Coronavirus

[bkp_duke]

I disagree, here's the data:
If you look at excess mortality from Euromomo : https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ you'll realize this is equivalent to a bad influenza season. 2014/2015 had 144k . 2020 Covid has 148k. And since its a late outbreak the "excess mortality" will only be inflated since the baseline is lower. If you go by total mortality instead you'll realize that 16/17 and 17/18 are also at equivalent levels from 2020 outbreak and 14/15 is quite higher. If you go back to 99/2000 it was an actual destruction by today's media standards. P.S. for 2014/2015 data you'll have to go to their historical bulletins, it doesn't appear in the graphs anymore. It was 30% worse than 16/17 so you have an idea.

Also take a look at IFR. IFR for flu is well known to be 0,1% throughout many years of studying. Often is under. But it also goes higher. Italy has seasons at 0,3-0,7% :
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/...vLM_8VAmC_Hrxd7FUHxre_sPwFxA8d0z6VrBN_aInPd4o

Serological tests are telling us CV19 to be in the 0,2-0,5% ballpark, equivalent to a bad influenza season: PCR and Serological Studies

Come at me with your answer and data

Flaw in your reasoning:

1) COVID-19 data is for basically 2 months, average influenza season is 5-6 months, a bad one is 7-8 months.
2) COVID-19 data is with STAY AT HOME and social distancing. Influenza is not.

This is not a bad flu. The mortality rate is about 6-10X higher.

 

[Norbert]

I disagree, here's the data:
If you look at excess mortality from Euromomo : https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ you'll realize this is equivalent to a bad influenza season. 2014/2015 had 144k . 2020 Covid has 148k. And since its a late outbreak the "excess mortality" will only be inflated since the baseline is lower. If you go by total mortality instead you'll realize that 16/17 and 17/18 are also at equivalent levels from 2020 outbreak and 14/15 is quite higher. If you go back to 99/2000 it was an actual destruction by today's media standards. P.S. for 2014/2015 data you'll have to go to their historical bulletins, it doesn't appear in the graphs anymore. It was 30% worse than 16/17 so you have an idea.

The "cumulated" display is misleading since it compares numbers from a long flu season with a COVID-19 spread that started not long ago. If you switch from "cumulated" to "weekly" you see that the numbers are much higher. Without mitigation, the numbers would be even higher, and not end soon. (EDIT: Besides, it seems the numbers are only going down as much as that because data is incomplete at the end, the usual problem.)

Also take a look at IFR. IFR for flu is well known to be 0,1% throughout many years of studying. Often is under. But it also goes higher. Italy has seasons at 0,3-0,7% :
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/...vLM_8VAmC_Hrxd7FUHxre_sPwFxA8d0z6VrBN_aInPd4o

Serological tests are telling us CV19 to be in the 0,2-0,5% ballpark, equivalent to a bad influenza season: PCR and Serological Studies

Come at me with your answer and data

The only reliable large scale test so far is New York City. It shows an IFR of around 1% or a bit higher, at least close to 1%. My guess is 1.29%.

Many small studies are for extremely low death counts, ignore death lag or atypical age distribution in the sample.

 

[TEG]

So I see that VP Pence is now self-isolating at home. That's smart given it was his aide. Report said he has tested negative so far.
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Pence spokesperson denies vice president is 'in quarantine' amid reports of self-isolating over coronavirus
Mike Pence Denies He's Self-Isolating After Staffer Catches Coronavirus
Pence will not self-quarantine and plans to be at the White House Monday - CNNPolitics

...An official said there is extreme sensitivity inside the White House at the current state of affairs with officials recognizing the contradiction in telling states to reopen while the White House enhances protocols to prevent the spread of the coronavirus....

...In conversations this weekend, Trump has expressed concern that aides contracting coronavirus would undercut his message that the outbreak is waning and states should begin reopening, according to a person who spoke to him...

 

[bkp_duke]

Pence spokesperson denies vice president is 'in quarantine' amid reports of self-isolating over coronavirus
Mike Pence Denies He's Self-Isolating After Staffer Catches Coronavirus
Pence will not self-quarantine and plans to be at the White House Monday - CNNPolitics

@dfwatt - I'm assuming you have a truckload of your moron spray en route to the white house.

