Elon speaking on 09-27-2016 at the IAS

[dhanson865]

One of the questions was about "did you consider a cycling(? That's what I thought I heard) approach?" I didn't understand the question, and Elon's reply assumed the audience knew what it was, so that meant nothing to me either. Can anyone give me a pointer?

Conceptually it would be like using multiple buses in a city.

One for local route, One for long range transfers, One for local route at the other end.

It would require sending ships to the destination to be the local transfer, sending ships to a path that goes around between earth and mars over and over, and keeping a supply of ships at earth to transfer people to the other ships. Way more complicated and costly than just using one type of ship.

The only advantage of the cycler is that those ships never have to stop so they use less fuel themselves. The offset is your transfer ships have to work harder to get to the cycler and you have less control/adjustability of the timing if your goal is to keep the cycler on a set course and speed. I don't know if the overall process saves fuel after adjusting for the transfer ships.

 

[dhanson865]

Speaking of ULA, I would expect that they would be happy with this. Anything that distracts SpaceX from focusing on satellites and GTO launches is good for them.

I don't think so. Elon was talking about how much the new system could put in orbit and revenue streams. I think we'll see less use of Falcon 9 if the new system proves reliable they'll use falcon 9 for LEO missions and F9Heavy or this new ITS for GTO.

 

[ccutrer]

I don't think so. Elon was talking about how much the new system could put in orbit and revenue streams. I think we'll see less use of Falcon 9 if the new system proves reliable they'll use falcon 9 for LEO missions and F9Heavy or this new ITS for GTO.

Seriously. NASA might as well launch an entire ISS replacement pre-built on the ITS! Not really, but I'm sure that once the capability is there, NASA, other science organizations, and industry in general will find things that they otherwise wouldn't be able to launch. Think of a Hubble, but with a 50 ft. mirror, rather than an 8 ft.

 

[Skotty]

Did anyone else get the impression that Musk is mostly interested in getting to Mars, and not so much in developing Mars? During the Q&A he answered a question about that by basically saying SpaceX is building the railroad and it will be up to others to build the cities. The video ended with the door of the first ship opening on the Martian surface, not with a view of the first city.

If so, clearly they are going to have to work with some other entity, public or private, starting pretty soon. After all, it is going to take a lot of planning to figure out how to make that happen. And I would be really surprised if any of the first 100,000 people going to Mars can do so with only a couple days of training!

I'm looking forward to hearing those plans just as much!

No. Well, yes...for now. Once SpaceX gets there, if there isn't any movement on others figuring out how to develop Mars, you will see SpaceX shift at least partially into Mars development. It's just not a priority right now, because you have to be able to get there first.

 

[oneday]

Did anyone else expect Elon to unveil the new SpaceX spacesuit?

 

[ecarfan]

Did anyone else get the impression that Musk is mostly interested in getting to Mars, and not so much in developing Mars? During the Q&A he answered a question about that by basically saying SpaceX is building the railroad and it will be up to others to build the cities.

Hey, cut the guy some slack. He can't do everything! First you have to get the people there. Then the development will happen. The first several thousand adventurous types will create an economic forcing function that will drive development and drive down the cost of getting there.

Great post today by Tim Urban about the ITS, see SpaceX's Big ****ing Rocket – The Full Story - Wait But Why

 

[ecarfan]

Speaking of ULA, I would expect that they would be happy with this. Anything that distracts SpaceX from focusing on satellites and GTO launches is good for them.

I seriously doubt that Elon is going to let SpaceX get "distracted" from the business of launching commercial satellites or NASA contract work because that brings in the revenue that allows him to get started on making the ITS a reality. Of course, as he admits, the ITS is going to cost a massive amount of money and the commercial launch business won't come close to producing enough revenue. I think during the presentation yesterday Elon said something like the ITS is going to cost $10 billion. He didn't specify what that will cover, but my guess is that could be the overall cost of creating the first ITS spaceship and first stage and first refueling spacecraft plus launch site infrastructure. If SpaceX can do all that for $10 billion I will be shocked. But again I am only guessing on what that figure is going to cover.

 

[BillO]

Hey, cut the guy some slack. He can't do everything! First you have to get the people there. Then the development will happen. The first several thousand adventurous types will create an economic forcing function that will drive development and drive down the cost of getting there.

Great post today by Tim Urban about the ITS, see SpaceX's Big ****ing Rocket – The Full Story - Wait But Why

I guess what I'm saying is that you can't just fly random people with their luggage to Mars. Not for a long time. The crew and contents of the very first flight are going to have to be carefully planned. If SpaceX isn't going to do that, someone else will have to. Otherwise there is no point in even going as no one will survive. This isn't like sending ships to the New World...

 

[Grendal]

Here is a video of the conference call that happened after the IAC presentation:

The audio for this is not good but you can hopefully catch most of it:

 

[GoTslaGo]

Livestream feed for IAC:

Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species September 27th 12:30 pm

Awesome! Finally got to watch it!

Thanks again for the link. Wow...

 

[ecarfan]

I guess what I'm saying is that you can't just fly random people with their luggage to Mars. Not for a long time. The crew and contents of the very first flight are going to have to be carefully planned.

