Coronavirus

[JRP3]

Why is no one listening to Trump? He wanted to close the borders weeks years ago!

Fixed.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I've been trying to wrap my head around why this pandemic has captured society so much more than previous ones.

Is it possible that the media interconnected algorithms are just that good and far more ingrained than we thought? We all know how the "business news" acts as an amplifier for investors talking points, and we've even seen it leech its way into "regular media".

If all the algos were teetering on selling anyway, wouldn't a massive disruption in oil and a potential pandemic incentivize the spread of negative sentiment to manufacture a buying opportunity?

If I'm a computer, that's sure as hell what I'd do.

I noticed my Facebook feed today was filled with perfectly rational people sharing apocalyptic articles from mostly business audienced media outlets. Google anything about coronavirus and HALF the results are Fortune/Business Insider/ect...

Unless this view is perhaps curated for me?

 

[adiggs]

Are you kidding? Why is no one listening to Trump?

I had no problem seeing that as sarcasm.

I thought it was well done too, and totally consistent with Trump's pattern of throwing everybody around him under the bus. It kinda looks like Pence is the next big target to go under. It's sort of a convenient / useful time too, as the opportunities to rid one of their VP are kind of limited.

 

[dfwatt]

I had no problem seeing that as sarcasm.

I thought it was well done too, and totally consistent with Trump's pattern of throwing everybody around him under the bus. It kinda looks like Pence is the next big target to go under. It's sort of a convenient / useful time too, as the opportunities to rid one of their VP are kind of limited.

A lot of Trumpers actually wouldn't see it as remotely sarcastic but as a fair statement.

Additional edited add-on point- Pence is such a good sycophant that I don't think Trump can afford to lose him.

 

[cucubits]

Why is no one listening to Trump? He wanted to close the borders weeks ago! Pence is just blowing this, I hope Trump dumps him before its too late!

With he sheer number of times this clown has been saying insane things, even if some will randomly make sense, it'll be completely warranted to still not take him seriously.

Remember when a little while ago he was saying about how the US already has ready to use beautiful Covid-19 test kits? ...which was a straight up lie.

 

[EVNow]

This is what apparently was shown to Inslee. This assumes 1,000 infections in Seattle area. Looks like at a minimum we need 50% reduction in contacts to keep active infections below 2,000.

There are models that can tell what steps would reduce contacts by what % (we don't have what WA state has for models). But we can get an idea by looking at some of the publicly available stats.

​

 

[Matias]

Question?
How many medical staff here don't expect to catch covid19?

I’m a general practitioner, who sees approximately 20 patients in a day. I will probably get it.

 

[Dr. J]

Got any proof for that? From what I’ve read, it was too many regulations stifling the production and distribution of test kits. The main one was a federal regulation prohibiting the use of non FCC approved test kits. That rule has recently been rescinded.

"What you have read" is not quite the full story. If you can believe the NYT, here's the rest of the story.

Source: ‘It’s Just Everywhere Already’: How Delays in Testing Set Back the U.S. Coronavirus Response

As Washington State debated with the federal officials over what to do, the C.D.C. confronted the daunting task of testing more widely for the coronavirus.

The C.D.C. had designed its own test as it typically does during an outbreak. Several other countries also developed their own tests.

But when the C.D.C. shipped test kits to public labs across the country, some local health officials began reporting that the test was producing invalid results.

The C.D.C. promised that replacement kits would be distributed within days, but the problem stretched on for over two weeks. Only five state laboratories were able to test in that period. Washington and New York were not among them.

By Feb. 24, as new cases of the virus began popping up in the United States, the state labs were growing frantic.

The Association of Public Health Laboratories made what it called an “extraordinary and rare request” of Dr. Stephen Hahn, the commissioner of the F.D.A., asking him to use his discretion to allow state and local public health laboratories to create their own tests for the virus.

“We are now many weeks into the response with still no diagnostic or surveillance test available outside of C.D.C. for the vast majority of our member laboratories,” Scott Becker, the chief executive of the association, wrote in a letter to Dr. Hahn.

Dr. Hahn responded two days later, saying in a letter that “false diagnostic test results can lead to significant adverse public health consequences” and that the laboratories were welcome to submit their own tests for emergency authorization.

