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China Market situation and outlook

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Tesla isn't consistently strong on delivery issues. Remember all the angst about the first deliveries to Hawaii? While it's not surprising that a small, rapidly growing company doesn't get execution to 100%, it certainly is something that TM will need to get under better control to succeed in China.
 
Tesla isn't consistently strong on delivery issues. Remember all the angst about the first deliveries to Hawaii? While it's not surprising that a small, rapidly growing company doesn't get execution to 100%, it certainly is something that TM will need to get under better control to succeed in China.
Of course, one way to smooth out delivery issue is to buffer sales through dealerships. This is part of the price of trying to sale direct. If Tesla sold through dealers, then the likes of Mr. Angrywrench would have paid ed through the nose to one of the few dealers that had any inventory at all, or would have blamed the dealer and not Tesla for the delays. I am not at all a fan of the dealership model, but it does have a few advantages, insulating Tesla from Mr. Angrywrench being about the only one.

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Oh yeah, what happened to the Lemon Law King? I'd be happy to let a dealer put up with that piece of work.
 
Dealers can't fix an inventory shortage. It wouldn't do any good to have a bunch of empty dealer lots with no product to sell. :p
Not true, they can jack the price up so high that it's not a problem for somebody with enormous ego and lots of money. The problem is that Tesla is trying to sell these cars below market value. At market price, demand equals supply.

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Seriously, when Musk says that Tesla is supply constrained, what he is admitting from an economic point of view is that the Model S is underpriced. Sell them to the highest bidder and wait times come down while revenue goes up.
 
Seriously, when Musk says that Tesla is supply constrained, what he is admitting from an economic point of view is that the Model S is underpriced. Sell them to the highest bidder and wait times come down while revenue goes up.
It's more complicated than that. Tesla mission includes proving that EVs can and will be "affordable". Being supply constrained says that better than just about anything else I can imagine.

If they remain supply constrained with gigafactory online and no government incentives (of all flavors), the "affordability" point is proven.
 
A starving man may be willing to pay $50 for a slice of pizza but he's still being ripped off.

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More negative press from China: http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20140629000004&cid=1206&MainCatID=12

Electric car manufacturer Tesla faces problems in China as it has been accused of failing to deliver its Model S on time, to meet Chinese standards and is entangled in a trademark disputes, reports Guangzhou's Southern Daily. The US automaker said its vehicles comply with Chinese laws and has begun accepting preorders for its electric SUV, the Model X.
 
June #: 958
Total Q2 #: 1543

Note: some cars might not be able to be delivered to customers in timely fashion.

It's reported imported Model S to China in May 532.
http://www.d1ev.com/news/industry/2014061232264.html

It's reported imported Model S to China in April 53.
http://www.gw.com.cn/news/news/2014/0509/200000342104.shtml

It's interesting to see those reports about statistics for the imported cars, although the registration number for certain model is not available. I think it's good estimation for China monthly sales number based on imports, but some cars might need to take longer time to clear custom so the "imported" doesn't necessarily mean "sold" for some cases.
 
With this delivery rate, say 958/month, then the very conservative estimation for 2nd half of 2014 would be 5748, so the very conservativ delivery goal for China 2014 delivery would be 5748 + 1543 = 7291.

Note this very conservative estimation is based on two service centers (Beijing/Shanghai), both running on their full capacity (20-30/day) already, and June production rate (800/week). Actually with 5 more service centers to be openned by Q3, 1-2 more SC to be openned by Q4, more production (supply) available in 2nd half. I guess the conservative delivery goal for China would be minimum 8000 in 2014. Let's stay tuned for Q3 numbers to prove this theory.

Bingo! your estimate is dead-on Mao.

http://www.d1ev.com/news/company/2014070132676.html
Reports almost identical 2Q number of 1545, and opines that Tesla's 2015 target of 10,000 sales in China is achievable with aggressive rollout of charging infrastructure.
 
Let's stay tuned for Q3 numbers to prove this theory.

I think it is very hard to extrapolate any particular delivery numbers for any particular geography right now, given Tesla's production constraints and the opening of new markets. In Q3, Hong Kong and Australia should open up. At some point after that, Japan. Further, we get production increases. I think it will be very hard to predict particular deliveries in a specific geography.
 
A starving man may be willing to pay $50 for a slice of pizza but he's still being ripped off.

A life saving piece of food for $50 sounds like a bargain. Depends on how you look at it. But your example is silly. That never happens. People just won't jack up food prices for an individual who looks hungry.

But take a more realistic, similar example. A hurricane hits, knocking out power for weeks. A grocer has a limited supply of canned goods. He can sell them at regular price to the first group of people who visit his store, knowing that many of those customers don't really need the food - they are just buying to stock up. Meanwhile, people who have no food left visit the store later and find all the food has been sold. OR the grocer can double his prices, thus dissuading people from buying food that don't really need it, and allowing those that really really need it to buy it later.

Many people seem to think there is one "fair" price for everything. But that isn't true. Prices depend on each individual buyer and sellers unique situation and circumstance.
 
A life saving piece of food for $50 sounds like a bargain. Depends on how you look at it. But your example is silly. That never happens. People just won't jack up food prices for an individual who looks hungry.

But take a more realistic, similar example. A hurricane hits, knocking out power for weeks. A grocer has a limited supply of canned goods. He can sell them at regular price to the first group of people who visit his store, knowing that many of those customers don't really need the food - they are just buying to stock up. Meanwhile, people who have no food left visit the store later and find all the food has been sold. OR the grocer can double his prices, thus dissuading people from buying food that don't really need it, and allowing those that really really need it to buy it later.

Many people seem to think there is one "fair" price for everything. But that isn't true. Prices depend on each individual buyer and sellers unique situation and circumstance.
When words like "fair" are used w/r/t to economics, all to often it's shorthand for "the price I think should apply".