tdelta1000
Active Member
It sounds like the author is helping to protect the interest of "BIG Oil"!!! If "BIG Oil" is confident that they will be around for a "while" then they should not EV bash.
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Electric Vehicle Bashing WaPo
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The last WP article was iffy but note:
Charles Lane, EV hater
Too cold for EVs
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/27/AR2011012706170.html
Electric Car Cult
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/29/AR2010102905959.html
EVs never gonna happen
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/28/AR2009042801191.html
He gets traction too:
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2011/01/electrifying_electric_car_news.html
Charles Lane, EV hater
Too cold for EVs
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/27/AR2011012706170.html
Electric Car Cult
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/29/AR2010102905959.html
EVs never gonna happen
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/28/AR2009042801191.html
He gets traction too:
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2011/01/electrifying_electric_car_news.html
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Just received an email about this: Tell Kaplan & The Washington Post: Stop Cashing In On Low-Income Students | Change.org
I thought this part in the email was interesting:
I thought this part in the email was interesting:
Boston Consulting Group strikes again:
AUTOS
JUNE 15, 2011
By JEFF BENNETT
Auto makers could cut vehicle emissions and hit government fuel-efficiency targets over the next decade by improving the internal combustion engine rather than rolling out fleets of electric cars, according to a new study.
Technologies such as turbochargers and friction-reduction components can make gasoline-powered engines more efficient, damping electric-vehicle purchases, especially in the U.S., according to data released Tuesday by management consultants Boston Consulting Group.
The findings offer a counterpoint to the current push behind electric vehicles as the superior alternative to weaning Americans off their reliance on oil. The study suggests that downsizing the engine and using technologies to stop and restart an engine when idling could use the government aid now supplied to alternative-fuel vehicles.
The study also found that China and Europe—helped by government incentives—will be the largest markets for electric vehicles by 2020 rather than the U.S. BCG's study, which updates a January 2009 report, said it used its own funds to conduct the study.
"Electric cars will undoubtedly play an increasingly large role in many countries' plans in the decades ahead as energy independence and environmental concerns intensify," said Xavier Mosquet, a Detroit-based senior partner, global leader of BCG's Automotive practice and lead author of the study. "But they will gain only modest ground to 2020. Gas- and diesel-powered vehicles are improving faster than expected and will continue to dominate the global landscape."
The BCG study's key conclusion is auto makers can hit most of the future fuel-efficiency and emissions-reduction targets that governments are imposing on the industry in the next 10 years, and do it by introducing or improving known automotive technologies. "I'm not saying it's easy, but it's feasible," Mr. Mosquet said.
BCG estimated fuel-saving improvements such as electronic power-steering systems, light-weight materials and more efficient transmissions would add about $2,000 to the price of vehicles.
The need for car makers to pursue electric vehicles in the near-term is "minimal," the study said. However, auto maker must continue to develop electric vehicles since they will "undoubtedly" play a major role in meeting 2035 to 2050 emissions, it added.
Electric vehicles face stiff competition from gas engines and won't be the preferred option for many consumers based solely on the total-cost of ownership, according to the study. Battery packs needed to power the vehicles are expected to cost between $360 to $400 a usable kilowatt-hour by 2020. However, to the consumer, this still represents a cost of $9,600 a vehicle for the typical battery.
Consumers, BCG said, will pay between $50 and $60 on average for each new technology that reduces greenhouse gas emissions by one percentage point. The cost gap gives auto makers less incentive to push electric vehicles to meet 2020 emission regulations.
The effect of more efficient engines can be seen on the sales of hybrid, gasoline-electric models. In May, hybrids made up only 1.6% of vehicle sales, even though gasoline was more than $4 a gallon in many areas, according to automotive information website Edmunds.com. That's compared to an all-time-high of 3.56% in July of 2009, during the government's cash-for-clunkers campaign, which provided discounts on the purchase of fuel-efficient cars.
Bill Reinert, Toyota Motor Corp.'s chief advanced technology researcher, said in an interview Tuesday the competition between fuel efficient internal combustion engines and diesel engines has made it more difficult to sell the benefits of more expensive hybrid technologies.
"You really, really have to make a value proposition," he said. Making the same proposition to much more costly electric vehicles that have limited range will be difficult.
—Mike Ramsey contributed to this article.
AUTOS
JUNE 15, 2011
By JEFF BENNETT
Auto makers could cut vehicle emissions and hit government fuel-efficiency targets over the next decade by improving the internal combustion engine rather than rolling out fleets of electric cars, according to a new study.
Technologies such as turbochargers and friction-reduction components can make gasoline-powered engines more efficient, damping electric-vehicle purchases, especially in the U.S., according to data released Tuesday by management consultants Boston Consulting Group.
