Coronavirus

[electracity]

Which does what, exactly ?

Not sure what you mean. The purpose of a vaccine is to get R0 below 1. A vaccine doesn't guarantee an individual's protection from the virus.

AFAIK the influenza vaccine isn't particularly effective for older people. It's primary benefit is keeping younger people virus free so they don't kill older people.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Bars are already not complying to social distancing. Govenor has already warned them. Mask compliance is high, that has been of great help.

In San Diego County, we have had a mandatory masking ordinance for months. Compliance has been high.

Things are now starting to spiral out of control, even in the face of increased testing. Outbreaks are occurring at bars, businesses, restaurants, and grocery stores.

Hopefully this is just temporary, and dominated by lack of compliance with masking, but contact tracing is already overwhelmed and we’ll be going back on the watch list.

Good luck. It may help to be small geographically, in spite of higher density. Easier to keep track of what is going on. SDC is 4x larger than RI. 3x the population of RI.

As of a couple weeks ago, we had the same cases per capita as RI. Now we have tripled that.

 

[SageBrush]

The purpose of a vaccine is to get R0 below 1.

You are mistaken. We vaccinate to protect those so treated. If vaccination + natural infection reaches a threshold call "Herd immunity" then epidemic math implies no further exponential growth.

Let's say daily reported cases are 100k a day when herd immunity is reached. What is the highest, constant daily count we might see going forward ?

 

[AZRI11]

In San Diego County, we have had a mandatory masking ordinance for months. Compliance has been high.

Things are now starting to spiral out of control, even in the face of increased testing. Outbreaks are occurring at bars, businesses, restaurants, and grocery stores.

Hopefully this is just temporary, but contact tracing is already overwhelmed and we’ll be going back on the watch list.

Good luck. It may help to be small geographically, in spite of higher density. Easier to keep track of what is going on. SDC is 4x larger than RI. 3x the population of RI.

Difference is we had our outbreak more than two months ago. That seems to be the trend worldwide and in USA. You need a big outbreak of cases, if cases are low per million it's like a ticking time bomb waiting to explode. It's different of course if your a Scandinavian country were social distancing has already been in place for centuries. Sweden being the outlier.

 

[jerry33]

AFAIK the influenza vaccine isn't particularly effective for older people. It's primary benefit is keeping younger people virus free so they don't kill older people.

1. There is a different flu vaccine for older people. 2. If you have shots annually, you are better protected than if you just get one every few years. As far as I have heard, people who keep their vaccinations (of all types) up to date live longer (and better) than those who don't.

 

[Doggydogworld]

On that day, it will be best to refer to the epi curve for LA & California to see what is happening.

Well, epi curves show what happened a couple weeks ago, not what "is happening".

Sure, but how would you prove who is the one to sue?

By looking at virus mutations. But suing people who transmit is good theory, terrible practice. It would massively discourage people from getting tested or "ratting out" their friends. People are already hostile enough to test&trace as it is.

ICU capacity is a lagging indicator

Think about the implication:
ICU capacity 85% today, reflecting daily cases from ~ 5 days ago

Indeed, but it's actually worse. Infection to ICU lag is more like 15-20 days. And if your outbreak starts with the young, it can take 4-6 WEEKS before you see a noticeable rise in ICU counts.

Cases up, deaths down. Weaker virus? Younger avg age cases?
View attachment 560753

1. Infection-to-death lag
2. Younger infectees (see above)
3. Better treatments - less ventilators and more conv plasma, blood thinners, steroids, Remdesiver, etc.

Only the third is permanent. The lags self-resolve and the young will infect the old eventually.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Well, epi curves show what happened a couple weeks ago, not what "is happening".

Sure. But they also provide the latest available information, if you are careful to interpret them properly. They never provide info on what is currently happening, nor does any publicly available data. You really need an animated GIF for these epi curves, though.

Like this:
https://twitter.com/co_hurricane/status/1279160963661312000?s=21

Someone finally did what I suggested! Should be the new standard for presentation of this information. Just smooth running cycling videos of the various curves. People love videos.

Makes it so clear that deaths are rising rapidly in AZ, and have been for weeks.

 

[SageBrush]

Infection to ICU lag is more like 15-20 days

Not so far as I know. Talking medians here ...

1. Exposure
2. 4 - 7 days: Sick (and I presume tested)
3. 5 more days until hospitalization
4. 2 more days until ICU

However, the sickest tend to reach stage (2), (3) and (4) earlier, meaning their course is quicker than the median. The majority of the case load will be apparent by day 7 after testing but the trend will be evident sooner.

