Tesla says to pick 1,2,3,4 size systems. I was looking at 8k and 12k (2,3). 8k is too little and 12k is too much. My guess is 10k is about right. But in the long run would 12k be too much? I will be getting 2 Powerwalls as well.
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If you produce more than you use and are not paid by the utility, you've installed (and paid for) too much.Can you buy to much range? I don't think so Tim. No such thing as to my solar. You should not even ask this question.
Great of you to size for the future!You have perfectly described me and my situation. As of last week, I am generating about 40-50% more than I am using. I had "just enough" for a one person household and my Tesla. The tax credits are falling this year. I want to future proof my house by making Too-Much, so when I sell it, a family of 4-5 can have a zero utility bill. So, I will make more than I need and use as much as I can/wish to use. In Hawaii, the state grants us a 35% tax credit and the feds still have the 30% tax credit. So it costs me 35 cents on the dollar. To me, its a no brainer.
Tesla says to pick 1,2,3,4 size systems. I was looking at 8k and 12k (2,3). 8k is too little and 12k is too much. My guess is 10k is about right. But in the long run would 12k be too much? I will be getting 2 Powerwalls as well.
No, Jevon's Paradox. Also, you're not factoring in cloudy days which cuts 2/3rds of your production.
200%+ or live under range-anxiety.
This may be closest to my question. How accurate are the "estimates" from Tesla. Does the 8.19kw system produce "Est. Annual Production: 13214" only on the best days? Or does the estimate take in consideration my weather here in Southern California? I know it seems like we have all sun but we do have rainy and cloudy days part of the year. I also have 2 tall palm trees in the front yard close to the front of the house. The solar is east of them so I expect all good until Sun passes past them in the early afternoon and they could shade some. I think if they put on 12k panels it would have to have some in front of the palm trees so will get some late afternoon sun but really hard with my roof line. I did see the engineering for the 8k system but still waiting for the 12k. There was some confusion I guess. They sent pricing documents for the 12k but sent engineering for the 8k. After I order I told the sales guy the 8k was probably too little but 12k might be too big. He said he could do the engineering on the 12k and then based on the how many they could put on that is what I would be charged which sounded good. But then got docs as I said.No, Jevon's Paradox. Also, you're not factoring in cloudy days which cuts 2/3rds of your production.
200%+ or live under range-anxiety.
This may be closest to my question. How accurate are the "estimates" from Tesla. Does the 8.19kw system produce "Est. Annual Production: 13214" only on the best days? Or does the estimate take in consideration my weather here in Southern California? I know it seems like we have all sun but we do have rainy and cloudy days part of the year. I also have 2 tall palm trees in the front yard close to the front of the house. The solar is east of them so I expect all good until Sun passes past them in the early afternoon and they could shade some. I think if they put on 12k panels it would have to have some in front of the palm trees so will get some late afternoon sun but really hard with my roof line. I did see the engineering for the 8k system but still waiting for the 12k. There was some confusion I guess. They sent pricing documents for the 12k but sent engineering for the 8k. After I order I told the sales guy the 8k was probably too little but 12k might be too big. He said he could do the engineering on the 12k and then based on the how many they could put on that is what I would be charged which sounded good. But then got docs as I said.
8.19kw System - "Est. Annual Production: 13,214"
12.28kw System - "Est. Annual Production: 20,095"
More details based on another question above.
There is only 2 of us living in a 3100' home.
We use our AC maybe 4 or 5 months and our gas heater maybe 4 months. Not sure about other months.
Last year I only had 1 Tesla Model S.
My usage last year was 13,412 kWh
My usage during Super Off Peak was 6,495 - so almost 1/2 was my Tesla - more then I was expecting.
We just bought a second Tesla Model 3 for the wife. We are estimating that the will drive about 2-3,000 miles because we normally drive together on the weekends so that could be high. But not sure.
So, 13,412 + 2,500 = 15,912 kWh of usage seems to be a pretty good estimate. This is why I was think a 10k system with Est. Production of about 16,000 would be about what I need to match 100% unless assuming the Tesla Estimate is conservative. I know they get less over the years so that is a consideration. I also only have AC in the upstairs because that is where we spend most of the time and I live not that far from the beach. That works fine except when the kids come for a visit then at bit warm downstairs bedroom during the hot months.
My Grandfathered TOU-D-B will expire 2022 unless then force me to switch early because of Solar. So Super Off Peak is only about $.11 from 10pm - 8am. The new rate plan will be $.13 for all hours except 4-9pm Peak. Which is not that much more for my past charging time. So, not like Hawaii.
We do have NEM 2.0 so the amount of extra production to the grid goes in at the cost at the time of day. I take it out at the cost of time of day. With the new 2010 TOU-PRIME the cost is the same except for 4-9pm peak. For my current plan it is different with peak from 2-8 so could add some extra production between 2-4pm. I expect most production to be between 11-2pm. This is a great deal except that at the end of the year is the "True up" time (I think that is the name) where they pay me wholesale for all current excess at $.03 per Kw. So, best to use what I produce but better to have a little extra than not.
AND... Things could change in the future. Rates could change or my usage could change. Who knows maybe my Teslas will start earning my money in the Tesla Network once FSD is here. Or my car's can run my family around town like a private UBER. .
Annually, the estimates are pretty much on the mark. I also look at daily as that actually matters, vs yearly which is very squishy.This may be closest to my question. How accurate are the "estimates" from Tesla. Does the 8.19kw system produce "Est. Annual Production: 13214" only on the best days? Or does the estimate take in consideration my weather here in Southern California?
I believe you can not change from -B to -A since both are grandfathered. Pretty sure I read that on SCE. I picked -B when I got my Tesla 2 years ago but not sure why. Maybe because of the very low rate of currently $.10 from 10pm-8am. -B is 2-8pm peak. The new TOU are either 4-9 or 5-8. I forgot what -A was. Is it 2-8 like -B. Anyway, hope to stay on -B instead of the new TOU-Prime which is my next option which is 4-9. Lastly, I think 10k system would have worked but Tesla would not sell it.Annually, the estimates are pretty much on the mark. I also look at daily as that actually matters, vs yearly which is very squishy.
For a baseline, a 10 kW system will produce ~60 kWh on an average summer day in SoCal, ~40 kWh on an average winter day, and about 15-30 kWh on an average cloudy day. Rescale for bigger, smaller system.
So, If this fits your daily-power envelope, and/or you can vary your power-consumption, then you'll be fine.
If SCE will let you switch to TOU-A, the ROI is better than -B, otherwise, you should be able to stay on TOU-B until at least Aug, 2020.
The ROI on 4-8pm TOU throws everything out the window.
If the system can cover A/C usage at noon-time (depending on your RLA/FLA of ~4 kW), the PowerWalls can help cover sunset times. As of yesterday, 10 kW of SSW-facing panels still generates ~4 kW at 5:30pm.