Coronavirus

[SageBrush]

He said he thought he was having a stroke.
So, is it more akin to a stroke or just a flu?

Exactly. Does he go to the ER every time he thinks he has the flu ?

Does he wonder if in a couple of days he will be on a vent when he has the flu ?

 

[SageBrush]

From Vox, reporting on polling from Jun 16 - 22. My bolding

A new survey from the Pew Research Center found that 40 percent of Americans now believe the worst of Covid-19 is in the past, up from 26 percent in early April. That number includes the majority of Republicans, 61 percent of whom said the country has already suffered the worst of the pandemic.

If it is any consolation, Pinocchio agrees and Chucky is busy tweeting conspiracy theories

 

[Singuy]

Looking at newest report from FL shows that new hospitalized pts is essentially flat. +2 pts in my county even though we had another +800 new cases. Wave 2 seems to be less deadly due to the population being infected. Based on my hospital data, new hospitalization spiked mid last week and has remained somewhat flat, discharging same or more pts than coming in for Covid.

Florida reports reduction of COVID-19 cases for the first time in days

 

[eevee-fan]

Looking at newest report from FL shows that new hospitalized pts is essentially flat. +2 pts in my county even though we had another +800 new cases. Wave 2 seems to be less deadly due to the population being infected. Based on my hospital data, new hospitalization spiked mid last week and has remained somewhat flat, discharging same or more pts than coming in for Covid.

Florida reports reduction of COVID-19 cases for the first time in days

... perhaps big part due to more precautions being taken at hospitals and nursing homes, the most vulnerable.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Looking at newest report from FL shows that new hospitalized pts is essentially flat. +2 pts in my county even though we had another +800 new cases. Wave 2 seems to be less deadly due to the population being infected. Based on my hospital data, new hospitalization spiked mid last week and has remained somewhat flat, discharging same or more pts than coming in for Covid.

Florida reports reduction of COVID-19 cases for the first time in days

Historically, Sunday and Monday are "down" days for cases, presumably due to reporting issues. Wouldn't expect hospitalization data to show that cycle quite as much, but hospitalization data in FL is only trending up slightly so far (as you'd expect at this point - hasn't been long enough since case growth started in earnest).

If this is a down day, not looking forward to Tuesday. But hopefully there's some actual robust downward trend (though there's no reason really to hope that as any changes in behavior won't have an impact for another week or so).

 

[Singuy]

... perhaps big part due to more precautions being taken at hospitals and nursing homes, the most vulnerable.

Yes I posted about the majority of elderly are still in mask while the younger folks ditched them 4-5 weeks ago. So it makes sense we are getting younger Covid+ population increase in our hospital admissions. Currently not a bad thing since this population is least affected by the virus' killing ability. It's also great that we don't see double or tripping of hospitalization after that

Historically, Sunday and Monday are "down" days for cases, presumably due to reporting issues. Wouldn't expect hospitalization data to show that cycle quite as much, but hospitalization data in FL is only trending up slightly so far (as you'd expect at this point - hasn't been long enough since case growth started in earnest).

If this is a down day, not looking forward to Tuesday. But hopefully there's some actual robust downward trend (though there's no reason really to hope that as any changes in behavior won't have an impact for another week or so).

Hospitalization skyrocket and tripled over a span of a week if you look at the data I provided. However it has leveled off which is weird because our dramatic spike in cases only happened to the last few days. Are new hospitalization data ahead of new cases?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Hospitalization skyrocket and tripled over a span of a week if you look at the data I provided. However it has leveled off which is weird because our dramatic spike in cases only happened to the last few days. Are new hospitalization data ahead of new cases?

I was talking about the state as a whole in terms of the trends. But an increase from ~0 to 110 when your previous high was 50 with nearly no disease previously doesn't seem like much of an increase to me. Seems pretty mild. I guess we'll see. Depends on your exact location (I don't remember) - no idea exactly what is the local situation and how it aligns with timing of case growth.

No idea on the lags and how they work out. Still, I doubt that the bulk of hospitalizations will lag cases, as it's about a week until hospitalization from what I understand (you would probably know better).

Workbook: Public

 

[HG Wells]

Unfortunately I think we are getting our hopes up.
Time will tell.

 

[linux-works]

I'm absolutely convinced that a metric based approach is our best tool at early detection of physical illness

so, its just a matter of measuring temperature in C rather than F and using grams instead of ounces?

interesting.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Sorry if this has been covered, but why aren't deaths spiking yet? Is this all 28 year olds making up the hospitalization spike? If so, doesn't that mean literally everyone and their mother has or is getting this virus in wave 1?

I'm quite surprised to see the case spike without a death spike, even with our absolutely arbitrary testing "plan". Hope it's not just in the mail and gonna hit in 5 days.

 

[eevee-fan]

From past data, we would expect less hospitalization/death as a percentage but also longer hospitalization for those admitted to the hospitals.

 

[dhanson865]

apparently we are still testing too much, but at least our graph is red white and blue.

