China / Taiwan discussion

[voyager]

If there is one thing of a massively devastating influence on Tesla stock, it is the gradually escalating China vs Taiwan situation.
If President Xi decides to invade Taiwan, the West will be forced to at least retaliate economically, with all sorts of trade sanctions.
Western OEMs in China, like Tesla and BMW, can kiss their investments goodbye. Probably forever. That Xi is of no influence
to Putin's Ukraine plans, ought to say enough...

China-Taiwan: Beijing speeding up plans for unification, Blinken says

The US Secretary of State said China could employ 'forceful means' to achieve its objective.

www.bbc.com

 

[Tam]

How will the chip restriction affect Tesla electronic components?

https://www.fierceelectronics.com/electronics/eyes-focus-chinas-response-new-us-trade-curbs-chips-and-tools

Of course it hurts China severely.

In the short term, it also hurts US companies (Intel, nVidia...) who can't sell their advanced chip products and services to China.

China does not need to invade Taiwan. It can order Taiwan chip companies to stop doing business with black listed countries.

The order can be executed with economic, communication/internet embargo; and this time, "Musk said China has sought assurances that he would not offer the Starlink internet service of his SpaceX rocket company there."

Musk offers proposal on China-Taiwan tensions, after Russia-Ukraine plan

The billionaire suggested that tensions between Beijing and Taipei could be resolved by handing over some control of Taiwan to China.

www.japantimes.co.jp

 

[Daniel in SD]

China does not need to invade Taiwan. It can order Taiwan chip companies to stop doing business with black listed countries.

Well, yes if Taiwan surrenders their sovereignty then there is no need for an invasion. Doesn’t seem likely though.

 

[Tam]

Well, yes if Taiwan surrenders their sovereignty then there is no need for an invasion. Doesn’t seem likely though.

No need to surrender. As a sovereign government it wants the label "Taiwan or ROC Republic of China." Taiwan prohibits the label "Taiwan, China or Chinese Taiwan" as the location of manufacturing.

However, it is still complying with Beijing's order and labeling accordingly even against Taiwan's law:

Apple reportedly warned suppliers not to use 'made in Taiwan' labels on products to avoid angering China following Nancy Pelosi's visit

Apple said suppliers should avoid identifying Taiwan as independent of China to side-step possible supply chain disruption from Chinese scrutiny.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[STS-134]

No need to surrender. As a sovereign government it wants the label "Taiwan or ROC Republic of China." Taiwan prohibits the label "Taiwan, China or Chinese Taiwan" as the location of manufacturing.

However, it is still complying with Beijing's order and labeling accordingly even against Taiwan's law:

Apple reportedly warned suppliers not to use 'made in Taiwan' labels on products to avoid angering China following Nancy Pelosi's visit

Apple said suppliers should avoid identifying Taiwan as independent of China to side-step possible supply chain disruption from Chinese scrutiny.

www.businessinsider.com

They should just do what United Airlines did and use the "zero China policy". List Taiwan (the province) or the special municipality of the Republic of China only, if something is made in the ROC, which is the location according to the ROC constitution. List the province, autonomous region, municipality, or special administrative region of the People's Republic of China only, if something is made in the PRC. So something made by Foxconn in Shenzhen gets "Made in Guangdong" printed on it, without any reference to PRC or ROC.

 

[Tam]

...If President Xi decides to invade Taiwan...

From the press, the readers may think China has been the aggressor and the military threat to the US and the world.

After the Vietnam war, the US participated in numerous wars: Invasion of Grenada, invasion of the Panama, invasion of Afghanistan, invasion of Iraq and covert operations for regime change in Syria, Lybia, and Venezuela...

In the same period, the only Chinese aggression was the invasion of Vietnam in 1979 to retaliate against Vietnam's invasion of Cambodia. The peace settlement was quickly reached, with Vietnam giving up the long historical prized land of Ải Nam Quan at the border.

