EU Market Situation and Outlook

[RobStark]

Well yes there is. For the purpose of avoiding the 200k they need to produce in April or they will not be delivered before end of quarter. And not delivering before end of quarter means receiving no cash for these cars in Q2. At which point it’s just better to warehouse them in the us, also not receive cash but deliver them all on Jul 1st to get even more full fed credits.

Starting production in April means delivery at best end of May right when the Norwegian org shifts from museum to madhouse btw.

So what if they deliver 70%-90% in Q2 and some spill over into Q3?

How is warehousing in the US any better? Revenue is still not recognized plus warehousing expense.

Having a bunch of Norwegians on Summer Holiday all over Europe in their Model 3s IMO is much better than warehousing in the USA. The ability of Tesla USA to deliver cars to customers is also not infinite.

 

[Cobos]

So what if they deliver 70%-90% in Q2 and some spill over into Q3?

How is warehousing in the US any better? Revenue is still not recognized plus warehousing expense.

Having a bunch of Norwegians on Summer Holiday all over Europe in their Model 3s IMO is much better than warehousing in the USA. The ability of Tesla USA to deliver cars to customers is also not infinite.

And Tesla will get a lot of good press if they start shipping Model 3 to Norway early. Keep in mind "everyone" that buys an EV here is a seasoned EV user. Or has an EV support group At the high school I work there are 4 EV users. 2 Model S'es (including mine), 1 Leaf and a Golf EV. In my apartment building there are about 8 EVs, 3 Model S'es a Model X, 2 MiEVs, 1 Leaf and a Golf EV. So we're ready for Model 3s oh yes....

Cobos

 

[schonelucht]

How is warehousing in the US any better? Revenue is still not recognized plus warehousing expense.

Having a bunch of Norwegians on Summer Holiday all over Europe in their Model 3s IMO is much better than warehousing in the U.S..

It’s better because then on July first you can deliver a lot of supplemental cars that fall under the $7500 fed cred (and therefore incentivize buyers of those cars to spend on additional options).

Secondly, the last thing Tesla needs is to drum up more buzz for the model 3. Especially in a market that won’t be served for another 9 months. Elon’s staying super consistent on that message.

Canada early invitations got reflected in the estimatesupdate from Tesla earlier this year. No such thing for Norway. Drop the fantasy. No European deliveries this quarter.

 

[RobStark]

It’s better because then on July first you can deliver a lot of supplemental cars that fall under the $7500 fed cred (and therefore incentivize buyers of those cars to spend on additional options).

Secondly, the last thing Tesla needs is to drum up more buzz for the model 3. Especially in a market that won’t be served for another 9 months. Elon’s staying super consistent on that message.

Canada early invitations got reflected in the estimates update from Tesla earlier this year. No such thing for Norway. Drop the fantasy. No European deliveries this quarter.

1) The only way those cars make a difference in the USA is if the ramp up is a major F up. The difference between what cars Tesla needs to shift and what the Canadian market can absorb. Then that is the least of their problems. Demand isn't a problem, if they wanted to they can make any number of options mandatory. Much of any gains would be offset by warehousing cost.

2) At this point much of any cannibalization in Europe isn't taking from Model S and X but from other EVs. That to me is not a problem. I-Pace backordered two years, e-Golf backordered, Ioniq EV backordered. Might as well *sugar* some those reservations back to Model 3.

3) I don't have Tesla fantasies. I can speculate all I want.

 

[avoigt]

The good news of today:

Model S qualifies again for the German EV subsidy. It was cancelled before after some newspapers wrote that the base model price of €60k is an artificial one but you need to pay more to get the base vehicle. Tesla claimed this not to be true. It took some months to get Tesla back on the list.

BAFA - Elektromobilität

 

[Cobos]

Thought I’d retell my experience today. I went to Sweden for som shopping today and after visiting the new 34 point SC in Rygge which was almost 80% full I continued north on E6. Around Vestby I passed 4 car carriers with a total of about 20 S’s and X’s also heading north towards Oslo or Lillestrøm. This was 1900 local time which is kind of strange in Norway as this Wednesday is a half day and Thursday and Friday are full holidays. I guess they might deliver these on Saturday to get the last cars in the quarter. Regardless they are pushing hard here in Norway.

