Deliveries have ceased - where are all the cars going?

[Todd Burch]

Tesla wouldn’t stockpile cars in Fremont. They’ll send them out to stores/service centers so that they can be delivered ASAP in Q3.

 

[Sneakerbuddy]

Tesla wouldn’t stockpile cars in Fremont. They’ll send them out to stores/service centers so that they can be delivered ASAP in Q3.

No way. Show me even one close to credible report of stockpiled M3's anywhere. My son was just at the Fremont factory today.....no trucks leaving with cars and no stockpiles that he could see there. Certainly none in Dallas, that lot is empty. So where are the cars??

 

[Bays]

I heard Tesla also ships cars by train. They have train lines for loading cars at their factory: https://www.google.com/maps/place/3...1s0x0:0x0!7e2!8m2!3d37.4964895!4d-121.9435883

 

[Dana1]

There’s another thread where a couple of folks have gotten VINs in last couple of days with configures ~5/21. I configured 5/24 but no VIN yet.

 

[bgbolton]

I heard Tesla also ships cars by train. They have train lines for loading cars at their factory: https://www.google.com/maps/place/37°29'47.4"N+121°56'36.9"W/@37.4964911,-121.9446832,366m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m9!1m2!2m1!1stesla+factory!3m5!1s0x0:0x0!7e2!8m2!3d37.4964895!4d-121.9435883

Sneakerbuddy based on this forum they must got a boring tunnel with train station to load thousands of cars then hold them on trains before unloading in july to stick it to liberals shorts.

I got enough distortion from trump can we keep tesla forums based in reality please?

 

[Bays]

I heard Tesla also ships cars by train. They have train lines for loading cars at their factory: https://www.google.com/maps/place/37°29'47.4"N+121°56'36.9"W/@37.4964911,-121.9446832,366m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m9!1m2!2m1!1stesla+factory!3m5!1s0x0:0x0!7e2!8m2!3d37.4964895!4d-121.9435883

Scrap that, based on drone footage from April, they tore up that whole section of train loading tracks.

 

[manishee]

Scrap that, based on drone footage from April, they tore up that whole section of train loading tracks.

Is there reason to believe that factory restarted after upgrades? I have not seen any article saying how they have improved since the upgrades, or if they have crossed the 6K/week target.

 

[mongo]

8 carriers was when, during May? That was consistent with 6,000 deliveries during a month. So, sure, deliveries are up 25% in June.

I dont think they could casually store thousands of cars all around the country and not get noticed. I mean they could but then someone would find and report a lot in LA or Dallas that had hundreds of new M3s on it. I think crowdsourcing would pick it up.

There is no ground data that I know of that is reporting reliable production numbers. But all the other tea leaves point to the same thing...not not piling up inventory of finished goods, not assigning VINs, not delivering cars, not taking new reservations = not making many cars.

A couple farfetched ideas since it is late where I am...

Still on the rail cars
In a warehouse by the rail yard
On a boat.

You do point out a separate issue, suppliers are shipping their parts at whatever rate they can. So either Tesla is sitting on an increasing inventory and letting the payment clock trickle down, or they are turning them into finished goods to sell ASAQ3.
Another option is they are having supplier issues and need to buffer parts to hit a couple weeks of 5k+ for end of Q2. (that would not bode well for inventory costs)
They may also be doing needed line tweaks which is slowing output.
Without @augkuo at work, we're flying blinder than usual.

Last wacky ideas:
The finished cars are in the part storage towers
Or the huge dirt moving operation at tower closest to the rail yard was a tunnel to ???

 

[eprosenx]

I like the title of this thread. If Tesla is producing so many cars where are they? I would imagine going to Canada and few deliveries in the U.S.
I think most people are in agreement that Tesla is intentionally delaying hitting 200k deliveries in Q2. With this in mind Tesla should start assigning VINS to people back East who have been waiting for April Configs due to the time it takes to deliver the cars. I am not sure how long it takes for the cars to arrive from Fremont to back East. If they start assigning VINS then delivery could happen in July.

For West coast or closer to the factory perhaps the last week of June might make sense for VIN assignments.

They could also be forward staging the cars in your destination city but not telling you about it so you don't demand to have it delivered. ;-) . Perhaps all our cars (for folks that have ordered) have been produced and are waiting for us and in the last week of the month they will schedule a delivery time for us.

It is not like we don't know the car is coming, so we can all have our ducks kind of in a row. I would drive down and pick it up right now if I could. July 1 will be a madhouse.

 

[Big Earl]

The obvious thing here is that Tesla is avoiding delivering the two hundred thousandth car in the USA prior to July 1st. So I get that, but now my question:

Where the heck are all these cars going? Presumably the factory is in full swing again?

It does not appear to me that Canadian deliveries make up for the "missing cars".

Are they sitting in a lot in Fremont? Are they all being pushed out through the distribution system to far-away locations and so they are on trains or transporters? Is Tesla contracting for lots all around the US in the destination cities to store them? Are they stacking up at the delivery centers?

