Coronavirus

[TheTalkingMule]

Are you suggesting that infection rates are somehow static, and the only reason for the increase is the expansion of testing?

I'm suggesting that US growth figures appear far higher than the actual spread because we are just now testing and this has been spreading for weeks.

 

[Krugerrand]

Been reading individual accounts of ppl who fell sick in usa. Queuing in hospital, getting turned away. Symptoms getting worst. Plea for help. They remind me of some of the same stories I read from Wuhan.

But there is a difference. The medical staff moral is low. Ppl feel like they are being treated like cattle because there are no PPE. Hospital still work as a business so staff are walking off the job because it's no longer a "calling" but just business.

I am going to log off for a bit...

And yet my elderly father in-law just had a small heart attack a couple days ago and reports he’s getting excellent, timely care at the hospital. Fortunately he’s feeling well enough to text us updates.

A relative tried to go see him/get an update and they were stopped outside Emerg for a temperature check, hand sanitizing etc... They were then stopped inside Emerg by police and not allowed further entry.

I’ve noticed that the people you regularly report about talking to for information have a clear tendency for negative/worse case information.

I don’t doubt there are hospitals where the poo has hit the fan and places around the world where chaos is prolific and even nurtured.

But just so you know, there are members of the population who’ve got it together, who aren’t panicking, who even thrive in stressful environments. My best friend is an ICU nurse, their moral is just fine. They’re doing their job the best they can, as always. It’s what they chose to do in their life and they understood the risks when they signed up.

FYI, we have always been cattle. This isn’t a time for bedside manner. Get in and get out. Some people will die because of a lack of care, equipment or dozens of other reasons. It’s tragic. It’s life. We combat that by being better and doing better individually. Lead by example. Roll up your sleeves and get to work in whatever way you can.

 

[bkp_duke]

Some numbers out of Italy today:

Italy's coronavirus deaths surge by 627 in a day, elderly at high risk

Given that the US is the fattest nation on earth, this does NOT bode well for out population.

 

[SageBrush]

Are you suggesting that infection rates are somehow static

I know what you are getting at, but a 'static' infection rate is poorly defined.

 

[Cosmacelf]

There you go! Maybe talking for 8 days and 8 nights about a pandemic that has even hit yet.....is a tad unhealthy?

Tell me about it! I actually decided to work on my taxes yesterday. As a break...

 

[Cosmacelf]

Our "growth" will expand as rapidly as we catch up with testing. Not an indication of actual spread.

Nah. I did a couple of different analysis upthread where the results seem to show that we aren't keeping up with infection spread. Every day we are falling further behind. So the opposite of what you are saying seems to be true. Infections are spreading and growing faster than even our increased rate of testing is showing.

 

[bkp_duke]

Nah. I did a couple of different analysis upthread where the results seem to show that we aren't keeping up with infection spread. Every day we are falling further behind. So the opposite of what you are saying seems to be true. Infections are spreading and growing faster than even our increased rate of testing is showing.

BINGO. This virus is spreading far faster then we have the ability to test for it.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Some numbers out of Italy today:

Italy's coronavirus deaths surge by 627 in a day, elderly at high risk

15.8% of the us population is above 65 (vs 23% in Italy)
Also, I’m not sure we have lower levels of high blood pressure, diabetes, and heart disease...

 

[SageBrush]

I'm suggesting that US growth figures appear far higher than the actual spread because we are just now testing and this has been spreading for weeks.

True if you look at the log-normal trend of a day or two. You should be drawing a line between e.g 100 cases and now and computing the growth rate; just realize that reality is quite a bit worse due to the undiagnosed cases.

 

[SageBrush]

Also, I’m not sure we have lower levels of high blood pressure, diabetes, and heart disease...

I'm sure. Just google obesity

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Given that the US is the fattest nation on earth, this does NOT bode well for out population.

Yeah. I keep hearing diabetes popping up across the globe as a good combo for coronavirus death. Not great for us, but at least it's diabetes + being 83.

Mnuchin now saying lockdown for 10-12 weeks? Great job everyone, putting these morons in charge!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

True if you look at the log-normal trend of a day or two. You should be drawing a line between e.g 100 cases and now and computing the growth rate; just realize that reality is quite a bit worse due to the undiagnosed cases.

