Brexit

[Buckminster]

• The Brexit Party has received the highest share of the vote in nine of the 10 regions - with 32% overall

Brexit Party dominates in EU elections

I expected this but still shocking to see. Public is polarised like parliament - all across England except London. The art of compromise needs to come back into fashion. If Corbyn wants any chance of governing, he needs to take the May deal if he is given another chance. Otherwise, Farage will become kingmaker in the 2022 election and hand power back to Tories. Trouble is, all the MPs having a go at May's deal has made it toxic. Will the EU throw us a bone or risk Farage?

No change:-
My update (agnostic on elections, timelines, referendums, leadership contests):
No deal - 20%
Hard Brexit - 25%
Theresa May deal or similar - 30%
Norway/Soft Brexit - 5%
Remain following referendum - 20%

 

[Buckminster]

Laura Kuenssberg on Twitter

 

[RobStark]

Meanwhile in EU elections

 

[neroden]

Meanwhile in EU elections

View attachment 412411

So: The center-right is getting slowly squeezed out by the far right. The traditional left is getting squeezed out by the green left. (ALDE is also more "green" oriented than S&D.) The overall left-right swing actually depends on the new / independent MEPs.

 

[neroden]

Laura Kuenssberg on Twitter

This is a solid piece of data analysis:
Lord Ashcroft: My EU election poll. Most former Tory voters say they will stay with their new party at the next election. | Conservative Home

So the UK's party system is realigning. As usual, the left wing is more splintered than the right-wing. (This is why right-wingers like "first past the post" -- it disadvantages more splintered coalitions and advantages more-unified minority groups like the right-wingers.) But the new alignment is Leave vs. Remain, with Leave voting Brexit or (fewer voters) Tory, and Remain voting SNP in Scotland, and LibDem, Labour, or Green elsewhere.

The Tories and Labour voters are basically habit voters, so they'll disappear as time goes on unless the parties are revitalized. The LibDem and Green voters are more committed, with LibDems caring most about Remain, and Green voters caring more about other things. The Brexit voters are just angry meaning that Brexit Party won't have staying power. The SNP voters are *strongly* committed to the SNP -- Scotland will stay 100% SNP for decades to come.

It's a curse that the UK doesn't have proportional representation yet, because it might lead to Farage as prime minister. If the UK did have proportional representation, he'd have no chance: a coalition led by the LibDems, with the Greens, SNP, and Labour supporting, would most likely win the next election. But with first-past-the-post, Brexit Party could win.

Dangerous times. I wish the election system had been fixed. It may become critical for traditional Labor voters to vote LibDem, and I doubt they'll do it.

May's Conservative Party faces historically worst election result in Brexit crisis - poll - Reuters

Northern Ireland is realigning around Leave v. Remain as well. As a result, the Alliance Party picked up a seat in the EU elections.

An anti-Brexit party just made an extraordinary breakthrough in Northern Ireland

 

[EVNow]

Ironically Tories called Brexit vote to sideline UKIP ! Trumpification of U.K. would be complete if Farage becomes PM.

Does anyone think NI and Scotland will remain within U.K. in that case ?

 

[Buckminster]

This is a solid piece of data analysis:
Lord Ashcroft: My EU election poll. Most former Tory voters say they will stay with their new party at the next election. | Conservative Home

So the UK's party system is realigning. As usual, the left wing is more splintered than the right-wing. (This is why right-wingers like "first past the post" -- it disadvantages more splintered coalitions and advantages more-unified minority groups like the right-wingers.) But the new alignment is Leave vs. Remain, with Leave voting Brexit or (fewer voters) Tory, and Remain voting SNP in Scotland, and LibDem, Labour, or Green elsewhere.

The Tories and Labour voters are basically habit voters, so they'll disappear as time goes on unless the parties are revitalized. The LibDem and Green voters are more committed, with LibDems caring most about Remain, and Green voters caring more about other things. The Brexit voters are just angry meaning that Brexit Party won't have staying power. The SNP voters are *strongly* committed to the SNP -- Scotland will stay 100% SNP for decades to come.