The findings offer a counterpoint to the current push behind electric vehicles as the superior alternative to weaning Americans off their reliance on oil. The study suggests that downsizing the engine and using technologies to stop and restart an engine when idling could use the government aid now supplied to alternative-fuel vehicles.
The study also found that China and Europe—helped by government incentives—will be the largest markets for electric vehicles by 2020 rather than the U.S. BCG's study, which updates a January 2009 report, said it used its own funds to conduct the study.
"Electric cars will undoubtedly play an increasingly large role in many countries' plans in the decades ahead as energy independence and environmental concerns intensify," said Xavier Mosquet, a Detroit-based senior partner, global leader of BCG's Automotive practice and lead author of the study. "But they will gain only modest ground to 2020. Gas- and diesel-powered vehicles are improving faster than expected and will continue to dominate the global landscape."
The BCG study's key conclusion is auto makers can hit most of the future fuel-efficiency and emissions-reduction targets that governments are imposing on the industry in the next 10 years, and do it by introducing or improving known automotive technologies. "I'm not saying it's easy, but it's feasible," Mr. Mosquet said.
BCG estimated fuel-saving improvements such as electronic power-steering systems, light-weight materials and more efficient transmissions would add about $2,000 to the price of vehicles.
The need for car makers to pursue electric vehicles in the near-term is "minimal," the study said. However, auto maker must continue to develop electric vehicles since they will "undoubtedly" play a major role in meeting 2035 to 2050 emissions, it added.
Electric vehicles face stiff competition from gas engines and won't be the preferred option for many consumers based solely on the total-cost of ownership, according to the study. Battery packs needed to power the vehicles are expected to cost between $360 to $400 a usable kilowatt-hour by 2020. However, to the consumer, this still represents a cost of $9,600 a vehicle for the typical battery.
Consumers, BCG said, will pay between $50 and $60 on average for each new technology that reduces greenhouse gas emissions by one percentage point. The cost gap gives auto makers less incentive to push electric vehicles to meet 2020 emission regulations.
The effect of more efficient engines can be seen on the sales of hybrid, gasoline-electric models. In May, hybrids made up only 1.6% of vehicle sales, even though gasoline was more than $4 a gallon in many areas, according to automotive information website Edmunds.com. That's compared to an all-time-high of 3.56% in July of 2009, during the government's cash-for-clunkers campaign, which provided discounts on the purchase of fuel-efficient cars.
Bill Reinert, Toyota Motor Corp.'s chief advanced technology researcher, said in an interview Tuesday the competition between fuel efficient internal combustion engines and diesel engines has made it more difficult to sell the benefits of more expensive hybrid technologies.
"You really, really have to make a value proposition," he said. Making the same proposition to much more costly electric vehicles that have limited range will be difficult.
—Mike Ramsey contributed to this article.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Huh? They expect batteries to cost $360-$400 per kWh by 2020? Isn't that in the ballpark of what Tesla's batteries cost NOW?
300 mi pack has ~20kWh more than the 230mi pack, and we know Tesla's charging $10k for it. 20kWh * $360/kWh = $7200...given some profit, that's not too far off from next year's prices.
Didn't Tesla's Roadster battery replacement deal cost $12k? 53 kWh * $360/kWh = $19,080... Either Tesla's willing to lose a lot of money when Roadster owners decide to replace their battery, or Tesla knows a few things this "research group" doesn't.
If my numbers are right, this "study" is junk.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
More junk...Damn, $9,600 per battery sounds like an excellent deal...why are they making it sound negative? Surely batteries will last 10 years by 2020...they almost do already. In the most pessimistic estimate, 10 years of driving, given 12,000 miles per year at 40 mpg and $4/gal costs $12,000...
The battery replacement deal is $12K now, replacement battery in seven years. So if you bought in 2010, then it might say something about the expected cost in 2017. Then there's also the time value of money.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
OK, so maybe the $360/kWh might be a reasonable value, given that Tesla's probably around $480/kWh for the Model S...but I think their low estimate is on the high end of what we'll actually see. Most estimates I've seen predict drops of 20-25% for Li-Ion alone by 2020, but that's ignoring new chemstries and technologies. Over 9 years there's certainly going to be a breakthrough that will drop price below that trend.
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This one was not so bad since they point out a problem we agee with.
Electric car range - The Washington Post
All those stupid slow chargers are being called out for what they are. Useless.
Also interesting Nissan say most trips are 7 miles. Tesla must have this kind of data also.
Electric car range - The Washington Post
All those stupid slow chargers are being called out for what they are. Useless.
Also interesting Nissan say most trips are 7 miles. Tesla must have this kind of data also.
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