 

[shinytop]

@dfwatt - I'm assuming you have a truckload of your moron spray en route to the white house.

Where do you think he got the ingredients to grow his spray? Edited to add it might have been from mules.

 

[GFernandes]

Flaw in your reasoning:

1) COVID-19 data is for basically 2 months, average influenza season is 5-6 months, a bad one is 7-8 months.
2) COVID-19 data is with STAY AT HOME and social distancing. Influenza is not.

This is not a bad flu. The mortality rate is about 6-10X higher.

1) So you want more accurate measure: Take the 2 worst months in 2016/2017, 2017/2018 and then compare to 2019/2020, yes there is a difference of 4%. You can use your mouse to check each week. You cant do thee same with 2014/2015 but with some research you'll get there: It was 30% worse than 2016/2017.

2) We have absolutely no way of saying that without those restrictions the result would be worse. IMO, based on serological results, the virus was here way before any lockdown could mean anything. What works is wash your hands, and if you're sick you stay home.

3) This is equivalent to a bad influenza season, i showed you the current IFR estimates. I also showed you what a bad influenza season IFR looks like. Do you have data to back your 6-10X higher number? I wont even mention that influenza has a high% of vaccination to risk populations. Some countries in EU have achieved 70+% of risk population vaccinated this year.

 

[GFernandes]

The "cumulated" display is misleading since it compares numbers from a long flu season with a COVID-19 spread that started not long ago. If you switch from "cumulated" to "weekly" you see that the numbers are much higher. Without mitigation, the numbers would be even higher, and not end soon. (EDIT: Besides, it seems the numbers are only going down as much as that because data is incomplete at the end, the usual problem.)



The only reliable large scale test so far is New York City. It shows an IFR of around 1% or a bit higher, at least close to 1%. My guess is 1.29%.

Many small studies are for extremely low death counts, ignore death lag or atypical age distribution in the sample.

You can use your mouse and compare the 12 weeks of CV19 with the worst 12 weeks in each of the seasons i mentioned. Spoiler alert, CV19 was 4% higher. You cant do the same exercise for 2014/2015, but if you go to their historical bulletins you'll find that it was 30% stronger than 2016/2017.

"Without mitigation, the numbers would be even higher, and not end soon" How so? I mean now that many countries are opening we should be seeing a second wave no? The numbers should continue to go higher and higher and not end anytime soon, lockdown would only be a temporary solution to them?

( Yes, data will be more reliable this thursday, when next week is updated and already touching the baseline. Then we can measure the area under the curve and reach our conclusions. Happy to revisit then )

Why "the only reliable large scale test" is the one that wasn't even fully released on paper? Why ALL the others are not reliable? That's just ridiculous. You choose the one with worse results to make your point.

EDIT: Extrapolating a hard hit zone to get the real IFR for CV19 is the same as me using the Italy study i mentioned above for telling you whats the IFR of flu. This respiratory diseases have have stronger outbreaks in certain zones.
EDIT2: I wont even go on excess deaths caused by lockdown. Hard to measure exactly, but deff there. Lack of care for cardiovascular disease ( kill as much as pulmonary) being the main one.

 

[madodel]

@dfwatt - I'm assuming you have a truckload of your moron spray en route to the white house.

The moron bubble walls are extra thick there.

 

[Norbert]

You can use your mouse and compare the 12 weeks of CV19 with the worst 12 weeks in each of the seasons i mentioned. Spoiler alert, CV19 was 4% higher. You cant do the same exercise for 2014/2015, but if you go to their historical bulletins you'll find that it was 30% stronger than 2016/2017.

I don't see 12 weeks of COVID-19 on that graph. The spread starts at week 11, and I guess after week 15, there is either incomplete data, or it falls off. In order to make your argument in this way, you would need a case where you don't have stay-at-home, social distancing, and closing of non-essential businesses, to have a fair comparison. Or some evidence that it would have ended on its own. None of that exists. Nevertheless, switch to "Weekly" in "Excess mortality", you see week 14 at 34,360. That's about 3x the previous max.