Cobos

 

[Model 3]

This was 1900 local time which is kind of strange in Norway as this Wednesday is a half day and Thursday and Friday are full holidays.

And I met one at about the same time yesterday in Lillestrøm that was heading into the trade fair area.

 

[Cobos]

And I met one at about the same time yesterday in Lillestrøm that was heading into the trade fair area.

But yesterday makes more sense since those cars were probably delivered to customers today. Norway usually shuts completely down for the easter holdays, and I find it surprising that they are even considering this Saturday as a delivery day. That is seriously dedicated employees, or very well paid employees

Cobos

 

[Model 3]

But yesterday makes more sense since those cars were probably delivered to customers today.

Yes, I know, and therefor it was not something I submitted alone. But with one transporter arriving late with only half a day left before easter, and then you report even more transports at a time we do consider as easter I thought it was worth to mention.

 

[Cobos]

Yes, I know, and therefor it was not something I submitted alone. But with one transporter arriving late with only half a day left before easter, and then you report even more transports at a time we do consider as easter I thought it was worth to mention.

Good point and for our US friends I’m not sure they know how closed Norway is during Easter, so this is pretty curious?

Cobos

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: Europe February 2018

 

[mrdoubleb]

I've added in Spain actually for January and February a few days ago. If someone has the time, please validate. Thx.

 

[schonelucht]

Thanks @mrdoubleb I just confirmed them. Norway is 1407 for March which is quite respectable. We didn't quite get the 1600 deliveries event Bjorn promised us, but it is still a very decent number and I think April will be reasonable good too.

 

[Model 3]

The official numbers for Norway is out: Bilsalget i mars

Model X: 727
Model S: 676
Model 3: 0

37.3% zero emission (4 hydrogen, rest is BEV)
27.7% hybrid (with or without plug)

Nissan sat a new record in deliveries of one model in one month: 2,172 Leaf's. Thereby smashing Tesla's old record of 1,535 from march 2014.

 

[schonelucht]

Please submit this to the TMC Europe tracksheet. See here for all the details. We need more submitters!

 

[Model 3]

Done...

 

[hobbes]

In case you didn´t see it yet - a car dealer in Düsseldorf, Germany imported a Model 3 to rent out. I called this morning and was supposedly the 17th person (the instagram post must have happened last night). They told me to send an email to get a place in line and they´d come back to me once it was registered and the terms/prices were fixed.

Now it is possible to rent and try a Tesla Model3 in Germany - Arndt Autoforum • r/teslamotors

Actually, if someone wants to meet there that would be fun!

 

[Gerasimental]

Been taking a more arms-length approach to my TSLA long position over the last year or so so I've not been very active here, but still trying to keep fairly abreast of what's going on.

Was just looking at Teslastats.no, and I believe March was around 2x March 2017, while April is already at 3x April 2018, and two thirds of the month are still to go. About 20-30 are still being delivered every day, so it doesn't look like just a hangover from the end of Q push.

What's going on here? Has there been an important change in the law again? I thought Norway was supposed to be nearly saturated and just going at a mild, linear growth, but this seems like huge growth.

 

[Model 3]

What's going on here? Has there been an important change in the law again? I thought Norway was supposed to be nearly saturated and just going at a mild, linear growth, but this seems like huge growth.

Remember that we had a "scandal" here last month, where Tesla used insecure/old transport cars from Gothenburg to Oslo/Norway that made a lot of fuzz in the media here. Elon told the Norwegian organization to slow down on deliveries to fix this problem, so I do think we have some huge hangover from the end of Q push.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Not much is happening. You could say that this March was 2x March 2017 and this April is currently 3x April 2017, but another way to put it is that Q1 2018 was 46% of Q4 2017 and 73% of Q3 2017. And April is currently at 96% of January and 72% of October.

I expect fewer deliveries in 2018 than in 2017 for the S/X, even if we are a bit ahead of where we were last year, because I don't see it as likely that the massive Q3/Q4 deliveries will be repeated.