Certainly this variance can go both ways, and I'm in the "we're probably all gonna get it" camp, but looking at the initial growth as we ramp testing is pointless and arbitrary. Far from being statistically valid.

 

[SageBrush]

but looking at the initial growth as we ramp testing is pointless and arbitrary

If that is what you think I said then read again.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I'm suggesting that US growth figures appear far higher than the actual spread because we are just now testing and this has been spreading for weeks.

Exactly. The growth rate of the infection is about 12-14% per day in places where measures have not been put in place. The reported case growth rate as a % is certainly higher than the actual spread rate. Unfortunately, as an actual number (not a %), the number of infections is currently growing faster than our reported case numbers are growing.

There are likely about 100k infections in the US now.

 

[bkp_duke]

Anyone that believes China is not trying to sweep as much of this under the rug as they can, read this.

Medscape: 'Is That It?': Chinese Report Into Death of Doctor Who Raised Coronavirus Alarm Underwhelms (see attached full document)

Chinese Communist Party hard at work trying to control the narrative.

 

[N5329K]

Is anyone dead yet? This thread is like an s&m fetish chatroom.

First fatality on the Monterey Peninsula yesterday. Obviously (or should be), many, many more elsewhere, here, there and everywhere.
Robin

 

[X Fan]

Yeah. I keep hearing diabetes popping up across the globe as a good combo for coronavirus death. Not great for us, but at least it's diabetes + being 83.

Mnuchin now saying lockdown for 10-12 weeks? Great job everyone, putting these morons in charge!

Fair question: given the spread of the disease, what specifically would you be doing right now?

 

[Jayson]

And yet my elderly father in-law just had a small heart attack a couple days ago and reports he’s getting excellent, timely care at the hospital. Fortunately he’s feeling well enough to text us updates..

Where is the hospital he is in? Hot spots are developing in the U.S as they did in Italy, whereas other areas have yet to report significant infections. In any event his timing may have been pure luck, because one week from now there are going to be areas where someone having a heart attack will be in deep trouble. Do a search on: "LA Times, A Disaster Foretold"

 

[FoverM]

DW and I were talking about this CV mess the other day. One potentially good thing to come out of it would be some sort of new testing device. I don't really know how the current tests work but it should be clear to everyone now (USGov, general public, etc.) that it would be worthwhile for the Gov to spend many billions of $$$ to promote development of deployable tests. Not just for this event but for the seasonal flu and unpredictable events in the future. Some possibilities:

1. Holy Grail: simple, inexpensive permanent device for home use. Linked to internet so that it can get updated to test for new bugs. Or maybe inexpensive testing "cartridges" that are more specific to diseases that you buy when you need them.

2. Decent solution: more complex machine in grocery stores, CVS, Walgreens, etc. Like the free blood pressure machines already in those stores. We're seeing pop up CV testing being deployed right now, why not make it permanent, in-house, and more generic for future use?

The goal isn't laboratory-grade testing but rather simple screening. If Fred in the office turns up sick one day, you could pop over to a testing device to see if you have anything, too, and self-isolate for a few days if you're positive.

Is a more generic testing device possible theoretically or is it simply physically impossible? I don't know. If it is theoretically possible and I were President, I'd call Musk into the Oval Office and say, "here's $10B, come back to me with a prototype in two years". I'd pick Musk not because he's a healthcare/biology genius but rather that he's a problem-solving and organizational genius. I have faith in his ability to pick the right people for the job and his ability to whip them relentlessly until a solution is found.

 

[bhzmark]

BTW, in case anyone thinks you can ramp even N95 mask production quickly in this country:

Matt Parlmer → on Twitter

"I've been working on an N95 mask production project with a team for about a week now. We just got off the phone with NIOSH. They told us that approval for a new mask production facility in the US will take at minimum 45 days, but more likely 90. A lot of people are gonna die."

But hey, regulations are good, right?

Another twitter nonsense rumour tailored to generate red meat for those so inclined to blame the govt for everything. Masks for heathcare workers are regulated by FDA not NIOSH. He is wasting his time talking to NIOSH. Masks for construction and other industry workers are regulated by NIOSH. If anyone wants to make masks for heathcare workers FDA has an expedited process.

Here are some basics or any FDA regulatory atty can guide the process:
FAQs on Shortages of Surgical Masks and Gowns