Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1450408738897158147

Quote:
40% of the people who died in Maryland where fully vaccinated.

Why would that be unexpected? There are twice as many people in Maryland vaccinated as not, and they represent a much older and more vulnerable population on average than the unvaxxed. We already know the risk of death increases exponentially with age (3x per decade or so), but the vaccination “only” reduces death rates by a bit over an order of magnitude. So just ~3-4 decades of age difference in two groups (older vaccinated vs. younger unvaccinated) would put them at approximate parity.

Remember, we want 100% of deaths to be in vaccinated individuals. That would represent enormous success (note the number of deaths would be much much lower as a result).

 

[Terminator857]

Why would that be unexpected? There are twice as many people in Maryland vaccinated as not, and they represent a much older and more vulnerable population on average than the unvaxxed. We already know the risk of death increases exponentially with age (3x per decade or so), but the vaccination “only” reduces death rates by a bit over an order of magnitude. So just ~4 decades of age difference in two groups (older vaccinated vs. younger unvaccinated) would put them at approximate parity.

Remember, we want 100% of deaths to be in vaccinated individuals. That would represent enormous success (note the number of deaths would be much much lower as a result).

Yes it is expected. I posted that because of other posts that state 100% of those in hospitals are unvaccinated. Which I believe is false or inaccurate. What do you think?

Coronavirus

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@daniel

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I posted that because of other posts that state 100% of those in hospitals are unvaccinated. Which I believe is false or inaccurate. What do you think?

First, I don’t recall any such posts. However, in general, I think that was terrible messaging, since it was guaranteed to not ever be true even before Delta. (Delta definitely changed the balance as well as the dropping of NPIs.)

Vaccines work! Really really well. That’s the key. But if you’re vulnerable you still need to be very careful, until all the selfish people get vaccinated or infected. Unfortunately some of the very vulnerable do not have control of this.

I’d recommend in personal daily life keeping NPIs in place, until this thing has been proven to have run its course (I think this winter will be sufficient for that). Especially for the vulnerable. I’m beginning to be convinced we’ll see another decent-sized wave this winter. But that should be it.

 

[wdolson]

Nah, it's actually grown in the Salinas area, Monterey County, which went Biden +40.

I lived in San Luis Obispo county when in college. The coastal parts of the county are blue and the inland part red. I was assuming Monterey county would be the same. Last October I went to Morro Bay, but I didn't go anywhere else on the coast. The San Joaquin Valley was plastered with things making it clear there were a lot of Trump supporters.

Why would that be unexpected? There are twice as many people in Maryland vaccinated as not, and they represent a much older and more vulnerable population on average than the unvaxxed. We already know the risk of death increases exponentially with age (3x per decade or so), but the vaccination “only” reduces death rates by a bit over an order of magnitude. So just ~4 decades of age difference in two groups (older vaccinated vs. younger unvaccinated) would put them at approximate parity.

Remember, we want 100% of deaths to be in vaccinated individuals. That would represent enormous success (note the number of deaths would be much much lower as a result).

Also how many people died from COVID? If it was a small number like 5, you can get statistical outliers because of a small sample size.

 

[Terminator857]

First, I don’t recall any such posts. ...

Coronavirus

Government funded Covid drug now being exploited by price gouging pharma:

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I lived in San Luis Obispo county when in college. The coastal parts of the county are blue and the inland part red. I was assuming Monterey county would be the same. Last October I went to Morro Bay, but I didn't go anywhere else on the coast. The San Joaquin Valley was plastered with things making it clear there were a lot of Trump supporters.



Also how many people died from COVID? If it was a small number like 5, you can get statistical outliers because of a small sample size.

Looks like about 700 so a decent sample. (So less than 300 vaccinated deaths; vaccines work - probably over 3000 lives saved.)

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Coronavirus

Government funded Covid drug now being exploited by price gouging pharma:

teslamotorsclub.com

Thanks. The forum linking leaves a bit to be desired. I'm not going to dig into the specific stats for Maui and that particular neighborhood to see whether that happened to be true. It's obviously possible for a small enough number of patients with the right population demographics.

But it's silly messaging as I said. And not able to be generalized, even right after initial vaccinations in pre-Delta days.

 

[Terminator857]

Is it murder if we force someone to take the vaccine and they die from adverse reaction(s) to the vaccine? Did we murder that person?
Is o.k. to be selfish for someone not to want to undergo the risk of adverse reaction(s)?
Is it selfish for those that advocate vaccine mandates for low risk groups?
Do we know how many die in low risk groups, like young adults / teenagers / children, from Covid versus die from adverse reactions? If we don't know this, should we know, should we collect this data?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Is it murder if we force someone to take the vaccine and they die from adverse reaction(s) to the vaccine?

For the mRNA vaccines I am not aware of that happening. I do not suggest anyone get the J&J vaccine. This is not medical advice however.