The press made China a scary aggressor, and the US had to start an economic war with tariffs and even tried to disband TikTok.

It even ordered Canada to imprison the CFO of Huawei and in exchange, we got a prisoner exchange: 1 Chinese for 2 Canadians and 2 Americans.

Remember, the US has honored the One China policy for years. The US now has a change of heart and blames China as the aggressor.

Imagine humans would agree not to visit mama bear's ground. Then humans would have a change of heart and start visiting mama bear's ground then complain that the bear is the aggressor!

China and US used to be enemies during the Vietnam war. Now that war is over, both the US and China have learned how to peacefully co-exist for many years by respecting the One China policy. In recent years, the US has escalated the tension by going back on that policy.

The world is now interwoven. It's hard to separate ourselves from China without hurting ourselves.

Thus, the US must reverse the escalation and continue the bilateral cooperation as before.

 

[Daniel in SD]

From the press, the readers may think China has been the aggressor and the military threat to the US and the world.

After the Vietnam war, the US participated in numerous wars: Invasion of Grenada, invasion of the Panama, invasion of Afghanistan, invasion of Iraq and covert operations for regime change in Syria, Lybia, and Venezuela...

In the same period, the only Chinese aggression was the invasion of Vietnam in 1979 to retaliate against Vietnam's invasion of Cambodia. The peace settlement was quickly reached, with Vietnam giving up the long historical prized land of Ải Nam Quan at the border.

The press made China a scary aggressor, and the US had to start an economic war with tariffs and even tried to disband TikTok.

It even ordered Canada to imprison the CFO of Huawei and in exchange, we got a prisoner exchange: 1 Chinese for 2 Canadians and 2 Americans.

Remember, the US has honored the One China policy for years. The US now has a change of heart and blames China as the aggressor.

Imagine humans would agree not to visit mama bear's ground. Then humans would have a change of heart and start visiting mama bear's ground then complain that the bear is the aggressor!

China and US used to be enemies during the Vietnam war. Now that war is over, both the US and China have learned how to peacefully co-exist for many years by respecting the One China policy. In recent years, the US has escalated the tension by going back on that policy.

The world is now interwoven. It's hard to separate ourselves from China without hurting ourselves.

Thus, the US must reverse the escalation and continue the bilateral cooperation as before.

So, if the people of Taiwan want political independence from mainland China what should they do?

 

[STS-134]

It even ordered Canada to imprison the CFO of Huawei and in exchange, we got a prisoner exchange: 1 Chinese for 2 Canadians and 2 Americans.

Not even close to the same thing. The Huawei CFO was imprisoned because she violated US laws and was arrested by Canada according to a transparent legal process. The Canadians arrested by the PRC were arrested on trumped up charges.

Remember, the US has honored the One China policy for years. The US now has a change of heart and blames China as the aggressor.

With respect to the ROC, the US only ever acknowledged that Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait maintain that there is One China and that Taiwan is part of China.

"The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States Government does not challenge that position. It reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves."

Note the language there: acknowledges, not approves, and not agrees. Nor did the US ever state which government it sees as the proper one that governs this "One China". The statement also says that "the Chinese" (meaning the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, who are part of the One China), should resolve the issue in a "peaceful settlement". A direct attack on either side by the other would not be a peaceful settlement and at that point, all bets are off.

Imagine humans would agree not to visit mama bear's ground. Then humans would have a change of heart and start visiting mama bear's ground then complain that the bear is the aggressor!

Imagine mama bear going out and trying to build outposts outside of her den (in a place like the South China Sea) so that she can claim those shared areas as her own. At that point, she is the aggressor!

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

From the press, the readers may think China has been the aggressor and the military threat to the US and the world.

After the Vietnam war, the US participated in numerous wars: Invasion of Grenada, invasion of the Panama, invasion of Afghanistan, invasion of Iraq and covert operations for regime change in Syria, Lybia, and Venezuela...