 

[EVCollies]

Not sure what you mean. The purpose of a vaccine is to get R0 below 1. A vaccine doesn't guarantee an individual's protection from the virus.

AFAIK the influenza vaccine isn't particularly effective for older people. It's primary benefit is keeping younger people virus free so they don't kill older people.

No, it does reduce severity of illness for younger healthier patients as well as elderly ill patients.

What are the benefits of flu vaccination

 

[SageBrush]

From the Miami Herald today

HOSPITALIZATIONS
On Tuesday, the office of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis confirmed to the Miami Herald that the state would start reporting current hospitalization numbers for all counties some time this week.

The change comes following a surge of cases in recent weeks with public health experts and the nonprofit COVID Tracking Project, a volunteer group that has become the most prolific coronavirus data collector in the country, pressuring the state to start reporting current hospitalizations. That metric, they say, is a clearer way of assessing the pandemic’s severity.

While the state hasn’t started reporting current hospitalization numbers, Miami-Dade has been. That number has risen 21 consecutive days, going from under 600 to 1,538 in that time, according to Miami-Dade County’s “New Normal” dashboard data.

Friday saw, for the first time, Miami-Dade’s ICU availability moving into Red Flag territory in the county’s daily coronavirus report. COVID-19 patients are taking up more than 70 percent of available ICU beds.

 

[dfwatt]

The vaccines primary purpose is to exceed the herd immunity threshold. There's a good chance that individual protection will be incomplete.

Not really. The point of a vaccine is to protect the vaccinated. There is additional feedback protection so to speak on the herd. But the goal is not herd immunity but individual immunity. Achieved one inoculation at a time. Of course if people would accept vaccination we could get to herd immunity. But the anti vaxxer movement has been so successful in making people paranoid about vaccination that we've had a resurgence of diseases we had virtually eliminated. I suspect you will see especially in some far-right groups an absolute refusal to get a covid-19 vaccination if and when one becomes available.

As someone once said the gene pool needs some chlorine.

 

[SageBrush]

I suspect you will see especially in some far-right groups an absolute refusal to get a covid-19 vaccination

Far-right, and New-Age goofs. Strange times when those two agree.

 

[HG Wells]

Far-right, and New-Age goofs. Strange times when those two agree.

You ain't seen nothing yet.

Woman attacks rack of face masks at Target.
Doin it for the Q don't ya know.

Arizona woman claiming she’s Trump’s spokesperson goes nuts at local Target and attacks face mask rack

 

[eevee-fan]

 

[Kant.Ing]

FYI a different narrative: What's Herd Immunity, and How Does It Protect Us?

Not sure about Covid's vaccination candidates at this point, maybe only some of us can enjoy them.

 

[N5329K]

Woman attacks rack of face masks at Target.

Who won?
Robin

 

[eevee-fan]

 

[Curt Renz]

The Telegraph through Yahoo - today: Exclusive: Covid-19 may not have originated in China, Oxford University expert believes

 

[SMAlset]

You ain't seen nothing yet.

Woman attacks rack of face masks at Target.
Doin it for the Q don't ya know.

Arizona woman claiming she’s Trump’s spokesperson goes nuts at local Target and attacks face mask rack

Click on the Twitter feed and watch it there along with the cops arresting her apparently, video post is after it. All I can say is how embarrassing for women and Jewish women, if she is one. I have to wonder if they took her in for a 48 hour or more mental eval. If we are going to run with conspiracy theories here, have the russians put something in our drinking water or has the covid gotten into the brains of these female maskless, mask-haters that is leaving holes in their brain cells?! Will trump bail her out since she works for him? As covid runs on, and I do think it will be prevalent for a number of years, I suppose we can only expect to see more of people's bad, wreckless, irrational behavoir. If he doesn't get elected I can only wonder what these women will do then. Since I've only seen women throwing tantrums, is this a genetic thing LOL?

 

[jerry33]

Not really. The point of a vaccine is to protect the vaccinated. There is additional feedback protection so to speak on the herd. But the goal is not herd immunity but individual immunity. Achieved one inoculation at a time. Of course if people would accept vaccination we could get to herd immunity. But the anti vaxxer movement has been so successful in making people paranoid about vaccination that we've had a resurgence of diseases we had virtually eliminated. I suspect you will see especially in some far-right groups an absolute refusal to get a covid-19 vaccination if and when one becomes available.

As someone once said the gene pool needs some chlorine.

And you can make it at home with EcoloxTech.