EU Market Situation and Outlook

[schonelucht]

Switzerland posted 98 sales in April, down from 138 q-o-q and 117 y-o-y.

With just a few smaller countries to report, the April total will likely fall to around 750, which is essentially flat with last quarter (732) or last year (780). One major caveat are the UK numbers. It's possible our registration stats underestimate the real sales volume. Looking forward, I'd expect May to be relatively slow while June should be a blow out month representing nearly two months of orders delivered in those 30 days. There is also the possibility of Tesla sneaking in some Model X deliveries this quarter.

 

[eisa01]

According to this source Model S sales in the UK total 321 YTD

| EAFO

I don't follow the market to know if that includes Jan-Mar or Jan-Apr, but maybe the figures can be cross-checked against other known quantities?

Data sources and reliability M1 vehicles | EAFO

Previous month data is actuals, while current month statistics are preliminary for the UK

 

[eisa01]

Can't find the edit button, but from Troy's figures on the previous page YTD is January to March, as the site displays 2015 YTD as 205

 

[Troy]

Hi Eisa,
EAFO numbers are a more than 6 months behind. For example early last month, UK 2015 numbers were still unknown. The estimate on the wiki was 991 units. EAFO was 838 units. If we trusted EAFO and lowered our estimate, it would be even more wrong because two weeks later Gov.uk published the official number as 1470 units. Furthermore, even today EAFO website still reports 838 units for 2015 UK sales. To see this, click HERE and on the left change country to UK. To see the official number (1470 units) from Gov.uk, click HERE and download Table VEH0160. Because EAFO has incorrect numbers on their site, it is not a reliable source. Btw, your edit button will be available after a few more messages.

Hi mrco,
Using SMMT numbers for UK estimates is an interesting idea. I've created this table to see if there is some consistency in percentages:

Unfortunately the percentages are not consistent. For example in Q4 2015 SMMT reported 937 units as "Other imports". Later from the Gov UK number we found out that 800 of those were Tesla Model S. That's 85.4%. However in Q2 2015 the percentage was 26.9%. So the percentage of Tesla UK sales within SMMT's Other imports is anywhere between 26.9% to 85.4%. That's not very useful. Said that, I admit there is a huge increase in Q1 2016. It is most likely that again 85% or over of that 1018 number are Teslas. That would mean 1018*0.854= 860 units for Q1 2016 and 290 monthly average. We could switch to SMMT based estimates. We could use the last known percentage to calculate this months data.

Hobbes, what do you think? Stick with Gov.uk based estimates or switch to SMMT? Of course these estimates are there for a few months until the official numbers replace the estimate.

 

[Troy]

Hi,

Here is a quick update: Following Mrco's suggestion, after collecting and comparing last few months data, Hobbes and I decided to switch to SMMT based UK estimates until Gov.UK publishes their numbers. They are always up to 6 months late. For example first 2016 numbers will be published in June. The wiki has been updated. UK YTD estimate changed from 632 units to 914 units. You can find details if you click on the UK numbers.

 

[Spidy]

Btw. who can edit this page?

Redirecting

Europe Q1 2016 number should be like 1k lower.

 

[Troy]

Thanks Spidy. Fixed.

 

[schonelucht]

Publicly stating so we can verify how wrong I was

European customers who ordered their car in the first quarter of 2015 got them delivered in the second quarter, 3904 in total. We know from the latest shareholder letter that first quarter orders this year for Europe were up y-o-y. Global order rate was up 45% but since Asia itself was up 160%, Europe is likely somewhat lower than 45% but still positive. Let's say 20%. That means we can estimate orders in the first quarter for Europe to be somewhere around 4700. According to the website these were delivered March (partially), April. May and June (partially). Tesla already delivered 2489 cars in March so let's assume 1300 of those were ordered in the first quarter. Together with the 787 from April that means there are still around 2600 cars to be delivered in May and halfway through June. I am shooting for 1000 in May and 1600 in June. Together with another 1000 from Q2 orders delivered in June we should see total Q2 deliveries to come down to 787 + 1000 + 1600 + 1000 or somewhere around 4400 (+13% y-o-y)

Caveat Emperor : there is a large unkown in the +20%, that could easily be +35% if we are tracking better then the US or +10% if we do worse.

