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Electric Vehicle Bashing WaPo

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Dave was trying out one of the tips posted on the owners forum. The topic on the owners forum was "strategies for using a Tesla Roadster to meet women..."

Um, not really, James! However, I will note that the people I saw looking at the Roadster were mostly male, with most of the women walking right past it, hardly noticing. Then there were the baristas calling it a "Barbie Car", which by their tone, I didn't take to be a ringing endorsement. Based on this unplanned experiment, the strategy fails.
 
Does the EV industry have a trade association? If not, we/they need to start one and perhaps hire some consultancy to produce material that can be used to push back hard, before too much ground is lost.

I don't know if there is an EV manufacture's association at this early stage. We know Tesla has a lobbyist but at some point they will need to combine forces with other car makers like GM, Fisker, etc, with common interests.

As for now there are groups like EAA and PIA who have been recently looking for help with combating these stories in the comment sections and in blogs.
 
As for now there are groups like EAA and PIA who have been recently looking for help with combating these stories in the comment sections and in blogs.

I know these guys do a good job, but if the opposition is starting to play hard ball (albeit in a low key way), then the fight needs to be taken beyond blogs and to regulators and law makers. The politicians needs to be shown that this "evidence" is anything but.
 
I don't think this report is all negative. Their preferred scenario is 28% penetration of alternative propulsion technology vehicles by 2020, which sounds great to me!

I do agree the battery numbers have potentially skewed the pure EV TCO, which is only 2.7% of total sales in 2020 in their model.

The last page of the BCG report lists the authors email addresses and invites contact for more information.

The four authors are:

Michael Book
Marcus Groll
Xavier Mosquet
Georg Sticher

They all appear to be based in BCG's European offices, with the exception of Mosquet in Detroit.

Why doesn't someone draft a response to BCG from the forum? It must include some credible numbers for LiPo battery pricing rather than anecdotal information if you want to have any impact.

Ideally a response would include several credible EU and Detroit sources for LiPo at a competitive price that they could call. This is the way analysts typically operate.

Also, the end of the report says it was sponsored by BCG's Energy and Industrial Goods practice. If BCG are a credible group, I doubt very much anyone else sponsored this report as suggested above.
 
@8ball

Would the email that I have already sent to their press contact for the report (posted here on May 4th) provide a basis to work from? Feel free to suggest some updates.

@James

It was your original $340/kWh (reported by you elsewhere in this forum from your RAV4 conversion) that I used when I wrote the above mentioned email to ask BCG to correct and republish the report. If as 8ball suggests you can offer a referenceable source that the BCG consultants can call to verify, that would be great. Can you do so (respecting any NDAs etc)?

@all

What would be the approach to making an "official" response from the forum as 8ball suggests? Is it an idea people like?

Andrew
 
Here someone is selling new A123 packs for $856/Kwh:
A123 Batteries Built Into Modules 3.3v@115AH - DIY Electric Car Forums
A123 would be likely be considered a higher quality product compared to Thundersky. Even at $857/Kwh people on that forum were calling them too pricey.


NorthernPiker's Comments on ABAT: Advanced Battery Technologies, Inc. -- Seeking Alpha
...Large-format LiFePO4-based batteries sell for over $1,000 per kWh while Tesla’s 53 kWh, LiCoO2-based, replacement battery pack supposedly sells for less than $500 per kWh. If about 1.4 kg of lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) containing 0.26 kg of lithium is required per kWh for the three mentioned battery chemistries, then a LiCoO2-based battery pack would use about $10 worth of lithium (0.26 kg of Li @ $35 per kg) and about $55 worth of cobalt (2.2 kg @ $25 / kg.) per kWh of battery capacity. For LiFePO4- and LiMn2O4-based batteries, the iron and manganese cost, @ 25¢ and $1.30 per kilogram, are about 50¢ and $5.50 per kWh, respectively....
 
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What would be the approach to making an "official" response from the forum as 8ball suggests? Is it an idea people like?

I'm not sure an official response from "the forum" is a good idea.

We aren't (as of yet) a political or a media organization with a unified editorial voice, nor should we be. Yes many of us might agree on things. But this is a forum of individuals with individual opinions. I certainly don't want the comments of say VFX*, for example, representing me or the forum as a whole.

As a moderator, I often make editorial decisions based on appropriateness, but not on the poster's opinion. Short of spamming and trolling, people get to say what they want (please stay on topic, however!).

So a unified voice of individuals that are EV enthusiasts and TMC forum members is fine, but I'd prefer the forum not take official positions. This is, of course, just my own individual opinion.


*(Sorry, I often pick on VFX because I know he knows I'm just teasing (or am I?? :wink:).)
 
I agree with Doug above, but I have no problem with a submission of the "we, the undersigned" type, which mentions that the contributors know each other through this forum.

Who wants to draft something for people to sign up to?
 
@James

It was your original $340/kWh (reported by you elsewhere in this forum from your RAV4 conversion) that I used when I wrote the above mentioned email to ask BCG to correct and republish the report. If as 8ball suggests you can offer a referenceable source that the BCG consultants can call to verify, that would be great. Can you do so (respecting any NDAs etc)?

I am a valid source. I am owner (CEO, President, Chief Yahoo, etc) of an import and distribution company that I co-founded. We resell LiFePO4 large format cells that are designed for EV conversions.

