China / Taiwan discussion

[Cosmacelf]

The history of Taiwan and Hong Kong matter little to the people living there now. Today, Taiwan is a thriving democracy. China will wreck Taiwan just as they have wrecked Hong Kong if they take it over.

China didn’t clamp down on Hong Kong due to people maligning China. What actually happened is that the puppet government in Hong Kong tried to pass draconian laws that would have (and did) allow China to jail anyone in Hong Kong it wanted to and subject them to Chinese courts. Sure the reason would be due to maligning China, but that can be interpreted as maligning a powerful corrupt local politician. If you can’t criticize your local school board when they go off the rails, you don’t have much of a society. Needless to say, residents didn’t like that and thus protested, then crackdowns, etc. Same exact thing would happen in Taiwan.

This “two systems” rhetoric is nonsense and everyone actually living there knows that.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I just hope the diplomatic solution is to keep the status quo until I’m gone.

Historically, when pro-US Chiang Kai-shek retreated from mainland China and settled in Taiwan, it was pretty much a one party military dictatorial government with martial law for the first 38 years. Any free speech could land people in jail or lose their lives. Any attempt to speak Taiwanese in Taiwan would land people in jail during that time. The government was imported to Taiwan from mainland China and the government wanted to maintain the mainland language, not the language of Taiwan. There were about 200,000 political prisoners and 4,000 executed.

Thus, back to the present, Elon Musk's instruction is straightforward: no nuclear, no war, just like Hong Kong. Macao is another example of becoming just like Hong Kong.

These are his words:

"My recommendation . . . would be to figure out a special administrative zone for Taiwan that is reasonably palatable, probably won't make everyone happy," Musk told the Financial Times in an interview published Friday. "And it's possible, and I think probably, in fact, that they could have an arrangement that's more lenient than Hong Kong."

Hong Kong is a special administrative zone that manages its own politics, although China has cracked down on the country in recent years by passing a national security law that punishes citizens for dissent against Beijing."

Macao (famous for Casinos) was a colony of Portuguese until 1999 next to Hong Kong which was a colony of Great Britain until 1997.

Those 2 former colonies are now part of China, but they have free reign as if they are their own countries (own currencies, own passports...) as long as they do not betray China. They have more freedom than the rest of China, but not as the US does.

The BBC seems to suggest that because Hong Kong is poorer than Macao, so there have been pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong but not the well-to-do Macao.

Macau: China's other 'one country, two systems' region

Macau, known for its casinos, was also returned to China. It has taken a very different path from Hong Kong.

www.bbc.com

Taiwan is not as rich as Macao, either.

I doubt the majority of Taiwanese want to be like Hong Kong. And of course "more lenient than Hong Kong" is not a credible promise given what has happened to Hong Kong.

 

[STS-134]

Historically, when pro-US Chiang Kai-shek retreated from mainland China and settled in Taiwan, it was pretty much a one party military dictatorial government with martial law for the first 38 years. Any free speech could land people in jail or lose their lives. Any attempt to speak Taiwanese in Taiwan would land people in jail during that time. The government was imported to Taiwan from mainland China and the government wanted to maintain the mainland language, not the language of Taiwan. There were about 200,000 political prisoners and 4,000 executed.

Thus, back to the present, Elon Musk's instruction is straightforward: no nuclear, no war, just like Hong Kong. Macao is another example of becoming just like Hong Kong.

These are his words:

"My recommendation . . . would be to figure out a special administrative zone for Taiwan that is reasonably palatable, probably won't make everyone happy," Musk told the Financial Times in an interview published Friday. "And it's possible, and I think probably, in fact, that they could have an arrangement that's more lenient than Hong Kong."

Hong Kong is a special administrative zone that manages its own politics, although China has cracked down on the country in recent years by passing a national security law that punishes citizens for dissent against Beijing."

Macao (famous for Casinos) was a colony of Portuguese until 1999 next to Hong Kong which was a colony of Great Britain until 1997.

Those 2 former colonies are now part of China, but they have free reign as if they are their own countries (own currencies, own passports...) as long as they do not betray China. They have more freedom than the rest of China, but not as the US does.

The BBC seems to suggest that because Hong Kong is poorer than Macao, so there have been pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong but not the well-to-do Macao.

Macau: China's other 'one country, two systems' region

Macau, known for its casinos, was also returned to China. It has taken a very different path from Hong Kong.

www.bbc.com

Taiwan is not as rich as Macao, either.

The only arrangement that might be acceptable to the people of the ROC is reunification under 1C2S with the ROC government in charge of the 1C. If the PRC wanted the ROC to accept the same terms as .hk, then it shouldn't have reneged its promise to the people of .hk. Had they instead extended the agreement another 25 years at the 25 year mark, *maybe* they get the ROC to go along. But now that has a snowball's chance in hell of ever happening.

 

[Tam]

I just hope the diplomatic solution is to keep the status quo until I’m gone.

I doubt the majority of Taiwanese want to be like Hong Kong. And of course "more lenient than Hong Kong" is not a credible promise given what has happened to Hong Kong.