Why "the only reliable large scale test" is the one that wasn't even fully released on paper? Why ALL the others are not reliable? That's just ridiculous. You choose the one with worse results to make your point.

I already said why. And we discussed a few of them on this thread. Those discussions were too complex to quickly repeat here.

EDIT: Extrapolating a hard hit zone to get the real IFR for CV19 is the same as me using the Italy study i mentioned above for telling you whats the IFR of flu. This respiratory diseases have have stronger outbreaks in certain zones.

The IFR is most often used to make an argument about the upper limit of death "cost", most often in relation to herd immunity. So using a "hard hit zone" like NYC is the right to do. Even so, few people, if any, assume that NYC has reached herd immunity.

Also, "IFR" is the death rate among the infected only, not among the population, and having a higher infection level is not known to cause a higher IFR. Although I consider that possible, and have wondered a few times if that might be the case. If it actually is, that would only be an additional reason to choose NYC, since the question being asked is usually: what happens if there are a lot of infections.

EDIT: I've read that Italy is about to make a larger scale study as well, involving 150,000 tests.

 

[Mader Levap]

We have absolutely no way of saying that without those restrictions the result would be worse.

Claiming that restrictions like lockdown or social distancing not only doesn't help, but make things worse is finest example of COVID-19 denialism* in action. It is pretty much at level of denying germ theory of disease.

* Umbrella term for claims that COVID-19 either does not exist or it is "not that bad", usually politically motivated, though other loonery (medical/health crankery etc) gets into action too.

 

[MXLRplus]

New York's government just realized that nursing homes are a serious problem. It took them almost 3 months to read the news and react to it.

 

[bkp_duke]

1) So you want more accurate measure: Take the 2 worst months in 2016/2017, 2017/2018 and then compare to 2019/2020, yes there is a difference of 4%. You can use your mouse to check each week. You cant do thee same with 2014/2015 but with some research you'll get there: It was 30% worse than 2016/2017.

2) We have absolutely no way of saying that without those restrictions the result would be worse. IMO, based on serological results, the virus was here way before any lockdown could mean anything. What works is wash your hands, and if you're sick you stay home.

3) This is equivalent to a bad influenza season, i showed you the current IFR estimates. I also showed you what a bad influenza season IFR looks like. Do you have data to back your 6-10X higher number? I wont even mention that influenza has a high% of vaccination to risk populations. Some countries in EU have achieved 70+% of risk population vaccinated this year.

@dfwatt - send a shipment to Lisbon please. Looks like things are no better there than here.

 

[SMAlset]

Forbes had this on NY:

"New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said 521 new coronavirus cases were reported Saturday, bringing the state “right back to where we started on this hellish journey” on March 20—when the state had around the same number of cases— sparking the shutdown of businesses and schools to slow the virus’ spread....

During his Sunday press conference, Cuomo said the previous day’s reported deaths, 207, brought New York back to March 27’s reported death toll, one week after he issued stay-at-home orders....

Cuomo also said that the state is investigation up to 85 cases of children presenting with Kawasaki-like disease that could be possibly linked to COVID-19..."

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This thread is going into full on hyperdrive. What's wrong, don't think we'll hit 6 digits?

Not to worry, we're doing as shitty a job as possible containing spread. We should still limp over the 100k death mark some time in June.

 

[MXLRplus]

Forbes had this on NY:

"New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said 521 new coronavirus cases were reported Saturday, bringing the state “right back to where we started on this hellish journey” on March 20—when the state had around the same number of cases— sparking the shutdown of businesses and schools to slow the virus’ spread....

During his Sunday press conference, Cuomo said the previous day’s reported deaths, 207, brought New York back to March 27’s reported death toll, one week after he issued stay-at-home orders....

Cuomo also said that the state is investigation up to 85 cases of children presenting with Kawasaki-like disease that could be possibly linked to COVID-19..."

More importantly, up to now, NY would deliberately send sick C19 patients into nursing homes. Huge body count. Today they rescinded that directive and new residents and returning residents must be tested first.

