectly fine and will last. It may be that eventually they make it an option to get an inverter entirely, but I don't think it would ever fully go away unless charging at home hits such a point that you install a "supercharger" at your house. Then maybe. What I will say is that public charging certainly has it all wrong (outside of Tesla). The problems are multi-faceted.
First, most are installed in terrible locations... Walgreens? who stays at Walgreens for more than 30 minutes? Even grocery stores are not really the best option because you are not really going to spend that long shopping... at least not to justify sticking a 30A/240 L2 Blink/Chargepoint/etc type charger there. Even a full blown 80A charger would be wasted at those places. If you want to stick to "slow" L2 charging it needs to be somewhere you anticipate staying for around 8 hours. Work, Home, and Hotels are primary points that come to mind. Entertainment places like theaters (at least you will be there for a good 3 hours...) theme parks and other type events would also likely be acceptable.
Second, Speed. I sorta hit this with the first point, but L2 should really be 80A by default. Canada has that one right with their installation of the chargers. Anything higher than 20kW would likely need to just go DC at that point. People are still in the "short BEV range" mindset and need to get into the 200+ mile range mindset. That won't happen until market forces drive it... which leads to...
Finally, long range BEVs. This is contributing to the terrible thought process and mindset. Slow chargers are put in because no one is thinking about 50kWh or larger batteries... they are thinking about the sub 10kWh batteries... Bad locations are picked because people think you are likely to run out of range going to someplace like Walgreens because you only have 50-100 miles of BEV range.
Anyway... that is the problem with charging. Will the future be DC charging only? Who knows... but for now... AC charging will stay simply because you are going to charge at home when possible.
Adm
Active Member
I am not sure where you think those 2200 deliveries took place. France, Spain and Italy are missing in this list, but I doubt they will tip the scale over 2000.
If the 103 number for Dec.14 for Switzerland is correct, this would imply a sum of 493 MS sold in Switzerland in 2014.
Gerasimental
Member
One country after another coming in with Q4 deliveries well under the 33% of the 2014 total deliveries that, as Maoing pointed out, are required to get us to Q4 guidance of 11k vehicles.
Is there a supply related reason for this or are we really seeing demand drop off in the high-volume countries (NL, NO) and less-than-expected demand in the large economies (DE, UK)?
Is there a supply related reason for this or are we really seeing demand drop off in the high-volume countries (NL, NO) and less-than-expected demand in the large economies (DE, UK)?
Adm
Active Member
I've verified the numbers which also have 2014 deliveries, but some countries haven't specified smaller companies.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Very exciting Supercharger maps are being discussed in the Supercharger growth thread. Supercharger growth - Page 16
Note there is substantial expansion into Eastern Europe, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland planned for this year and even further eastern expansion into Russia, the Baltics and Greece in 2016.
Note there is substantial expansion into Eastern Europe, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland planned for this year and even further eastern expansion into Russia, the Baltics and Greece in 2016.
As always, it comes down to the U.S. and China. We don't need a particularly high Europe number to make the overall numbers, especially if the U.S. is strong. The estimates from GoodCarBadCar are 4,650 for U.S. and from InsideEVs, is 6,000 for the U.S. We know that Tesla pushed the P85D's in December which was mostly U.S. and some Canada deliveries with 0 going outside of North America. Therefore, in the neighborhood of 2,300 for Europe is not bad. Last quarter, it was 1,656 with a similar U.S. focus.
Australia is also a new ramping up territory, and Japan was 137 in December. As usual, we don't have Hong Kong numbers which are also critical. I think we have less than a 1,000 car miss, possibly less than 500 cars, at which point the increased ASP could be all the difference. It is also unclear how many cars Tesla was able to "ship" direct in the U.S. (not going through a Service Center for delivery) as it became crunch time in late December and therefore was able to count in Q4 2014.
chickensevil
Active Member
yeah, 6,000 US and 2300 EU means only 2,700 need to come from the Pacific region to hit 11,000 (which should match the revised guidance of 33k). Assuming both the 6,000 and 2,300 numbers are correct (there are certainly unknowns here) I feel pretty confident that we had the remaining 2,700 in the Pacific region.
Regarding the December `14 registrations in Germany it's noteworthy that this was the first month ever in Germany in which more Model S were "sold" than models of the BMW 7 series, BMW 6 series, Audi A8/S8 or Porsche Panameras (!). And that happened in GERMANY, folks. Here's the cut from the original list:
The first column with numbers are the registrations of brand new cars in December 2014.
The first column with numbers are the registrations of brand new cars in December 2014.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I hope so. It could well be that in the months ahead we'll see similar monthly registration numbers in the range of 100-200 cars. Positive catalysts:
- as you mentioned, relatively large supercharger network
- AWD option available
- 250 km/h top speed available
- sales expansion to fleet customers (so far Tesla Germany was not really successful to get into the fleet market in Germany)
- increasing visibility of Tesla Motors in German media
- potentially government incentives for EV purchases
jhm
Well-Known Member
This is all good. I think it is an excellent exercise for Tesla to figure out what it will take to win over German motorists. We hear much of "supply constrained" apologetics, but it is also vital that Tesla learns precisely how to grow demand in demanding and competitive markets. At this point, I think it comes down to getting a lot of little things right so that the entire package is flawless and quite compelling.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
What is Tesla learning? How is it adjusting to the German market?
When auto companies enter a new market they must learn about relationships with local distribution channels. Tesla sells direct in Germany and so far has not agreed to terms with a large leasing company AFAIK.
Auto companies in foreign markets must learn how to use paid advertisements. Tesla does not do that.
Auto companies must learn what proportion of incentive money must be used for the buyer in terms of discounts and what percentage to use for salespeople in terms of commissions/prizes,kickbacks. Tesla does not do that.
Auto companies must learn how to customize product to local taste. An American Camry,for example, is wider than a Japanese Camry with much bigger cup holders. Tesla made a mild "autobahn" tuning almost at release and has done nothing since.
Tesla did not just figure out that more Superchargers means more business. Nor did they just figure out that autobahn speeds deplete the battery quicker requiring Superchargers to be built closer together.
No auto market in the world is more competitive that the US market. The fact that BMWs,MBs,and Audis are cheaper in the US than Germany even after adjusting for VAT is proof of that.
The fact is Germany is going to be the toughest market to crack for Tesla after Japan and S Korea because it is home to the three largest premium priced car Auto companies. And Germany has the highest speed limits in the world, which makes it particularly difficult for premium priced BEVs to directly compete with premium priced ICEv.
And Japan and S Korea are going to be the toughest markets to crack because of non-Tariff trade barriers( S Korea does not allow BEVs on highways/freeways) and much stronger bias for domestic brands than Western markets.
chickensevil
Active Member
I'm sorry... what? That is the stupidest thing I have ever heard. It must be because they thought of "BEV" as those little golf carts that only go 20 MPH... so they made a law that said no BEVs on the highway (like how we say no bicycles and farm equipment on the freeways)... this seriously needs to change. But is quite funny... and sad... at the same time.
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