Yes, that is obviously the case and I doubt anyone is going to disagree with you, including Elon.

In his presentation Elon was taking the long view and simplifying things for the sake of clarity. He did not want to get into the details of how the first people will be selected and screened and how that process will work long term. Clearly some level of screening will be required. The psychological challenges of maintaining one's sanity during a multi-month journey through space, and then living in the Martian environment for years, are formidable and many people will likely not be able to handle it. It would be desirable to try to screen out those people, but accurately predicting who can tolerate the experience and who cannot will be difficult.

Elon is certainly aware of all that, but that is not what his presentation was about so he did not address it.

 

[ecarfan]

Here is a video of the conference call that happened after the IAC presentation:

The audio for this is not good but you can hopefully catch most of it:

Thanks for posting that. I tried listening to it but the audio quality is so poor that at first I didn't even realize it was Elon who was speaking. I could not understand enough of what he was saying to make it comprehensible overall.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Speaking of ULA, I would expect that they would be happy with this. Anything that distracts SpaceX from focusing on satellites and GTO launches is good for them.

Huh?

Short term: Falcon/Falcon Heavy
Long term: fully-reusable BFR with methalox engines and a massive payload capability at lower cost per kg, which will also be able to take heavy cargo and people to Mars and beyond.

ULA will _not_ be happy about this.

One of the key elements to Elon Musk's approach is to aim big, but take a path that allows for returns with partial success. It's happened with SpaceX's approach to rockets, and it's happening with Tesla's approach to BEVs and to autonomy. Other companies are aiming high, but are stuck with something that either meets all of its goals or remains a research project.

 

[Grendal]

Huh?

Short term: Falcon/Falcon Heavy
Long term: fully-reusable BFR with methalox engines and a massive payload capability at lower cost per kg, which will also be able to take heavy cargo and people to Mars and beyond.

ULA will _not_ be happy about this.

One of the key elements to Elon Musk's approach is to aim big, but take a path that allows for returns with partial success. It's happened with SpaceX's approach to rockets, and it's happening with Tesla's approach to BEVs and to autonomy. Other companies are aiming high, but are stuck with something that either meets all of its goals or remains a research project.

You and quite a few others caught my short-sightedness on this. I was looking at this from ULA's perspective of SpaceX that we've heard from their people. Most notably the guy that got fired for commenting openly. The perspective he had was to blow off any future plans of SpaceX as fanciful and dreaming. Thinking about it more, I suppose enough time has passed that ULA has a more realistic view of the threat that SpaceX poses to them. Thanks to you and everyone else for pointing out my flawed position and correcting me.

 

[winfield100]

slitely OT. I'm having fun on Seeking Alpha converting an age contemporary (about 70) from the dark side to the interplanetary dream, and making serious coin as you need to relate to investing,
how Mars and the solar system will create incredible wealth.
Turning someone whom disagrees with you to agreement is fun, and this whole thing has added 10 years to my life

 

[Genshi]

I think he needs to remember he's talking to the IAC, not a high school class (so far)...

I was totally thinking the same thing, right up until the QA, when I realized it was probably the right choice.

No. Well, yes...for now. Once SpaceX gets there, if there isn't any movement on others figuring out how to develop Mars, you will see SpaceX shift at least partially into Mars development. It's just not a priority right now, because you have to be able to get there first.

I agree, and further I'd say he may want other people to help actively pursue the policy changes that will need to happen before we send ANYONE to mars, or bring anything back. That is to say, the questions of contamination going in either direction and the possible repercussions to microbial life. I suspect he wants a hand in crafting the new policies, but I'd venture a guess he wants some allies and input before he tries to guide that conversation. Or it may just be that those questions will come AFTER he airlifts some cargo there and he really is just taking things one at a time. Lord knows the man is tackling enough enormous issues at once already.

Great post today by Tim Urban about the ITS, see SpaceX's Big ****ing Rocket – The Full Story - Wait But Why

Love those WBW posts - read that one as soon as it landed in my inbox. His series on Elon Musk, SpaceX, Tesla & the branching articles were amazing. As good, and in some sections better, than the Biography that Vance wrote.

 

[ccutrer]

this whole thing has added 10 years to my life

Elon wants to to get to Mars fast, but even if he gets to 0.99 light speed, the distance isn't far enough for the relativistic effects to let you live 10 years further into the future

 

[ggies07]

This whole presentation has gotten me back into watching space movies....old and new, any I can find. I love that we have a person like Elon getting people excited about space again.

 

[winfield100]

Elon wants to to get to Mars fast, but even if he gets to 0.99 light speed, the distance isn't far enough for the relativistic effects to let you live 10 years further into the future

dude, kinda appropriate. in nov, 2014 i bought a PHEV Volt instead of a tesla (sold a few or 2 of appreciated tsla)
doc said "well, you might not wake up", haha, in doctor talk, so possibility of have a $400/mo payment or $900/mo payment for spouse
eh, woke up, just to spite the surgeon
now regret, cause, slaps forehead, coulda hada tesla and spacex is reason to hang around an extra 10 - 20

 

[ecarfan]

This cartoon perfectly illustrates how absurd many of the questions were during the Q&A following Elon's presentation.

https://m.imgur.com/dPeLNnx?r