Is o.k. to be selfish for someone not to want to undergo the risk of adverse reaction(s)?

Depends what they're concerned about. There are legitimate concerns and unfounded concerns. If the concerns are legitimate they can either get a legitimate doctor's exemption, or they can get a different vaccine.

Is it selfish for those that advocate vaccine mandates for low risk groups?

No, not selfish to mandate vaccines (note well: no one should be forced to get vaccinated - that's a totally different thing than mandates). The point is to save lives of those who are not low risk.

Do we know how many die in low risk groups, like young adults / teenagers / children, from Covid versus die from adverse reactions?

For mRNA vaccines, I believe the number is approximately zero (except for those where it is contraindicated due to known allergies to the ingredients, and I'm not even sure whether there have been fatal incidents there).
In any case, in this age group, it is at least two orders of magnitude less than the 500 children who have died from COVID.

It looks like pericarditis and myocarditis is largely a non-issue with the recent data coming out. It happens, particularly in young men, but generally resolves quickly and is far less common (10-20x less common) than the febrile seizures that come with MMR vaccination. Some of the initial papers, predictably, were complete nonsense.

The mRNA vaccines are awesome. They are remarkably safe and effective, and it appears they will generate long-lasting immunity (we'll see).

 

[madodel]

Is it murder if we force someone to take the vaccine and they die from adverse reaction(s) to the vaccine? Did we murder that person?
Is o.k. to be selfish for someone not to want to undergo the risk of adverse reaction(s)?
Is it selfish for those that advocate vaccine mandates for low risk groups?
Do we know how many die in low risk groups, like young adults / teenagers / children, from Covid versus die from adverse reactions? If we don't know this, should we know, should we collect this data?

Current vaccines are not in themselves toxic. They are not the Smallpox vaccine from 100 years ago, which could actually give you smallpox. They are no longer made from live virus but are either gutted, nonfunctional genetically altered virus vector like the J&J or just genetically manufactured synthetic mRNA particles like Pfizer and Moderna, which induce an immune response. That primes the manufacture of antibodies and also gives memory to the B and T cells for when you encounter an actual live viral load.

There have been over 700,000 deaths in the US and over 5 million worldwide from COVID. Almost all of those unvaccinated. There are maybe a few hundred from immune reactions to the vaccine. All I can tell you is that my wife, a cardiologist, sees active and long haul COVID patients every day here in my part of PA and they are almost all unvaccinated. Then again we are barely at 50% fully vaccinated of those able to qualify. The people who should be treated as murderers are the people spreading lies and misinformation about COVID leading all these people to get this illness and expose people like my wife to having to risk their lives everyday dealing with the consequences of people making the stupid choice to not get vaccinated.

 

[Terminator857]

500 deaths in the U.S. for 18 and under? Alan claims something like 5 deaths from adverse reactions to vaccine. Is there a reference for that?

 

[bkp_duke]

500 deaths in the U.S. for 18 and under? Alan claims something like 5 deaths from adverse reactions to vaccine. Is there a reference for that?

Any significant vaccine adverse events, by law, must be reported by health professionals (and false reporting is punishable by loss of license and/or imprisonment - so all healthcare professionals take this VERY seriously):

COVID-19 Vaccination

COVID-19 vaccines protect against COVID-19. Get safety info and more.

www.cdc.gov

You can search the database (VAERS) as it is publicly accessible.

As of Oct 5th, there were ZERO total deaths attributable to the vaccine in kids 18 and under:

A higher death rate from vaccines than COVID-19 for kids? No

Reacting to news that California will eventually require COVID-19 vaccinations for schoolchildren, a Twitter user claime

www.politifact.com

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Alan claims something like 5 deaths from adverse reactions to vaccine.

I actually claimed fewer than that, for that age group. It actually looks like the answer may well be zero, which does not surprise me at all. Anaphylaxis seems like the main risk, and responsible immunization should ensure that it either does not occur at all (since it is rare and high-risk individuals are easily identified) or is promptly treated.

I’m not sure where you are getting the idea that the mRNA vaccines are dangerous (well, maybe I do…). They seem to have an excellent track record of safety. It’s really miraculous (due to years of hard work from many scientists and doctors). A year ago, it was a bit of a gamble to get an mRNA vaccine. Now we know they are safe.

 

[Terminator857]

I searched VAERS and there were 20 deaths listed for:
Query Parameters:
Title: VAERS: Death after Covid Vaccine age 6-17
Age: 6-17 years
Date Died: 2021
Date of Onset: 2021
Date Report Completed: 2021
Date Report Received: 2021
Date Vaccinated: 2021
Event Category: Death
State / Territory: The United States/Territories/Unknown
Vaccine Products: COVID19 VACCINE (COVID19)
VAERS ID: All
Group By: VAERS ID

Did I do something incorrect?