The survey kept by the Election Study Center since 1994 to 2021 has consistently yielded the most 2 popular choices:

Maintain status quo, decide at later date: 28.2% in 2021
Maintain status quo indefinitely: 27.5%. in 2021

The Taiwanese want "Independence as soon as possible," but that has been the bottom choice: 5.7% in 2021 (Very Dark Green/Almost Black line with circles).

Change? Not on my shift. "Kick the can down the road" is the majority's will.

Photo: Taipei Times

 

[Daniel in SD]

The survey kept by the Election Study Center since 1994 to 2021 has consistently yielded the most 2 popular choices:

Maintain status quo, decide at later date: 28.2% in 2021
Maintain status quo indefinitely: 27.5%. in 2021

The Taiwanese want "Independence as soon as possible," but that has been the bottom choice: 5.7% in 2021 (Very Dark Green/Almost Black line with circles).

Change? Not on my shift. "Kick the can down the road" is the majority's will.

Photo: Taipei Times

Great, then there’s no problem.
Why do I get the feeling that Xi does not want the status quo?

 

[Singuy]

Great, then there’s no problem.
Why do I get the feeling that Xi does not want the status quo?

Probably because U.S keeps talking about it and then sanctioning China not only products produced in the U.S but specifically TSMC. This move is no longer just annoying, but a possible national security issue. And we know whenever a country see x, y, z being a national security issue, they tend to escalate.

As if the U.S' plate isn't full, this administration loves to poke the bear.

 

[Tam]

Great, then there’s no problem.
Why do I get the feeling that Xi does not want the status quo?

Imagine that there would be a Chinese military aircraft carrier supporting "human rights" in the American territory Puerto Rico.

Or a Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party would fly to the American territory Puerto Rico to reaffirm military support, including nuclear to the people of Puerto Rico?

That's how China viewed it when the speaker of the United States House of Representatives flew to Taiwan.

It's very benign to the US but very alarming to China: The status quo was broken.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Probably because U.S keeps talking about it and then sanctioning China not only products produced in the U.S but specifically TSMC. This move is no longer just annoying, but a possible national security issue. And we know whenever a country see x, y, z being a national security issue, they tend to escalate.

As if the U.S' plate isn't full, this administration loves to poke the bear.

It’s a HUGE national security issue for the US if China attacks Taiwan. 90% of advanced chips are made in Taiwan. It would be insane not to prepare for the possibility.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Imagine that there would be a Chinese military aircraft carrier supporting "human rights" in the American territory Puerto Rico.

Or a Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party would fly to the American territory Puerto Rico to reaffirm military support, including nuclear to the people of Puerto Rico?

That's how China viewed it when the speaker of the United States House of Representatives flew to Taiwan.

It's very benign to the US but very alarming to China: The status quo was broken.

Puerto Rico has had many votes on whether or not they want to remain a US territory.
The last one was in 2017

2017 Puerto Rican status referendum - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

I just don’t like how actions of the US are going to be used to justify violence against the Taiwanese people. Real “look at what you made me do” vibes going on.

 

[Singuy]

It’s a HUGE national security issue for the US if China attacks Taiwan. 90% of advanced chips are made in Taiwan. It would be insane not to prepare for the possibility.

Yeah but survey shows that China and Taiwan wants the status quo. By "preparing", the U.S can potentially push China into attacking Taiwan or the U.S.

It's like I don't want to attack my neighbor, but if I explain to my neighbor I need to buy a bunch of rifles just in case he attacks me...wouldn't that escalate the situation when we could have both be chilling in our back yard?

U.S sees China as a threat so they are pulling political levers and using soft power trying to curb their threat level...even though by doing so we see an increase in threat level.

 

[Tam]

It’s a HUGE national security issue for the US if China attacks Taiwan. 90% of advanced chips are made in Taiwan. It would be insane not to prepare for the possibility.

It's the same way why the EU didn't plan for the energy shutoff from Russia: Money!

It costs less for the EU to get energy from Russia. It could be independent of Russia, but it would cost more to get from the US and others. Independence from Russia costs money!

We could build chips in the US and be free from China. Like the EU: It's about money! It costs less to get products from China and others.

Would American consumers be willing to pay much more for TV, computers, solar panels, battery, rubber strings, pens...?

 

[Daniel in SD]

Yeah but survey shows that China and Taiwan wants the status quo. By "preparing", the U.S can potentially push China into attacking Taiwan or the U.S.

It's like I don't want to attack my neighbor, but if I explain to my neighbor I need to buy a bunch of rifles just in case he attacks me...wouldn't that escalate the situation when we could have both be chilling in our back yard?

U.S sees China as a threat so they are pulling political levers and using soft power trying to curb their threat level...even though by doing so we see an increase in threat level.

The US trying to become less dependent on Taiwan is going to encourage China to attack Taiwan?

I think your analogy needs more work. The ROC and PRC living in a duplex and the US living in single family house next door.