I have purchased about $250,000 worth of these batteries in the past 30 days. I have the invoices and wire transfers to China to prove the exact current pricing. I can provide all of the specs to show the performance and their suitability for EVs. In fact, we currently have a 1996 RAV4 EV conversion that can do 90 mph top speed and can drive 100 miles in range at 65 mph.

The battery pack that I am building for a 2009 RAV4 EV conversion is 33 kwh.
105 cells X 100 Ah each.
These are Sky Energy SE cells, which are actually better than Thundersky, but it is a newer company.

I sell them retail at $110 each.
It works out to about $352 per kwh.

My actual cost is less than that.
 
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NorthernPiker's Comments on ABAT: Advanced Battery Technologies, Inc. -- Seeking Alpha

...Large-format LiFePO4-based batteries sell for over $1,000 per kWh while Tesla’s 53 kWh, LiCoO2-based, replacement battery pack supposedly sells for less than $500 per kWh. If about 1.4 kg of lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) containing 0.26 kg of lithium is required per kWh for the three mentioned battery chemistries, then a LiCoO2-based battery pack would use about $10 worth of lithium (0.26 kg of Li @ $35 per kg) and about $55 worth of cobalt (2.2 kg @ $25 / kg.) per kWh of battery capacity. For LiFePO4- and LiMn2O4-based batteries, the iron and manganese cost, @ 25¢ and $1.30 per kilogram, are about 50¢ and $5.50 per kWh, respectively....

If you ever want to comment on another website to discredit this false information, feel free to copy and paste this info into your response to help in the internet info war.

Large-format LiFePO4-based batteries sell for over $1,000 per kWh if you buy them from a guy on Ebay who bought them from a reseller in Taiwan who bought them from the factory in China.

For Tesla or any other auto manufacturing company, they don't buy them from the guy on Ebay at $1,000 per kWh. They buy them from the factory in huge quantities and they are shipped by the container load. They are NOT shipped by UPS for a reseller guy in Phoenix AZ (who is the 2nd or 3rd middleman with a markup) to the auto manufacturer. That is what it would take to achieve a stupid price like $1,000 per kwh.

To put this in perspective, I will show you a few links.

Here is Elite Power Solutions. They are a USA based reseller offering a 60 Ah cell for $120.
So that is about $2.00 per Ah retail. That works out to about $640 per kwh. I know what his cost was and it was MUCH less than what he is selling them at retail for.

Here is another company reselling them for $2.58 per Ah. That is really close to $825 per kwh. This guy is making a killing if anyone is actually buying at that price. On his 90 Ah cells he is selling at $2.00 per Ah or $640 per kwh.

The retailers that are more realistic sell them for about $1.50 per Ah retail in small quantities. That is about $480 per kwh.

Here is a guy in Seattle (near me) selling them for $1.89 per Ah and $1.25 per Ah. Notice that he wrote "Closeout Sale! We have decided not to sell Batteris anymore." That is because he is aware that I am selling them for $1.10 per Ah ($352 per kwh) now and the brands I have are higher quality. He is dumping his batteries and getting out of that category.

If any real "consultant" did some research on this topic, he would find that an auto manufacturing company would have a cost of under $300 per kwh for batteries that are perfectly designed for an EV.

This chemistry of battery is not suitable for Tesla. Tesla wants really high performance which requires a different energy discharge. For a regular vehicle that needs to do 100 mph and have good acceleration, the LiFePO4 chemistry is great and will last 3,000 cycles at 70% DOD.
 
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If any real "consultant" did some research on this topic, he would find that an auto manufacturing company would have a cost of under $300 per kwh for batteries that are perfectly designed for an EV.

I find it sad that some unchecked, probably written by the work experience kid report has the ability to skew a whole industry in this way. Welcome to the world of tech lobbying.
 
Here we go again...

New study expects electric vehicles to only be 2-5% of market by 2020

Deloitte blames the continued high cost of batteries and limited driving range for what it projects will be about 2-5 percent market penetration by the end of the decade. The consulting firm is projecting that batteries will drop to about $600 per kilowatt-hour which would still put the 24 kWh pack in the Nissan Leaf at $14,400. Some reports put the battery pack's price at just $9,000 today.
 
EDN bashing of EVs

http://www.edn.com/blog/Anablog/39635-Electric_vehicles_the_reality_sets_in_.php

about Tesla
The New
York Times has an article about Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla Motors. It
points out that the Tesla family car, the Model S will only come about with hundreds
of million dollar federal loans and guarantees. The article has quotes like “It
eerily reminds me of the DeLorean,” says Scott Sweet, a partner at a financial
advisory firm called IPO Boutique…” It reminds me more of Preston Tucker. I wonder
if Elon will make us buy luggage to finance his company? I guess the stock
market sees past some of the hype. After and IPO price of 30 bucks, Tesla stock
went down to $16 and has bounced back to 20 bucks. I guess losing 33% is better
than losing 50%. The article also notes that the employment situation at Tesla
is like a soap opera, and that does not include the small plane
crash that killed three of its engineers this year. To me the article pains
a portrait of Musk that reminds me of the movie American Psycho. He comes
across like a supremely ambitious and cocky guy that tics off his employees and
gets mad at hardware engineers when they can’t defy the laws of physics.