Coronavirus

[VValleyEV]

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all else being equal (obviously false) Japan and Korea have much better chance of not overwhelming their hospital bed count
next is Germany Austria Poland are also looking good.

I keep reading that what they run short on is not regular beds per se but ICU space. Of course beds are movable, but does that pose a further constraint - the need to isolate from the rest of the patients plus the extra stuff you need in an ICU?

 

[linux-works]

something to keep tom hanks company, from hospital staff:

lol

 

[EVNow]

Interesting that some posts in this thread highlight what we can learn from Taiwan. They were the first country to ban travel from China on January 27. Four days later on January 31 Trump bans travel from China and he's labeled a xenophobe.

Its easy to ban - but enforcing quarantine requires atleast minimally effective governance . (like send health workers to interact with Diamond Princess patients without protective gear or the first covid case in Seattle who had 60+ contacts).

Any US citizen who has traveled in China will undergo health screening upon entry into the country and will be asked to self-quarantine for 14 days. US citizens who have traveled to Hubei province, where the virus originated, will be held under mandatory quarantine for 14 days after they return to the US.​

 

[EVNow]

I keep reading that what they run short on is not regular beds per se but ICU space. Of course beds are movable, but does that pose a further constraint - the need to isolate from the rest of the patients plus the extra stuff you need in an ICU?

Our hospitals run at or above capacity even during normal flu season. So, we'll run into all kinds of limits like ventilators, doctors, nurses, PPEs etc etc

But ventilators seems to be the hard limit. When seriously ill, even people in their 20s need ventilators.

 

[Paracelsus]

 

[willow_hiller]

Don't really want to wade into the pre-symptomatic transmission debate here, but The Guardian just described a pretty compelling study that concluded the majority of transmission comes from those who are not showing symptoms: Coronavirus: most infections spread by people yet to show symptoms – scientists

"An analysis of infections in Singapore and Tianjin in China revealed that two-thirds and three-quarters of people respectively appear to have caught it from others who were incubating the virus but still symptom-free."

 

[dfwatt]

There is one conspiracy theory I never entertained.
Assuming the government knew of the severity of this virus and assuming that they are all sociopath who only cares about their wealth and their buddies.

Delaying the testing allows them all to exit the market.

I really hope this is not it. But it make sense. If we assume everyone is smart and competent.

What if there's just one lead sociopath, the chief executive who has surrounded himself with a bunch of sycophants. Further if we assume that the lead sociopath is incompetent and that the sycophants although they may be somewhat less incompetent than the president are not in a position to push back against his nonsense? I don't think it takes rocket science with this scenario to generate exactly the train of consequences and nonsense that we've seen so far.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The responsibility for this disaster in the making is squarely on Trump's shoulders. His administration has taken no effective action on testing, preparedness, masks, social distancing or anything else that has any chance of being effective.

Action was and is needed on the federal level because they have the resources plus people travel across state lines all the time. One state taking action - while helpful - cannot solve the whole problem.

This is EXACTLY what we should do in an emergency. Point fingers and squabble. Bravo!

 

[adiggs]

Belgium will limit corona virus tests to hospitalized patients due to lack of testing capacity.
So our numbers will go up less dramatically.
85 new cases today adding to the 314 of yesterday. 34 new cases in a single nursing home, with a lot of residents in the nursing home showing symptoms.

Ahh! You're going for the US response. We'll let you know how that works for us (or vice versa).

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

More news from Denmark:

• "Anti-cyclical emergency buffer" just released, in full. Banks will be allowed to lend out 200.000.000.000 DKR more than usually allowed. Interest rate will be zero. Intended Goal: To support struggling businesses.
• Extended sick-leave for all employees infected with corona or in quarantine: This mean the employers can get wages refunded from the danish state from sick day 1. (For high wages - not a full refund. But substantial for low and medium wages)
• Private sector initiatives: Temporary easement of labor-market overall contracted conditions (see not). This will allow work-sharing and thus decreased working hours and also mandatory vacation. Also loosening of rules on what kinds of labor people are allowed to do. Clear intent: To decrease number of people being fired.

• Parliament sent home. Will be recalled for critical voting. But - only 99 members will be allowed entry at any given time

Also this very unusual message from the Ministry of Finance: National finances will suffer. National expenses will exceed income for some time to come. Minister of finance: "This is the right thing to do."
Context:
Danish economic tradition has since early 1980's been focused on a) export surplus and b) national budget surplus and c) defending the danish "kronen"/currency.
This 3-part near-dogma has now been suspended, breaking a near 40 year strong tradition across a very broad political spectrum.

Interpretation: This is beyond crisis. Denmark is in national emergency mode.

Persons afflicted by corona:

• Infected: 615
• Deaths: zero
• In Critical condition: 2
• In quarantine: not sure - approx 1400

Note:
According to danish 'flexicurity' model, the labor-market is heavily regulated not by law, but by two-party negotiations between employer sector wide organizations and corresponding union sector-wide representation. However, government reserves the right to intervene when such intervention is deemed in the national interest. *This* is an intervention.
I am not sure a law is needed here - a simple talk with leading organizations will suffice.
However, due to the seriousness of the situation, should employees go on strike or should employers lock-out employees a law will no doubt swiftly be implemented.

 

[linux-works]

This is EXACTLY what we should do in an emergency. Point fingers and squabble. Bravo!

what we should do is remove him in november. people have very short memories, the guy is a trickster and will do anything to save himself.

we're hoping that people will finally realize the danger of that buffoon and remove him ASAP.

this needs constant attention because, well, his followers are rather thick headed and need it pounded into their skulls.

lives are at risk. the gloves come off (oops, well, not the blue nitrile ones, at least!)

