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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Looks like all these protests are centrally organized. Its like tea party II.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yeah I've seen this. There are some calculators out there that allow you to simulate the same thing with this bootstrap method with appropriate parameters (posted earlier in the thread). Would love for the Miami folks to do the same with the Miami-Dade data.
Guess we wait for the paper in this case.
Here is a link to underlying study:
Low incidence of daily active tobacco smoking in patients with symptomatic COVID-19 - Article (Preprint v3) | Qeios
Low incidence of daily active tobacco smoking in patients with symptomatic COVID-19
Makoto Miyara1, Florence Tubach1, Valérie POURCHER1, Capucine Morelot-Panzini1, Julie Pernet1, Julien Haroche1, Said Lebbah1, Elise Morawiec, Guy Gorochov2, Eric Caumes1, Pierre Hausfater1, Alain COMBES1, Thomas Similowski, Zahir Amoura1
Author(s) details
- Assistance Publique – Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris, France
- Université Pierre et Marie Curie (Paris VI), France
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Assuming no mitigation and no effort to stop the spread, yes you would likely get to 2 million deaths. That would be the treated case rate fatality (~0.5 or so conservatively) plus a large additional bolus of all the folks who might have survived if they had even just Hospital level care who could not get taken care of. Only a depraved person would see that as anything but horriffic.
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More australian modelling, this time sydney uni
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.10218v2....GWC9Ew9iBEWRSJwAWVPpU9KgfB736ev8D5-zeATNC5e7c
'
baseline assumption that R0 = 2.4, while examining values between 2.0 and 2.6 [26]. In our model, R0 was investigated in the range between 1.6 and 2.8, by varying a scaling factor κ responsible for setting the contagiousness of the simulated epidemic, as explained in Appendix C [14, 16]. The value of R0 = 2.27 κ = 2.75)
School closures: SC Adding school closures to the case isolation approach also does not achieve a significant reduction in the overall attack rate (Fig. 3). While the peaks of both incidence and prevalence are delayed by about two weeks (15 days for both incidence and prevalence), due to a slower growth rate of cumulative incidence, their magnitudes remain practically the same. We also traced the dynamics resulting from SC strategy for two specific age groups: children and individuals over 65 years old, shown by Fig. 4 and 5. The two-week delays in occurrence of the peaks are observed across both age groups, suggesting that there is a strong concurrence in the disease spread across these age groups. We also observe that, under this strategy, there is no difference in the magnitude of the incidence peak for the older age group. Interestingly, for children, the magnitude of the incidence peak increases by about 8% under the SC strategy coupled with case isolation, shown by Fig. 4. This may be explained by increased interactions of children during various household and community social mixing, when schools are closed. In short, the only tangible benefit of school closures, coupled with case isolation, is in delaying the epidemic peak by two weeks, at the expense of a slight increase in the contribution of children to the incidence peak. Given other societal costs of school closures (e.g., drawing their parents employed in healthcare and other critical infrastructure away from work), this strategy may be less effective than previously suggested (e.g., school closures are considered an important part of pandemic influenza response). There is, nevertheless, one more possible benefit of school closures, discussed in the context of the overall social distancing, as described below.
Australian context, early April publication 24 million software agent model based upon the Australian census.
Unlike flu, it seems school closure would slightly increase child covid19 infection. (Again, australian scenario)
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.10218v2....GWC9Ew9iBEWRSJwAWVPpU9KgfB736ev8D5-zeATNC5e7c
'
baseline assumption that R0 = 2.4, while examining values between 2.0 and 2.6 [26]. In our model, R0 was investigated in the range between 1.6 and 2.8, by varying a scaling factor κ responsible for setting the contagiousness of the simulated epidemic, as explained in Appendix C [14, 16]. The value of R0 = 2.27 κ = 2.75)
School closures: SC Adding school closures to the case isolation approach also does not achieve a significant reduction in the overall attack rate (Fig. 3). While the peaks of both incidence and prevalence are delayed by about two weeks (15 days for both incidence and prevalence), due to a slower growth rate of cumulative incidence, their magnitudes remain practically the same. We also traced the dynamics resulting from SC strategy for two specific age groups: children and individuals over 65 years old, shown by Fig. 4 and 5. The two-week delays in occurrence of the peaks are observed across both age groups, suggesting that there is a strong concurrence in the disease spread across these age groups. We also observe that, under this strategy, there is no difference in the magnitude of the incidence peak for the older age group. Interestingly, for children, the magnitude of the incidence peak increases by about 8% under the SC strategy coupled with case isolation, shown by Fig. 4. This may be explained by increased interactions of children during various household and community social mixing, when schools are closed. In short, the only tangible benefit of school closures, coupled with case isolation, is in delaying the epidemic peak by two weeks, at the expense of a slight increase in the contribution of children to the incidence peak. Given other societal costs of school closures (e.g., drawing their parents employed in healthcare and other critical infrastructure away from work), this strategy may be less effective than previously suggested (e.g., school closures are considered an important part of pandemic influenza response). There is, nevertheless, one more possible benefit of school closures, discussed in the context of the overall social distancing, as described below.
Australian context, early April publication 24 million software agent model based upon the Australian census.
Unlike flu, it seems school closure would slightly increase child covid19 infection. (Again, australian scenario)
jhm
Well-Known Member
Exactly. I live in the Atlanta area. We are doing a good job of slowing the spread locally inspite of being the highest density area of the state. What happened in Albany, southwestern corner of the state, could happen anywhere. Low population density is no protection.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Dang, could we just focus on the medicinal virtues of Marijuana? It's worth a try, and lots of people would be happy to sign up for a clinical trial. Stuck at home? No job? Worried you might get Covid-19? No problem man.