Yes to all of the above. Tesla is using all of these measures to divert or delay US deliveries. Once July 1st rolls around, expect a flood of US deliveries to begin.

All good questions. I took delivery in Toronto last Saturday and the various posts have reported 200+ deliveries per day at the International Center location. I saw dozens of deliveries at the same time as mine with upwards of maybe 40+ groups of individuals and families milling about as I was taking delivery and my coordinator was out with another person within 2 minutes of finishing up with me while I was still pulling my hubcaps off. That's just the Toronto delivery center. I was driving east from the city just yesterday and saw a few carriers loaded with mostly Model 3's (and X's) that I can only assume are headed to Montreal (and have a few photos to prove it). I'm only speculating, but if Toronto is delivering about 200 a day, that's say 1200-1400 a week and the rest of the country may be absorbing much of the rest in June with a few still happening in the US of course. They booked the International Center (large conference center) through end of June, so I think this will keep up the rest of the month as long as there is sufficient demand. I expect all attention will be back to US deliveries on July 1 as you state and they will once again forget about Canada in order to maximize the number of rebates available in the US over the next several quarters. The Ontario government is changing over to a leader that isn't keen on the rebates here, so Tesla is focused on getting as many cars through before our $14,000CAD rebate is (speculated to be) cancelled by the new government. I will say, that the frustration you feel melts away once you start driving the car, and I'm sure Tesla is counting on that. Best of luck!

Thanks for sharing your experiences. This gives a pretty clear idea of what’s going on in Canada right now.

 

[Bays]

Is there reason to believe that factory restarted after upgrades? I have not seen any article saying how they have improved since the upgrades, or if they have crossed the 6K/week target.

Yes, they said they hit 3500 units a week in the shareholder call.

 

[kengchang]

No way. Show me even one close to credible report of stockpiled M3's anywhere. My son was just at the Fremont factory today.....no trucks leaving with cars and no stockpiles that he could see there. Certainly none in Dallas, that lot is empty. So where are the cars??

Tesla can't sell in Texas so can't stockpile in Texas.

There's piles of Model 3 at Burbank Airport for SoCal that was spotted a while ago

 

[mongo]

Tesla can't sell in Texas so can't stockpile in Texas.

They aren't that outlawed, are they?

 

[ebmcs03]

They’re prob shipping at night to keep under the radar.

 

[GoneCrazy]

They aren't that outlawed, are they?

Cars can't even enter the state unless they've been fully purchased. No unowned cars allowed in the state.

 

[eprosenx]

Cars can't even enter the state unless they've been fully purchased. No unowned cars allowed in the state.

I am pretty sure Tesla can trans-ship cars through the state to other states where they are to be sold without being owned by an individual yet.

I am thinking that would clearly be covered by the Inter-state-commerce-act (or something to that effect). Individual states can not interfere with commerce between other states... Kind of one of those fundamental things. ;-)

 

[bgbolton]

They’re prob shipping at night to keep under the radar.

So they sneak out at dusk and then??? Hold on trains for july? Put in boring tunnels? Where are the secret cars?!

Russia if you are listening I hope you are able to find the 30k cars that are missing!!

 

[trunkmonkey]

Cars can't even enter the state unless they've been fully purchased. No unowned cars allowed in the state.

That's been my worry/question for a while. Assuming I'm in the "pushed to July for tax credit reasons" group, will Tesla wait until July to give me a VIN, pushing actual delivery out several weeks with time for financing and shipping added in, or will they give it mid-June and ship the car so I can take delivery in early July?

I ask because I'm exactly 8 weeks from configuring with no VIN.

First-world problems, I know, but being in Texas might make the wait even longer.

TM

 

[fscar3333]

That's been my worry/question for a while. Assuming I'm in the "pushed to July for tax credit reasons" group, will Tesla wait until July to give me a VIN, pushing actual delivery out several weeks with time for financing and shipping added in, or will they give it mid-June and ship the car so I can take delivery in early July?

I ask because I'm exactly 8 weeks from configuring with no VIN.

First-world problems, I know, but being in Texas might make the wait even longer.

TM

Did your edit button disappear (assuming that means Vin assigned)? I'm in TX, had July email and noticed edit button gone this morning.. 7 weeks from config.. So there's hope!

 

[Sneakerbuddy]

Cars can't even enter the state unless they've been fully purchased. No unowned cars allowed in the state.

Tesla has to be paid in full before they deliver the car in Texas. I am not sure if the car can be in state or out of state when they accept the money. But, once they are paid, they bring the cars to the state, prep them for delivery, and then hand over to the customer.

I end up seeing the cars when they are in prep for delivery. This is easy for me because I am right near the Dallas delivery center. Here is my log of activity:
- March one visit; 12 M3s waiting.
- April three visits; 7 M3s waiting each time. So 21 total seen during the month.
- May one vist; one car waiting.
- June one visit so far; two cars waiting for delivery. Also one car waiting for service and one car where delivery was refused due to damage to the body in transit and they dont know what to do with it.