bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Read the leaked CDC internal presentation here:
Thank you. Very informative, and in line with what I would expect as vaccination rates climb.
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Read the leaked CDC internal presentation here:
1) Yeah the thing about 'small percentage of cases is vaccinated people' was always so stupid! We absolutely want 100% of cases to be in vaccinated individuals (that would indicate we are doing the best we can possibly do with vaccination) and I'm not sure how we got fixated on this idea that we want a small % of cases to be vaccinated... They'll have a lot of communication work to do to resolve that simple issue unfortunately.Read the leaked CDC internal presentation here:
And given that the source is more likely to be unvaccinated, I doubt you can get the source to mask up without enforcement (which isn't likely to happen either).I would like to know the source of these, but this jives with what I was taught (WAY back when in school) regarding effectiveness.
Highlighted in red - it's more effective to prevent spread if you can get the source to mask up, vs. everyone else.
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I'd like a source too. I suspect since they're model assumptions they are a bit arbitrary and a bit conservative.I would like to know the source of these, but this jives with what I was taught (WAY back when in school) regarding effectiveness.
I would like to know the source of these, but this jives with what I was taught (WAY back when in school) regarding effectiveness.
Highlighted in red - it's more effective to prevent spread if you can get the source to mask up, vs. everyone else.
The R0 of chickenpox is often said to be 10-12.
Read the leaked CDC internal presentation here:
Yes, very few (hardly any) of the various disease vaccines entirely prevent infection (so-called sterilizing immunity) as I understand it.I was just about to post the same article. The CDC document you linked has the chikenpox with an R0 of about 8. They estimate delta to be between 5 and 9 and slightly more deadly than original COVID, but not much. It's still much less deadly than smallpox, SARS, polio, Spanish flu, Bird flu, and Ebola.
I think the idea in much of the public's mind about vaccines is that they are like a fortress wall, nothing gets in. Vaccines (and the immune system) work more like traps in an Indian Jones movie. The virus gets in, but there are multiple lines of defense out to kill it that it has to breach before you're going to get sick. Instead of a fortress wall, it's more like a network of trenches full of soldiers with machine guns and rifles with bayonets. The Delta variant has some tanks aiding the assault which are tougher to take out, but for most people the trenchlines hold. Only a relative few vaccinated people end up having the trenches breached.
Being vaccinated is like France 1917. Unvaccinated is like Kuwait 1991.
We should be doing a better job of educating the public on this sort of thing so people know what to expect.
Kind of like “don’t come to work if you’re sick” and “don’t take your sick kids to school.”Highlighted in red - it's more effective to prevent spread if you can get the source to mask up, vs. everyone else.
Yes, very few (hardly any) of the various disease vaccines entirely prevent infection (so-called sterilizing immunity) as I understand it.
Interesting discussion going on here. I wanted to post an update on my wife and document a few things (someone here might find them useful). She's at, I'd say, around 95% recovered after three weeks since her initial exposure.
Saturday 07/10: what we think was her initial exposure to the virus
Sunday: no symptoms
Monday: no symptoms
Tuesday: some sneezing (unusual for her but we'd had a ton of rain and mildew/mold was everywhere)
Wednesday: minor sneezing
Thursday: no sneezing, felt fine
Friday: went to work, different symptoms (fatigue, aches and pains) rapidly progressed and she left around noon (went straight to bed)
Saturday: in bed the whole day, wiped out, bad headache (I took her to CVS for a test)
Sunday: started losing her senses of taste and smell, headache
Monday: taste and smell totally gone
At three weeks, the remaining symptoms are, in order of severity: loss of taste+smell, occasional headaches, and more easily fatigued. The loss of taste+smell is still significant. She can barely taste anything. We had some buffalo wings the other day that made my head sweat and she couldn't taste anything. She says it's gradually improving, so that's good.
I still don't understand why I wasn't infected (at least, to a detectable degree). I was massively exposed multiple times during that week. I didn't isolate her from me at all (e.g. we slept in the same bed every night with the exception of one). We had the same vaccine, Pfizer, back in March/April. We went together, so it was the exact same time and batch. It's my understanding that the mRNA vaccines are pretty "narrow" which means our immune systems were sensitized to the same narrow irritant.
Yes it is linked above in one of the tweets, it is from the study from the Israeli hospital system.saw an article yesterday, sorry no time this AM to dig it up, but it was from NEJM I believe and it was a reasonably well-run study looking at breakthrough infections in healthcare works
We’ll see about that Massachusetts data…
And here it is….
Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Infections, including COVID-19 ...
This report describes COVID-19 outbreaks associated with ...www.cdc.gov
Yes, there seemed to be an outsized representation of J&J among the infected relative to the general population. Also, 3 out of the 5 hospitalized patients were J&J and the other fully vaccinated patient had received Pfizer.It’s too bad they did not break out the Ct values by vaccination type. There was a very large proportion of J&J here - ~16%.
What is the source for these numbers that are said to be from yesterday?As of yesterday in northern CA, plus Los Angeles Co. Doesn’t specify % that are breakthrough, but still interesting info.
Yellow highlight shows counties that have indoor mask requirements.
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