In the same period, the only Chinese aggression was the invasion of Vietnam in 1979 to retaliate against Vietnam's invasion of Cambodia. The peace settlement was quickly reached, with Vietnam giving up the long historical prized land of Ải Nam Quan at the border.

The press made China a scary aggressor, and the US had to start an economic war with tariffs and even tried to disband TikTok.

It even ordered Canada to imprison the CFO of Huawei and in exchange, we got a prisoner exchange: 1 Chinese for 2 Canadians and 2 Americans.

Remember, the US has honored the One China policy for years. The US now has a change of heart and blames China as the aggressor.

Imagine humans would agree not to visit mama bear's ground. Then humans would have a change of heart and start visiting mama bear's ground then complain that the bear is the aggressor!

China and US used to be enemies during the Vietnam war. Now that war is over, both the US and China have learned how to peacefully co-exist for many years by respecting the One China policy. In recent years, the US has escalated the tension by going back on that policy.

The world is now interwoven. It's hard to separate ourselves from China without hurting ourselves.

Thus, the US must reverse the escalation and continue the bilateral cooperation as before.

What the USA and other democracies need to do is to figure out how to remove their dependency on China, Russia and other dictatorships and limit their dependency to each other as much as possible. Hopefully they've finally learned from the COVID pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the operations of the OPEC+ cartel just how damaging those dependencies are.

Note that removing dependency isn't the same as removing trade. You just want to be able to function well even if you need to impose sanctions..

China's aggression hasn't been limited to the Sino-Vietnamese war. For example it's effectively engaged in a border war with India. But largely it's just trying to leverage economic power, for example through the debt traps of Belt and Road.

 

[Kandiru]

And the US could easily impose an oil import embargo on China by having a few carriers stationed at key shipping points.

Doubtful, as Iran and Russia will continue supplying uninterrupted by land.

 

[kabin]

So, if the people of Taiwan want political independence from mainland China what should they do?

About the only rational thing to do is back their bags and move to a country offering political independence. It's more tricky but likewise with Taiwanese companies.

 

[STS-134]

About the only rational thing to do is back their bags and move to a country offering political independence. It's more tricky but likewise with Taiwanese companies.

The ROC already has political independence in the free area, as the PRC has never controlled it.

 

[Tam]

Not even close to the same thing. The Huawei CFO was imprisoned because she violated US laws and was arrested by Canada according to a transparent legal process. The Canadians arrested by the PRC were arrested on trumped up charges...

Some countries don't recognize US laws as their own laws.

However, the US was able to invade Panama and arrested its President. The US was able to disrupt the Presidential flight from Russia to Bolivia, grounded it in Austria and took hostage of the Bolivia President on the trumped up charge that he harbored Edward Snowden which is against the US laws.

The US was the one who broke up the Iran nuclear agreement then dared to order Canada to take hostage of China for the trumped up charges that it created in the first place by breaking up with Iran. The EU never did. China never did.

The world is a dangerous place so it is better to de-escalate rather than escalate more dangers.

The chip restriction is bad for business. It affects China most but also the world too.

 

[Tam]

So, if the people of Taiwan want political independence from mainland China what should they do?

Follow Elon Musk's introduction.

In the wild jungle, weaker animals have little chances to fight back stronger ones.

Taiwan has been able to survive until now, not because it is strong, but because of its diplomatic skills.

It satisfies both the US and China all at the same time.

It appears tough for the US but it obeys Beijing's orders.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Doubtful, as Iran and Russia will continue supplying uninterrupted by land.

There isn’t enough over land transport capacity for that.

 

[STS-134]

Some countries don't recognize US laws as their own laws.

That's not relevant here. US laws do not generally apply in other countries, but US laws apply to statements made to US financial institutions. That's what got her in trouble.

 

[Daniel in SD]

About the only rational thing to do is back their bags and move to a country offering political independence. It's more tricky but likewise with Taiwanese companies.