 

[schonelucht]

We are not going to make 1000 for May if early reports are representative. 30 deliveries in the Netherlands (75 last quarter, 129 last year) and 24 in Sweden (37 last quarter, 77 last year). Possibly still the effects from batching and refreshing?

 

[techmaven]

We are not going to make 1000 for May if early reports are representative. 30 deliveries in the Netherlands (75 last quarter, 129 last year) and 24 in Sweden (37 last quarter, 77 last year). Possibly still the effects from batching and refreshing?

Refresh vehicles are barely starting to appear. Another race to the finish.

 

[schonelucht]

156 for Norway. Down from 346 last year but up from 113 last quarter. Only 9(!) for Belgium, this down from 42 last quarter and 75 last year. 15 for Austria also down from 25 last quarter and 33 last year. I don't think there is any doubt that May will be one of the worst months for Tesla in Europe since a long time. With several of the traditionally important countries already reported we are at 234 cars. We now need a good turn in from the UK, Germany and Switzerland to even make it to 500.

The order window for May was only 3 weeks so we should expect it's a little slower than normal but I didn't anticipate this drastically. Especially not because EU orders were on an upwards path in the first quarter (which is when these cars were ordered). The only explanation that would still fit all assumptions is that June is going to be a blow out month. Not sure how healthy such large swings are operationally wise though.

 

[Spidy]

because EU orders were on an upwards path in the first quarter

The problem is that it's really really hard to compare order numbers with deliveries. For example this is 7. December 2014. And that one green field can make all the difference. Also notice how it says March for US orders. When you ordered last December you got it 3 weeks later.

Website wait times for delivery change

 

[schonelucht]

Good point! The D reveal really released a lot of pent up demand pulling it forward to some extent and taking more than just one quarter to clear the backlog. I'd need to rerun the numbers but if indeed 2015Q1 orders were a lot lower then even after being up, orders in 2016Q1 are probably a lot lower than I originally estimated.

 

[Spidy]

Germany 53... Reasons?

Short order window? Expecting facelift? Too Expensive? New E-Class competition? Expecting government initiative for EVs?

Guess we have to wait a bit and see how this develops.

 

[AustinPowers]

Well, for a start, the government initiative for EVs in Germany currently excludes Tesla completely, due to the 60K Euro base price limit.
When the Model 3 hits the market, I don't expect Tesla to take part in the EV initiative, and rightly so. As long as they are so heavily production constrained, why throw money out of the window. Even the German customers will buy the Model 3 in large numbers, with or without EV incentives. I know I will ;-)

 

[schonelucht]

At least June will be better. Missouri Maersk unloaded in Antwerp and Rotterdam a few days ago (not sure in which port the cars are unloaded). It's going to be busy in the Tilburg factory.

 

[mmd]

Will anyone update the wiki for May? Trying to guess the Q2 delivery number. Thanks!
Tesla Europe Registration Stats

 

[schonelucht]

If no one else does it, I will tomorrow. Normally it's not recommended that I review the numbers since I also submitted them in the first place. Currently the May total is 287 for all countries that are marked RED in the wiki. If everything stays like for like, we may end up at around 400, unless there is a UK surprise. Unfortunately we only really will know for sure in September or so.

 

[geneclean55]

UK car registration estimates for May were released by SMMT today. Using the approach recently suggested by MRCO would indicate 141 Tesla registrations (221 total car imports minus historical average of 80 non Tesla imports).

 

[geneclean55]

37 For France, 13 for Italy, 24(?) for Finland. Combined with the UK estimate, I think 500-550 for May should be obtainable as we are also still awaiting Switzerland. If that is the case, then numbers for first 2 months in q2-2016 will be similar to numbers for first 2 months of q1-2016. Is there any reason to believe/hope that June will surpass March numbers?