But the approval process for laboratory-developed tests was proving onerous. Private and university clinical laboratories, which typically have the latitude to develop their own tests, were frustrated about the speed of the F.D.A. as they prepared applications for emergency approvals from the agency for their coronavirus tests.

Etc., etc. more bungling, more delays, more infections, more deaths.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm not sure if I should name-and-shame a company that is still not GETTING IT and refuses to let their workers WFH. worse yet, they structure their workplace to be tables end-to-end with people sitting far too close to each other.

what is the proper thing for this forum? keep the company name quiet or name them? the only reason I'd name them is to try to get them to change their behavior, for the better, during these critical times.

should I or not? its a name everyone will know and its car related.

Just use the knowledge you gained when getting your medical degree and PhD in virology.

 

[X-pilot]

The responsibility for this disaster in the making is squarely on Trump's shoulders. His administration has taken no effective action on testing, preparedness, masks, social distancing or anything else that has any chance of being effective.

Action was and is needed on the federal level because they have the resources plus people travel across state lines all the time. One state taking action - while helpful - cannot solve the whole problem.

Ah, only a "new world government" could handle the crisis...

 

[marvinat0rz]

Dunno if someone posted this yet, but Norway just called it. Strict quarantine measures in effect for 14 days, but likely extended. Strictest social control measures in place ever in national history, during times of peace.

All childcare, schools and universities closed. All sports games and other gatherings banned. All restaurants and food serving places are required to keep >1 meter distance between people, or close. All swimming pools, personal service businesses such as hairdressers & spas, all gyms closed. All employees of non-critical infrastructure strongly recommended to work from home, or stay away from work. Critical infrastructure workers (hospitals, power, utilities, food distribution) will have childcare provided.

Mandatory quarantine for 14 days after all travel outside the Nordics. Royal family already put in quarantine due to this rule, due to their recent international travel. Self-quarantine very strongly advised for anyone who shows any symptoms of respiratory infection of any type, or for anyone exposed to a confirmed Covid-19 patient. Everyone is asked to display solidarity and comply with measures, to protect the elderly and at-risk groups.

Denmark put in the same measures yesterday, which you've probably already seen in the news. Me, most of my colleagues and most of my friends have been working from home from today, and will do so indefinitely. Reassessing in two weeks when new numbers of sick are available.

 

[SageBrush]

That would be a huge turnabout if true. It's just one study, but I'll be watching for how it gets reviewed by other scientists.

It's also possible that the disease - like other cold and flu viruses before it - is slowly being selected for strains that while milder, are also better at transmitting without causing their host noticeable symptoms.

It is a math model, and while I in general am a fan of math, this is GIGO

 

[dfwatt]

This is my beef with that study, and I may turn out to be wrong, but nothing presented there is actually HARD DATA. It's a statistics paper and the crux of their analysis is a regression calculation. They literally plotted a trend line and make a very large leap in their conclusion based upon that line.

Given the prevalence of this virus, someone should be able to find a group of people that test positive for viral RNA, but have no symptoms. If that is found and tracked, THAT would be the gold standard to prove (or disprove) asymptomatic shedding.

Understood and agreed on all basic points but don't you think that the very short interval suggests particularly when combined with the incubation.period data that this may be contagious at the late pre-symptomatic stages? And of course defining pre-symptomatic is a little bit tricky because often times people have very slight prodromal symptoms before they become febrile and develop significant cough . I defer to your greater expertise in this but it certainly is scary to have such a short transmission interval.

 

[Tslynk67]

Looks like I’ll be teleworking for a few weeks as all “non-critical” European Commission staff are ordered to work from home.

And I heard Belgium might be going lockdown, so started with my panic buying!

 

[Cosmacelf]

I've been trying to wrap my head around why this pandemic has captured society so much more than previous ones.

Is it possible that the media interconnected algorithms are just that good and far more ingrained than we thought? We all know how the "business news" acts as an amplifier for investors talking points, and we've even seen it leech its way into "regular media".

If all the algos were teetering on selling anyway, wouldn't a massive disruption in oil and a potential pandemic incentivize the spread of negative sentiment to manufacture a buying opportunity?

If I'm a computer, that's sure as hell what I'd do.

