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it would be nice to find out what Buzz Aldrin thinks about this.
(my problem with it is i'm almost 70, not in my 20's)
(my problem with it is i'm almost 70, not in my 20's)
jerjozwik
Active Member
a while ago a friend took me on a private tour of JPL where i spent some quality time with a mission planner (?) who worked on the mars science lab mission. we were all talking about our fit ev and the employee mentioned how he wanted a tesla, we agreed and then directed the conversation towards spaceX. the employee laughed at the idea of a few tons of anything landing on mars. saying that they were at the limit or something to that effect with msl. going on to say how the atmosphere wont be thick enough. supersonic parachutes on and on. [lots of paraphrasing and fuzzy details, this was literally years ago]
my wife and i were both surprised that we did not get the "i think its really cool and wish them the best," kind of response and instead got the "hes a fool."
I interpreted his statements about the radiation risk while in transit to Mars as believing that while there is certainly some increased risk of cancer it is small and when you weigh that against the overall greater risks of humans going to Mars it's hardly a deal breaker.
At least that is the way I look at it. Certainly the additional exposure to solar radiation during the trip to Mars (as compared to staying on Earth) increases cancer risk but anyone who decides to make the trip should realize that there are many other risks that are just as serious, if not more so.
Compared to staying on Earth, going to Mars is a high risk activity. Each person has to decide for themselves what level of risk they decide is acceptable while realizing that it is impossible to accurately quantify the sum total of all the risks. For tens of thousands of years, humans have died while exploring the planet they live on. Now humans are about to embark on their longest journey ever and there is no question that the risks are significant. That won't stop people from doing it, nor should it.
I wish they had also used the clip
WANDERERS -Short Film
and said some of the ships would be named "Sagan" or "Roddenberry" or "Nimoy"
WANDERERS -Short Film
and said some of the ships would be named "Sagan" or "Roddenberry" or "Nimoy"
stealthology
Member
What could wreck Elon Musk’s plan to colonize Mars isn’t science, technology, or money—it’s ethics
Sigh. Qz is a sister company of WSJ. Might have to unsub
Sigh. Qz is a sister company of WSJ. Might have to unsub
Or maybe it is inspiring them to push forward with their own plan. Or try to get a job at SpaceX. I don't know. But I see nothing wrong with SpaceX "usurping" what NASA is trying to accomplish.
Of course Elon is aware that his plans to colonize Mars have always been at odds with NASA in the sense that he thinks NASA is moving too slowly and the cost per person is far too high. Those issues are in large part what motivated to establish SpaceX. But Elon is also very careful to never overtly criticize NASA in public and to be effusive in his appreciate of NASA for hiring SpaceX. I think Elon has been remarkably diplomatic over the years in regards to how he speaks about NASA, and with good reason.
ccutrer
Active Member
While this is a fine concept, it comes from the perspective that funding could be cut at any time, so better to establish something with the lowest ongoing costs. The tradeoff being sacrificing flexibility. Watching their animation, sure the trip TO Mars might be direct, but getting back to Earth from Mars is a very long process. Maybe there is an "inverse" of the cycle, where it takes a direct trip from Mars to Earth, and then takes a double-loop sweet time getting back to Mars? Of course, the whole concept ignores that you have to build the thing in the first place, most likely piece-by-piece in space. Seems like that would cost a lot more time and effort than just building an ITS on earth, and have a few launches of the tanker to get it fueled.
Contrast this to SpaceX's plan. They're not just theorizing. It's not just a concept. They're doing hard core engineering, and considering the system as a whole. Like Elon said - the CGI promo video isn't just a concept - it's based on actual CAD drawings. They've fully designed the engine, built one, and have started testing it. They've built the fancy-smancy carbon fiber fuel tank. They're going to do this, it's just a matter of making enough money along the way from other sources to fund it.
ccutrer
Active Member
My limited outsider's impression is that NASA is a huge SpaceX cheerleader. They seem to want to funnel as much money (in the form of ISS contracts, both cargo and crew) and personnel (in the form of "knowledge sharing" and "advisory" roles) as possible. Do you remember the article about Red Dragon? Even without exchange of money, NASA is advising on mission planning, in exchange for SpaceX sharing telemetry about high altitude powered landing maneuvers on Earth, and a future powered landing on Mars. They want the info for their own missions, which may or may not happen. And that's the beauty of it - while NASA is "the" space agency, they're a government entity, constrained by politics, public opinion, and budget cuts. I see them as looking over at SpaceX, and seeing an entity with great ideas, great follow through, and not governed by the above issues. They want them to succeed. I'm sure there are a few jealous, "not invented here" types at NASA, or greedy fronts from ULA concerned about protecting corporate revenue streams. Or even some that think SpaceX is being too cavalier in their methodology. But true space fans have got to be loving what SpaceX is doing, regardless of the corporate form.
Speaking of ULA, I would expect that they would be happy with this. Anything that distracts SpaceX from focusing on satellites and GTO launches is good for them.
3Victoria
Active Member
Yeah, but as EM stated, this is a small part of their effort in time and money at the moment. The satellite business is paying for this.
That's what I wonder about. You're going to get different perspectives at different levels within NASA. Some of the newer hires are probably envious. Some of the veterans, with more invested, are probably convinced that they're crazy and probably secretly hope that they fail. No matter what, if SpaceX succeed in this, it completely puts NASA back on their heels. The public, quite justifiably, will be looking at them and asking... "so what have you done with the XXX billions that we've given you?". And "Why do you keep saying that it can't be done with the budget you have?".
Nobody like competition... and this is the first time, since the 60s, that NASA has really had competition. A bit of LEO stuff is fine... NASA can rationalize that they've been doing that for 60 years. But now SpaceX is looking to plant their flag much farther up the mountain - right in the middle of NASA's camp - and making NASA look a bit silly.
I think you're giving humanity far too much credit. NASA, for sure, has been having some very uncomfortable conversations with ULA. I really struggle to imagine that the general sentiment at ULA is one of admiration for the successes of their brother.
Did anyone else get the impression that Musk is mostly interested in getting to Mars, and not so much in developing Mars? During the Q&A he answered a question about that by basically saying SpaceX is building the railroad and it will be up to others to build the cities. The video ended with the door of the first ship opening on the Martian surface, not with a view of the first city.
If so, clearly they are going to have to work with some other entity, public or private, starting pretty soon. After all, it is going to take a lot of planning to figure out how to make that happen. And I would be really surprised if any of the first 100,000 people going to Mars can do so with only a couple days of training!
I'm looking forward to hearing those plans just as much!
If so, clearly they are going to have to work with some other entity, public or private, starting pretty soon. After all, it is going to take a lot of planning to figure out how to make that happen. And I would be really surprised if any of the first 100,000 people going to Mars can do so with only a couple days of training!
I'm looking forward to hearing those plans just as much!
ccutrer
Active Member
Definitely. I think he wants to work with Mars One and/or similar entities. Tell them "hey, wanna hitch a ride? I got ya covered! You build the colony, I'll handle transportation."
remember, taking the colonists will be a 40-100 year endeavor. making an atmosphere and oceans most likely more than a bit longer
it's the descendents whom will develop Mars, and all the rest of the Solar system, out to the Oort cloud and Kuiper belt unless medical science gets way better or we get uploads
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
The people might live indoors long term but part of the plan is to get plants to grow outside. Once you get that ball rolling you don't need as much "inside' space.
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