Listening to KPIX5 (SF) and Solono County has extended the SIP to 5/17. London Breed, SF Mayor, said today that it is likely SF and other counties will do the same for a few more weeks or another month (yes she said month). People may remember that Gov. Newsom said a while back based on their projections they have been expecting the apex to be in mid-May.
Coronavirus Update: San Francisco Mayor Says Extension Of Shelter Order 'Very Likely'
Coronavirus Update: San Francisco Mayor Says Extension Of Shelter Order 'Very Likely'
“People are asking about this: ‘Will the public health order get extended?’ The likelihood of that is very likely and what that means is, y’know, another few weeks or even a month of asking you all to comply and to remain at home as you continue to follow the social distancing orders that we put forth,” said Mayor Breed.
San Francisco issued the nation’s first shelter in place order on March 16 along with Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Santa Clara and San Mateo counties, restricting all but essential activities.
This likely will mean Tesla's plant in Fremont I would think.San Francisco issued the nation’s first shelter in place order on March 16 along with Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Santa Clara and San Mateo counties, restricting all but essential activities.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Disclaimer: Wild, unsupported speculation follows
A couple times a day I pause to wonder why children have such a relatively mild response to Covid-19. It belatedly occurred to me that one trivial answer is that they have cross-reactive neutralizing antibodies from recent infections with other Coronaviridae. A quick Google search unearthed HCoV-NL63 S1-CTD as one example that also binds to the ACE2 receptor. Perhaps antibodies to the viral binding domain for the DPP4 receptor would also be neutralizing for nCOV-SARS-19
If true it would certainly ease the search for a vaccine
A couple times a day I pause to wonder why children have such a relatively mild response to Covid-19. It belatedly occurred to me that one trivial answer is that they have cross-reactive neutralizing antibodies from recent infections with other Coronaviridae. A quick Google search unearthed HCoV-NL63 S1-CTD as one example that also binds to the ACE2 receptor. Perhaps antibodies to the viral binding domain for the DPP4 receptor would also be neutralizing for nCOV-SARS-19
If true it would certainly ease the search for a vaccine
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jhm
Well-Known Member
Video segment on KPIX5 (SF) running today and on the news tonight about Covid19 and dangerous oxygen levels in people who are not or barely showing symptoms. And how using a Pulse Oximeter can help identify if you need to get into the hospital earlier to lessen the severity and possibily save your life.
Dr. John Schwartzberg of UC, an infectious disease expert, talks about using one. BTW the one they show he has is the Walgreen's one we just bought the other day. As the headlines of the article say, demand of Pulse Oximeters are now in demand. When I looked online yesterday afternoon, my local store said they had limited stock but in stock with 3-5. Had my husband headed out then to pick one up in case they sold out. He said they had 3 in stock and he bought one and later that night online they had sold out. So yeah, everyone will be looking for them like toilet paper.
Demand for Pulse Oximeters Soars During COVID-19 Pandemic
Dr. John Schwartzberg of UC, an infectious disease expert, talks about using one. BTW the one they show he has is the Walgreen's one we just bought the other day. As the headlines of the article say, demand of Pulse Oximeters are now in demand. When I looked online yesterday afternoon, my local store said they had limited stock but in stock with 3-5. Had my husband headed out then to pick one up in case they sold out. He said they had 3 in stock and he bought one and later that night online they had sold out. So yeah, everyone will be looking for them like toilet paper.
Demand for Pulse Oximeters Soars During COVID-19 Pandemic
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
All vaccine development starts with the native virus. Starting from a less virulent strain would be a boon. At its most primitive, the clinically mild virus is the vaccine, which is essentially my conjecture for children.
thebabydoc
Member
Attachments
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
If they make sense for the public to buy at all, reserve them for symptomatic Covid infections so that they will be available where they might be useful.
By the way, whether a hypoxic person feels dyspneic or not, they will have elevated respiratory rates.
And one other detail the physician promoting these devices should have mentioned: Hgb O2 saturation is a lagging indicator of lung involvement. If you are curious about the underlying reasons, look up the oxyhemoglobin dissociation curve.
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Jordanian government ministry of health
Twitter
Re Covid9
1) Advise is to reduce sugars and refined carbs as they weaken the immune system
2) Advise is to reduce carbohydrates during the day, eat low carb or even keto as it reduces blood sugar levels and improves the immune system.
Re Covid9
1) Advise is to reduce sugars and refined carbs as they weaken the immune system
2) Advise is to reduce carbohydrates during the day, eat low carb or even keto as it reduces blood sugar levels and improves the immune system.
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Doggydogworld
Active Member
A medical s/w company in CA tested their employees for antibodies and found 10% of the 415 samples were positive. They didn't get full participation, but enough that it wasn't just the "though they had it" crowd. I assume these people were working from home, so it shouldn't be a pork processing plant type of cluster. Don't know which test they used, but they chose it after discussing options with people who hopefully knew better than to recommend one with 90% (!!) specificity.
The NY test wasn't perfect, but at least the results make sense. These other tests are all over the map.
The NY test wasn't perfect, but at least the results make sense. These other tests are all over the map.
The conquest of soft drinks in middle east is resulting in pandamic of T2D that makes Covid19 seem mild, except T2D is slower and not contagious.
But anyway, its pretty obvious that the severity of covid19 is contemporarious with excessive sugar and carbs.
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