 

[STS-134]

Imagine that there would be a Chinese military aircraft carrier supporting "human rights" in the American territory Puerto Rico.

Or a Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party would fly to the American territory Puerto Rico to reaffirm military support, including nuclear to the people of Puerto Rico?

In order to make the proper analogy, you'd have to have the US government threatening Puerto Rico with war if it ever votes for independence. As well as the US never having any de facto control over Puerto Rico in the first place.

 

[Daniel in SD]

It's the same way why the EU didn't plan for the energy shutoff from Russia: Money!

It costs less for the EU to get energy from Russia. It could be independent of Russia, but it would cost more to get from the US and others. Independence from Russia costs money!

We could build chips in the US and be free from China. Like the EU: It's about money! It costs less to get products from China and others.

Would American consumers be willing to pay much more for TV, computers, solar panels, battery, rubber strings, pens...?

Yeah, that was a huge mistake for Europe…
I’m saying the US is trying not to make the same mistake. Seems smart to me.
Chip manufacturing is not labor intensive, it doesn’t cost much more to manufacture them here. There is a lot of expertise in Taiwan so the smart thing to do would be to open up immigration to people who want to leave.

 

[Singuy]

The US trying to become less dependent on Taiwan is going to encourage China to attack Taiwan?

I think your analogy needs more work. The ROC and PRC living in a duplex and the US living in single family house next door.

That part is fine, building your own fabs and relying less on Taiwan. But not allowing American companies and TSMC to sell AI chips to China is the U.S trying to curb their power and is escalatory.

 

[Daniel in SD]

That part is fine, building your own fabs and relying less on Taiwan. But not allowing American companies and TSMC to sell AI chips to China is the U.S trying to curb their power and is escalatory.

My understanding is that TSMC can sell chips and build fabs in China. The US has just said they can’t use US chipmaking equipment to do it. I doubt the US would allow sales of US chipmaking equipment to China if they attack Taiwan so I fail to see how that would be a solution to the conflict.
You’ll get no argument from me though that there is an escalating trade war between the US and China.

 

[Singuy]

My understanding is that TSMC can sell chips and build fabs in China. The US has just said they can’t use US chipmaking equipment to do it. I doubt the US would allow sales of US chipmaking equipment to China if they attack Taiwan so I fail to see how that would be a solution to the conflict.
You’ll get no argument from me though that there is an escalating trade war between the US and China.

According to their most current ban, U.S companies are not allowed to sell any 14nm or under AI chips to China. Nvidia reported that this will cause a 400m drop in revenue.

Things were all good with Taiwan prior to this but now the U.S have given China a reason to shut down Taiwan as it's now a national security issue.

 

[Tam]

You’ll get no argument from me though that there is an escalating trade war between the US and China.

Whatever your understanding about the current chip restriction is, the trend is an escalation in trade war and the goal is to hurt China the most.

That is the wrong timing. The right timing is to be free of China products first.

Right now the two economies are dependent on each other. Not just chips but also rare earth minerals for US fighter jets:

US waiver for Chinese alloy on F-35 jets exposes dependence on rare-earth products from China - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

It's easy to think we don't need others, especially our enemies but the US realized that we do need others and actively sought a diplomatic way out while fighting the Vietnam War that resulted in the booming trades with our own enemies Russia and China since the 1970's.

That's much better than an escalation to a destructive war.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Would American consumers be willing to pay much more for TV, computers, solar panels, battery, rubber strings, pens...?

Actually, China as a low cost manufacturing country ended a while ago. The only reason why things are still manufactured there is the sunk cost of capital machines and existent supply chains. Over the next ten or so years, you are likely to see manufacturing move elsewhere. Apple, one of the most China centric manufacturers, recently announced new manufacturing in India. Advanced chip making is building built in Arizona. Manufacturing for the global market has been and will continue to leave China and this is due to costs, unreliability (egregious covid lockdowns), western sanctions, and political interference/instability.

Now, maybe China will right the ship and things will change, but I think the cost part of it will remain.

 

[Singuy]

Actually, China as a low cost manufacturing country ended a while ago. The only reason why things are still manufactured there is the sunk cost of capital machines and existent supply chains. Over the next ten or so years, you are likely to see manufacturing move elsewhere. Apple, one of the most China centric manufacturers, recently announced new manufacturing in India. Advanced chip making is building built in Arizona. Manufacturing for the global market has been and will continue to leave China and this is due to costs, unreliability (egregious covid lockdowns), western sanctions, and political interference/instability.

Now, maybe China will right the ship and things will change, but I think the cost part of it will remain.

China is definitely not the lowest cost on established goods, but they are the lowest cost due to the time factor on new goods. Companies despite having their prototype stolen by the Chinese continues to submit their prototype to China for mass manufacturing as it's the only country that can bring a product to market at the fastest pace possible. No other country is even close to doing this and will not be for awhile due to the abundance of skilled workers and advance manufacturing prowess China possess.

I mean we see this pretty clearly with the gigafactory in Shanghai absolutely destroying the competition when it comes to speed to completion and speed of ramp.