 

[Singuy]

I was talking about the state as a whole in terms of the trends. But an increase from ~0 to 110 when your previous high was 50 with nearly no disease previously doesn't seem like much of an increase to me. Seems pretty mild. I guess we'll see. Depends on your exact location (I don't remember) - no idea exactly what is the local situation and how it aligns with timing of case growth.

No idea on the lags and how they work out. Still, I doubt that the bulk of hospitalizations will lag cases, as it's about a week until hospitalization from what I understand (you would probably know better).

Workbook: Public

Our county is one of the worst hit second wave. We used to have under 100 new cases reported for months, now we are at 1k/day and yet our new hospitalization numbers have flatlined and I can't find any explanation for this.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Sorry if this has been covered, but why aren't deaths spiking yet? Is this all 28 year olds making up the hospitalization spike? If so, doesn't that mean literally everyone and their mother has or is getting this virus in wave 1?

I'm quite surprised to see the case spike without a death spike, even with our absolutely arbitrary testing "plan". Hope it's not just in the mail and gonna hit in 5 days.

I'm still planning not to get it!
Consensus here is:

• More testing = more cases getting caught.
• Younger.
• Better treatment.
• Lag! Hospitalizations are going way up, deaths will follow. Also, deaths take a while to be reported.

Just as a reminder again since memories are so short. . New York closed non essential businesses on the 22nd. This wave probably doesn't have quite as much momentum.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Unfortunately I think we are getting our hopes up.
Time will tell.

Yeah. Obviously we're nowhere near as bad (yet!) as we were in the first go-around in March. We have a lot fewer infections now than we had then.

But, the concern would be that things are going to kind of have to remain open this time around since we've kind of blown our wad there. That's going to lead to some pretty significant spread I would think. This appears to be a quite contagious virus, so not sure it is compatible with normal activities, like eating at restaurants, going to grocery/convenience stores, etc. Especially since masks are basically not allowed to be worn.

In our favor, we have the much vaunted summer weather which will bring it magically to zero.

I'm quite surprised to see the case spike without a death spike, even with our absolutely arbitrary testing "plan". Hope it's not just in the mail and gonna hit in 5 days.

Again, we have nowhere near as many infections as we had in March, so we've got some time to wait yet. Remember the lag will be considerably longer now, since we identify cases this time around. CFR has come way down of course (for obvious reasons), and IFR is probably about half or a third of what it was in March due to the population currently affected. So don't expect the same ratios as before. Second order effects are those mentioned before - early case identification, improved treatment, reduced inoculum, etc.

I think there should be a significant signal visible in the death numbers in the earliest states by the end of this week. It's already clearly visible in the AZ data, with a consistent and unrelenting upward rise in deaths, as you can see. (Yikes!) The deaths from ~June 12th exceeded the deaths from early May, just this week.

 

[eevee-fan]

COVID death "per year" 388 per 1M and growing
Vehicle fatality "per year" 112 per 1M... probably be much lower in 2020.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 10,238,028 Cases and 504,076 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
Motor vehicle fatality rate in U.S. by year - Wikipedia

 

[eevee-fan]

Houston hospitals hit 100% base ICU capacity. Then they stopped reporting data.

Glad to hear Houston is managing it so well and efficiently, 100% and holding steady.

 

[alloverx]

Interesting if the cases go up or plateau but the death rate stays low.
As long as hospitals are not stressed then it might become business as usual until vaccine available.
i.e. in theory cases going up is OK as long as hospital & death rates are low. Since are aim is minimal deaths.

 

[dfwatt]

Interesting if the cases go up or plateau but the death rate stays low.
As long as hospitals are not stressed then it might become business as usual until vaccine available.
i.e. in theory cases going up is OK as long as hospital & death rates are low. Since are aim is minimal deaths.

Perhaps the most important and obvious aim but not the only important aim. Preventing serious illness is also a consideration particularly in view of the evidence that serious illness with covid-19 looks like it may have long-term consequences in a significant percentage of the cases. Last but not least being really ill is painfully uncomfortable, and additionally, expensive as hell in this country. So while declining mortality or at least declining case fatality rate may be good news, we'd still be a hell of a lot better off limiting infection and accelerating progress towards a vaccine. How many patients do you think are going to be bankrupt because of covid-19? I don't know but I wager it's going to be well into six figures.

 

[HG Wells]

Perhaps the most important and obvious aim but not the only important aim. Preventing serious illness is also a consideration particularly in view of the evidence that serious illness with covid-19 looks like it may have long-term consequences in a significant percentage of the cases. Last but not least being really ill is painfully uncomfortable, and additionally, expensive as hell in this country. So while declining mortality or at least declining case fatality rate may be good news, we'd still be a hell of a lot better off limiting infection and accelerating progress towards a vaccine. How many patients do you think are going to be bankrupt because of covid-19? I don't know but I wager it's going to be well into six figures.

But Trump said he would pay for it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...f5fbb4-84b5-11ea-878a-86477a724bdb_story.html