Lock that barn quick so we can go look for February's horses.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Serological tests are telling us CV19 to be in the 0,2-0,5% ballpark, equivalent to a bad influenza season: PCR and Serological Studies

Dude, the first study on that list is of London health care workers. Is that really at all representative of the population of London?
Obviously you can come up with a list of mostly garbage and then take an average of that garbage and get garbage.
With the flu the susceptible population is much smaller, it's less contagious, and less deadly.

 

[eevee-fan]

Flaw in your reasoning:

1) COVID-19 data is for basically 2 months, average influenza season is 5-6 months, a bad one is 7-8 months.
2) COVID-19 data is with STAY AT HOME and social distancing. Influenza is not.

This is not a bad flu. The mortality rate is about 6-10X higher.

I guess the 'special' people think the result of a nuclear war is no big deal since the sudden death of all humanity is less than the number of people who had already died since the beginning of the human species. Bring on the nuclear winter!

 

[Daniel in SD]

More importantly, up to now, NY would deliberately send sick C19 patients into nursing homes. Huge body count. Today they rescinded that directive and new residents and returning residents must be tested first.

Lock that barn quick so we can go look for February's horses.

Here is Cuomo's interpretation of the situation on April 23rd:
"Nursing homes, they are our top priority. They have been from day one. Remember how the nursing home system works. They are private…
… [inaudible 00:15:00] how the nursing home system works. They are private facilities. They get paid to provide a service. They get regulated by the state government. There are certain rules and regulations that they must follow, and we put in additional rules and regulations on nursing homes in the midst of this crisis.
Staff must have appropriate PPE. They must have their temperatures checked before they come into the facility.
There are no visitors who are coming into the facility, which is a tremendous hardship, but it’s necessary to protect public health.
If they have a COVID-positive person in the facility, that person has to be in quarantine.
They have to have separate staff for the COVID residents versus the non-COVID residents.
If they can’t care for the person in the facility, they have to transfer the person to another facility. The nursing home is responsible for providing appropriate care. If they cannot provide that care, then they have to transfer the person to another facility.
They have to notify residents and family members, within 24 hours, if any resident tests positive for COVID or if any resident suffers a COVID-related death. That is a regulation that they have to follow.
They have to readmit COVID-positive residents, but only if they have the ability to provide the adequate level of care under Department of Health and CDC guidelines. If they do not have the ability to provide the appropriate level of care, then they have to transfer that patient or they call the Department of Health, and the Department of Health will transfer that patient. That is how the relationship works."

 

[dhanson865]

US rank 1, 1, 3, 8 and climbing.

 

[MXLRplus]

Here is Cuomo's interpretation of the situation on April 23rd:
"Nursing homes, they are our top priority. They have been from day one. Remember how the nursing home system works. They are private…
… [inaudible 00:15:00] how the nursing home system works. They are private facilities. They get paid to provide a service. They get regulated by the state government. There are certain rules and regulations that they must follow, and we put in additional rules and regulations on nursing homes in the midst of this crisis.
Staff must have appropriate PPE. They must have their temperatures checked before they come into the facility.
There are no visitors who are coming into the facility, which is a tremendous hardship, but it’s necessary to protect public health.
If they have a COVID-positive person in the facility, that person has to be in quarantine.
They have to have separate staff for the COVID residents versus the non-COVID residents.
If they can’t care for the person in the facility, they have to transfer the person to another facility. The nursing home is responsible for providing appropriate care. If they cannot provide that care, then they have to transfer the person to another facility.
They have to notify residents and family members, within 24 hours, if any resident tests positive for COVID or if any resident suffers a COVID-related death. That is a regulation that they have to follow.
They have to readmit COVID-positive residents, but only if they have the ability to provide the adequate level of care under Department of Health and CDC guidelines. If they do not have the ability to provide the appropriate level of care, then they have to transfer that patient or they call the Department of Health, and the Department of Health will transfer that patient. That is how the relationship works."

Seems his new speech after several hundreds of deaths later is a bit different. Apparently putting C19 patients into a super spreader didn't go so well?

He's not the only one who made the same mistake.

BTW - Since when did Cuomo start thinking about businesses as being private? That's bizarre coming from him.