I noticed my Facebook feed today was filled with perfectly rational people sharing apocalyptic articles from mostly business audienced media outlets. Google anything about coronavirus and HALF the results are Fortune/Business Insider/ect...

Unless this view is perhaps curated for me?

The reason is simple. It is far more dangerous than other ones. Other pandemics didn't overwhelm hospitals like this one is doing, nor did they spread as far and as fast.

 

[theschnell]

So this thread has made me some money (short Toyota via puts) and its time I give back a little with some info.

I live in Georgia. We have 31 cases total in Georgia currently, most in the Atlanta area, some a little further north and elsewhere. The point of my post is that I'm finally starting to see some responsible response to this issue. My church is seriously considering canceling services and going to online only. As of even two days ago this would have been considered crazy, and now it has been presented to the board and likely to pass.

Secondly, a local private college is closing its campus for the remainder of the school year, with all classes online, and everyone in the dorm required to go home.

These are both institutions that literally a handful of days ago would never even have thought it possible that they would be doing this so soon, but they are. Which means responsible adults are starting to come out of the woodwork and make the right decisions to protect everyone around them.

This means that perhaps the virus will be contained sooner rather than later and the market will not be hit as hard longer term as I feared, despite the complete incompetence in the Whitehouse as demonstrated by last nights address to the nation.

 

[Cosmacelf]

"What you have read" is not quite the full story. If you can believe the NYT, here's the rest of the story.

Source: ‘It’s Just Everywhere Already’: How Delays in Testing Set Back the U.S. Coronavirus Response

As Washington State debated with the federal officials over what to do, the C.D.C. confronted the daunting task of testing more widely for the coronavirus.

The C.D.C. had designed its own test as it typically does during an outbreak. Several other countries also developed their own tests.

But when the C.D.C. shipped test kits to public labs across the country, some local health officials began reporting that the test was producing invalid results.

The C.D.C. promised that replacement kits would be distributed within days, but the problem stretched on for over two weeks. Only five state laboratories were able to test in that period. Washington and New York were not among them.

By Feb. 24, as new cases of the virus began popping up in the United States, the state labs were growing frantic.

The Association of Public Health Laboratories made what it called an “extraordinary and rare request” of Dr. Stephen Hahn, the commissioner of the F.D.A., asking him to use his discretion to allow state and local public health laboratories to create their own tests for the virus.

“We are now many weeks into the response with still no diagnostic or surveillance test available outside of C.D.C. for the vast majority of our member laboratories,” Scott Becker, the chief executive of the association, wrote in a letter to Dr. Hahn.

Dr. Hahn responded two days later, saying in a letter that “false diagnostic test results can lead to significant adverse public health consequences” and that the laboratories were welcome to submit their own tests for emergency authorization.

But the approval process for laboratory-developed tests was proving onerous. Private and university clinical laboratories, which typically have the latitude to develop their own tests, were frustrated about the speed of the F.D.A. as they prepared applications for emergency approvals from the agency for their coronavirus tests.

Etc., etc. more bungling, more delays, more infections, more deaths.

That NYT story is consistent with what I said about federal regulations stifling test kit availability. The rules required the FDA to approve lab developed tests. When the Trump admin realized this was a roadblock, they rescinded that rule. Did they realize it fast enough? No, of course not. But my point is that too much federal regulation was the problem in this instance.

 

[Causalien]

Looks like I’ll be teleworking for a few weeks as all “non-critical” European Commission staff are ordered to work from home.

And I heard Belgium might be going lockdown, so started with my panic buying!

View attachment 520905

Someone got their priority right.

Mental health and Keeping sane in mandatory quarantine is important so you don't end up becoming a knife wielding wacko being chased by police.

I am surprised, I don't see empty shelves of beer being posted online out of all this frenzy.

 

[Glamisduner]

Looks like I’ll be teleworking for a few weeks as all “non-critical” European Commission staff are ordered to work from home.

And I heard Belgium might be going lockdown, so started with my panic buying!

View attachment 520905

If I get sick and it's not horrific, I'll probably ended up brewing a Belgian duddble But I already have a bunch of kegs ready to be tapped if the water becomes less safe to drink

 

[Cosmacelf]

Here's the video of the Utah Jazz player goofing about the virus two days ago. Yesterday he was diagnosed with the virus. Way to go champ.