 

[KarenRei]

Don't really want to wade into the pre-symptomatic transmission debate here, but The Guardian just described a pretty compelling study that concluded the majority of transmission comes from those who are not showing symptoms: Coronavirus: most infections spread by people yet to show symptoms – scientists

"An analysis of infections in Singapore and Tianjin in China revealed that two-thirds and three-quarters of people respectively appear to have caught it from others who were incubating the virus but still symptom-free."

That would be a huge turnabout if true. It's just one study, but I'll be watching for how it gets reviewed by other scientists.

It's also possible that the disease - like other cold and flu viruses before it - is slowly being selected for strains that while milder, are also better at transmitting without causing their host noticeable symptoms.

 

[CyMan]

I think I might have the distinction of being the first COVID-19 positive member of TMC. My wife is a provider in Kirkland WA, and was exposed at work. She came down with symptoms Sunday evening, and I came down with almost the exact same symptoms a few hours later. We were only able to get her tested, because she is a health care worker. Normal people can not get tested unless they are bad enough to be hospitalized. Her results came in this morning and she was a "strong positive." We both are miserable, but so far our symptoms are on the mild end of the spectrum. It is very scary. Hopefully our symptoms will remain mild. We also know a number of other health workers who have been infected and had much, much worse times of it, than we have so far. This is definitely not just another flu. We are extremely afraid for ourselves, our parents, our community, and the economy.

Hey Snap - I am really saddened to read your post. I would be petrified if/when it's my turn. I can't offer you any advice on what to do as I am not medically trained in any way but I can say (as I have family in Iran) that this is a really dangerous epidemic. Anybody on this chat site who thinks otherwise really needs to start brushing up on their science knowledge. This damned thing has ripped through Iran and according to my sources over there - there are thousands dead and hundreds of thousands infected. The Gov has hushed it all up because they have no clue what to do. Some rumours even say that the minister of health who went down with it 2 weeks ago is dead. Unfortunately US and UK Governments are doing absolutely NOTHING to protect people - anyone who is clear of symptoms needs to take serious precautions to protect themselves because Gov is doing nothing for us - those who are ill..... well I just don't know what to say. I hope that you both make it through - stay positive please

 

[bkp_duke]

I’ve gone full tin foil hat:

Us didn’t test because it wanted a US company, specifically Gilead Sciences, to sell the test. Greed will kill Americans.

Simultaneously, this will be the reason Social Security is finally killed after decades of effort. “It will be the only way to save the economy”.

We are being pillaged.

Wrong. Gilead doesn't make testing kits.

It makes the potential small molecule inhibitor that might be a treatment (BIG might there).

 

[Causalien]

Interesting that some posts in this thread highlight what we can learn from Taiwan. They were the first country to ban travel from China on January 27. Four days later on January 31 Trump bans travel from China and he's labeled a xenophobe.

Just my opinion. Because they were excluded from WHO, they had to fly alone and thus operate outside the political jerry-mangling that happened at the beginning of the pandemic. So their decisions are more medical based than political motivated.

BUT.... Since most nations have gone waay beyond Taiwan's infected count, I do not think their actions can be applied to nations seeing exponential increase. China's draconian model might be better suited for that whereas Taiwan's model is better suited for countries with no to low imported infected.

 

[bkp_duke]

Don't really want to wade into the pre-symptomatic transmission debate here, but The Guardian just described a pretty compelling study that concluded the majority of transmission comes from those who are not showing symptoms: Coronavirus: most infections spread by people yet to show symptoms – scientists

"An analysis of infections in Singapore and Tianjin in China revealed that two-thirds and three-quarters of people respectively appear to have caught it from others who were incubating the virus but still symptom-free."

This is my beef with that study, and I may turn out to be wrong, but nothing presented there is actually HARD DATA. It's a statistics paper and the crux of their analysis is a regression calculation. They literally plotted a trend line and make a very large leap in their conclusion based upon that line.

Given the prevalence of this virus, someone should be able to find a group of people that test positive for viral RNA, but have no symptoms. If that is found and tracked, THAT would be the gold standard to prove (or disprove) asymptomatic shedding.

 

[bkp_duke]

This study scares the crap out of me, and it appears to be pretty rigorous and properly peer reviewed:
https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext

Basically, the virus can survive (in sufficient numbers to infect) in the air for 3 hours, and on surfaces for 3 days (varies by the type of surface).

That's a really big problem.

 

[MassPlay]

Why is no one listening to Trump? He wanted to close the borders weeks ago! Pence is just blowing this, I hope Trump dumps him before its too late!

 

[dfwatt]

Why is no one listening to Trump? He wanted to close the borders weeks ago! Pence is just blowing this, I hope Trump dumps him before its too late!

Are you kidding? Why is no one listening to Trump? Is that really a serious question on a website dedicated to sustainable energy and transportation? The stable genius who believes that climate change and the coronavirus pandemic are both hoaxes started by the Chinese? Who can't read except paraphasically from a teleprompter? Who thinks Kansas City is in Kansas? Who just stated publicly recently that the virus is going to go from 15 cases to zero quickly? Who believes that the virus will disappear once the weather gets warmer? Who has decided that CDC internal communication should be deemed classified? Classifying Public Health Communications? What are you smoking?

You are aware that Community transmission is the primary mode of transmission in this country at this point not people coming from abroad who are infected? Right? You understand that the only way to disrupt transmission chains is rigorous testing, strict quarantining and isolating of COVID 19 positive individuals, social distancing, and other epidemiologically informed measures - as demonstrated by the Chinese and the South Koreans who have managed to get themselves out of the exponential phase of transmission. Which is most certainly where we are right now.

Those are of course precisely the epidemiologically informed measures that Trump has pretty much dismissed and undermined, recommending that people maybe can go to work if they're sick?

So again are you kidding?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

He's not kidding, he's a robot..