VAERS: Death after Covid Vaccine age 6-17

VAERS Death after Covid Vaccine age 6-17 VAERS ID,VAERS ID Code,Adverse Event Description,Lab Data,Current Illness,Adverse Events After Prior Vaccinations,Medications At Time Of Vaccination,History/Allergies 1199455-1,1199455-1,Patient reported difficulty breathing and chest pain; suffered cardi...

docs.google.com

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I searched VAERS and there were 20 deaths listed for:
Query Parameters:
Title: VAERS: Death after Covid Vaccine age 6-17
Age: 6-17 years
Date Died: 2021
Date of Onset: 2021
Date Report Completed: 2021
Date Report Received: 2021
Date Vaccinated: 2021
Event Category: Death
State / Territory: The United States/Territories/Unknown
Vaccine Products: COVID19 VACCINE (COVID19)
VAERS ID: All
Group By: VAERS ID

Did I do something incorrect?

VAERS: Death after Covid Vaccine age 6-17

VAERS Death after Covid Vaccine age 6-17 VAERS ID,VAERS ID Code,Adverse Event Description,Lab Data,Current Illness,Adverse Events After Prior Vaccinations,Medications At Time Of Vaccination,History/Allergies 1199455-1,1199455-1,Patient reported difficulty breathing and chest pain; suffered cardi...

docs.google.com

Yes. Are you being deliberately obtuse?

You do realize you can’t use VAERS for this, right? Do you understand how the system works and what it is for? It says right there in your document that VAERS alone cannot be used to determine causation.

What number of deaths would you expect for children in a given window of time after vaccination? (Should be able to calculate this from pediatric death rates in 12-17 age group and scale by percent of that population vaccinated and the time window you choose.) Etc.

Think!

 

[Terminator857]

Any significant vaccine adverse events, by law, must be reported by health professionals (and false reporting is punishable by loss of license and/or imprisonment - so all healthcare professionals take this VERY seriously):

COVID-19 Vaccination

COVID-19 vaccines protect against COVID-19. Get safety info and more.

www.cdc.gov

You can search the database (VAERS) as it is publicly accessible.

As of Oct 5th, there were ZERO total deaths attributable to the vaccine in kids 18 and under:

A higher death rate from vaccines than COVID-19 for kids? No

Reacting to news that California will eventually require COVID-19 vaccinations for schoolchildren, a Twitter user claime

www.politifact.com

Alan is asking if you are being deliberately obtuse?
Alan is saying we don't have any "confirmed" directly attributed deaths, so the number is zero. I do think that is very obtuse.

 

[bkp_duke]

Alan is right, you are wrong.

VAERS is a reporting system, not a validation system. So there were 20 events that were reported around the time of death. VAERS can be reported by anyone, including family members. Only investigated and then associated deaths would be valid.

In the past, anti-vaxxers have abused the system by filling it up with reports like "my son got vaccinated 6 months ago against measles, now he has a cold and I think it is because of the vaccine". Sadly, because of the way it is setup, that cannot be prevented, since these individuals are not medical professionals (only the law covers us MD's and RN's making false reports to VAERS).

 

[Terminator857]

Alan is right, you are wrong.

You are wrong in stating that I'm wrong. I only stated that I searched VAERS as you suggested and the result was 20 deaths and asked if I did something incorrect. Please don't spread lies on the internet.

 

[bkp_duke]

Alan is asking if you are being deliberately obtuse?
Alan is saying we don't have any "confirmed" directly attributed deaths, so the number is zero. I do think that is very obtuse.

Let me ask you this: do you like money? Who doesn't, right? What's not to like?

So, let's say someone REALLY in the know, came to you with a life-altering stock tip. Say this person was a super-insider, like say a Wall St. pro or an executive in a company about to go public. They tell you "I'm not saying to buy this stock, but (wink wink) you should look at it". Two weeks later the stock is up 100X, you didn't buy, and you feel like an idiot. You would feel like you missed the opportunity of a lifetime.


Now, how does this relate to vaccines? Well, Drs. are "super-insiders" in this case. The population of Drs. are 98% vaccinated. They KNOW the science behind the vaccines, they understand it. They make sure their families understand it and are vaccinated.

The DEATH and other adverse event rates among doctors is NOT HIGHER than a placebo group when it comes to getting the vaccine. The negative consequences are pretty much . . . a sore arm or a day of fatigue.

Doctors are the inside info guys on the vaccine, but instead of hoarding the info they are sharing it freely.

There is NO ARGUMENT you can make about being unvaccinated that is going to provide stronger evidence than the above. ZERO, none. Goose egg.

 

[bkp_duke]

You are wrong in stating that I'm wrong. I only stated that I searched VAERS as you suggested and the result was 20 deaths and asked if I did something incorrect. Please don't spread lies on the internet.

And to the ignore bin with you.

I give stupid people one chance to come to rational thought. You have used that up, and then some.