This is obviously what the Taiwanese people should do if they lose their autonomy. And the US and Europe should make it very clear that should that happen they will do everything they can to encourage that exodus.

Follow Elon Musk's introduction.

In the wild jungle, weaker animals have little chances to fight back stronger ones.

Taiwan has been able to survive until now, not because it is strong, but because of its diplomatic skills.

It satisfies both the US and China all at the same time.

It appears tough for the US but it obeys Beijing's orders.

That's very cryptic. It sounds like you're saying Taiwan should develop nuclear weapons to defend themselves?
Elon Musk says that the way to get what you want...

 

[CLK350]

Interesting notes from someone really knowledgeable about China and the west, Ai Wei Wei. Would appreciate summary and comments

 

[KBF]

It may also be worth noting that China is afraid of multinational corporations having undue influence on government, and from their perspective is struggling to maintain indepence from all foreign control. They have been taken advantage of in the past, with widespread extreme poverty, and this still affects the older generations' worldview. I'm not saying this is right or wrong, but from those I know who are deeply connected to China, this seems to be accurate of their position. They are concerned that Hong Kong and Taiwan are leverage points for the West to influence China and take advantage of them (as they kind of have been historically - though that's an oversimplification).

China's biggest international aggressions haven't been military, but more subtle economic warfare and political influence. Corporate espionage has been rampant, and they have stolen trillions in both tech secrets and other economic data. One quick example from 2010: Former Boeing Engineer Sentenced to Nearly 16 Years in Prison for Stealing Aerospace Secrets for China - I haven't come across as much recently, but I haven't been searching, either.

IIRC, the Huawei conflict was partially about the USA finding backdoors in routers, phones, etc - the crackdown in the last few years was to reduce corporate espionage.

I'm hoping that a diplomatic solution to Taiwan can continue - China is already in economic trouble, and that can lead to unstable decision-making. I'm hoping the Russia situation is bringing sober second thoughts to Xi. But he's also aging and has been mulling over his succession for years. I'm concerned that it looks like he's replacing moderate voices with yes men...

 

[Tam]

That's very cryptic. It sounds like you're saying Taiwan should develop nuclear weapons to defend themselves?
Elon Musk says that the way to get what you want...

Historically, when pro-US Chiang Kai-shek retreated from mainland China and settled in Taiwan, it was pretty much a one party military dictatorial government with martial law for the first 38 years. Any free speech could land people in jail or lose their lives. Any attempt to speak Taiwanese in Taiwan would land people in jail during that time. The government was imported to Taiwan from mainland China and the government wanted to maintain the mainland language, not the language of Taiwan. There were about 200,000 political prisoners and 4,000 executed.

Thus, back to the present, Elon Musk's instruction is straightforward: no nuclear, no war, just like Hong Kong. Macao is another example of becoming just like Hong Kong.

These are his words:

"My recommendation . . . would be to figure out a special administrative zone for Taiwan that is reasonably palatable, probably won't make everyone happy," Musk told the Financial Times in an interview published Friday. "And it's possible, and I think probably, in fact, that they could have an arrangement that's more lenient than Hong Kong."

Hong Kong is a special administrative zone that manages its own politics, although China has cracked down on the country in recent years by passing a national security law that punishes citizens for dissent against Beijing."

Macao (famous for Casinos) was a colony of Portuguese until 1999 next to Hong Kong which was a colony of Great Britain until 1997.

Those 2 former colonies are now part of China, but they have free reign as if they are their own countries (own currencies, own passports...) as long as they do not betray China. They have more freedom than the rest of China, but not as the US does.

The BBC seems to suggest that because Hong Kong is poorer than Macao, so there have been pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong but not the well-to-do Macao.

Macau: China's other 'one country, two systems' region

Macau, known for its casinos, was also returned to China. It has taken a very different path from Hong Kong.

www.bbc.com

Taiwan is not as rich as Macao, either.