It's a curse that the UK doesn't have proportional representation yet, because it might lead to Farage as prime minister. If the UK did have proportional representation, he'd have no chance: a coalition led by the LibDems, with the Greens, SNP, and Labour supporting, would most likely win the next election. But with first-past-the-post, Brexit Party could win.

Dangerous times. I wish the election system had been fixed. It may become critical for traditional Labor voters to vote LibDem, and I doubt they'll do it.

May's Conservative Party faces historically worst election result in Brexit crisis - poll - Reuters

Northern Ireland is realigning around Leave v. Remain as well. As a result, the Alliance Party picked up a seat in the EU elections.

An anti-Brexit party just made an extraordinary breakthrough in Northern Ireland

I don't see Brexit Party doing nearly as well in any circumstances going forwards. I am always optimistic....

 

[neroden]

I don't see Brexit Party doing nearly as well in any circumstances going forwards. I am always optimistic....

FPTP is a bear. In the next UK general election, I can easily see a lot of seats with Labour 20%, LibDems 20%, Greens 20%, Tories 10%, Brexit 30%, and Brexit candidate winning seat after seat after seat.

Tactical voting becomes critical with FPTP, single-member districts. Brexit could control Parliament with 25% or less of the vote, as long as the rest of the vote is sufficiently splintered.

This is one reason proportional representation is much better. With proportional representation, Farage would have *no chance* of taking control. Sure, Brexit Party did well in the EU (proportional representation) election, but they had no chance of control, as the left-wing parties actually expanded in toto.

Meanwhile, in the next UK general election, it will be critically important for everyone to follow the polling and vote for the *non-Brexit party most likely to win your particular Parliamentary seat*.

 

[Buckminster]

I can easily see a lot of seats with Labour 20%, LibDems 20%, Greens 20%, Tories 10%, Brexit 30%, and Brexit candidate winning seat after seat after seat.

I will consume Raven if Labour and Conservatives receive fewer than 65% of seats at next election (last was 89%).

Meanwhile, we are enjoying ourselves with trumpy at the moment. May's withdrawal from public life (phase 2 of 3) in 6 days. None of her potential successors have caught the eye as yet. Boris announced his candidacy yesterday to zero fanfare - timed to coincide with Trump entry.

 

[RobStark]

So what are the odds on next PM/Tory leader?

 

[Buckminster]

Betfair Exchange | Best Odds Online, Back and Lay Betting

Boris streets ahead - however, he will make a number of mistakes so it won't be so clear cut at the end.

 

[EVNow]

Harakiri in progress.

Ford to close engine plant in Wales in latest blow to UK car sector - Reuters

 

[Buckminster]

Harakiri in progress.

Ford to close engine plant in Wales in latest blow to UK car sector - Reuters

Losing ICE plants is the best form of Harakiri - financially and environmentally.

Theresa May's step 2 of 3 disappearance trick is complete. Now Caretaker PM.

Boris remains well ahead. He will look to appear tough on Brexit but keep the door open to move back to a centrist position post Brexit. His chances are slim in staying in office beyond 5th May 2022. If he Brexits without a deal and the economy does badly he is out along with Conservatives and Farage forever. If he doesn't Brexit, Farage will replace the Conservatives.

May's deal remains important as a "no deal" will only happen if EU don't offer extensions. Boris will back it with the smallest of changes (Trump style) but that won't be enough for parliament. This is all summarised here:

No change:-
My update (agnostic on elections, timelines, referendums, leadership contests):
No deal - 20%
Hard Brexit - 25%
Theresa May deal or similar - 30%
Norway/Soft Brexit - 5%
Remain following referendum - 20%

 

[Buckminster]

Michael Gove has essentially been eliminated - cocaine.
Amber Rudd is backing Jeremy Hunt rather than Gove or Boris. This makes Hunt clear 2nd place - Boris will offer him a role to step down ahead of grassroots vote - or maybe the vote will go ahead to confirm to the EU where the grassroots are at.

I haven't given up on the EU offering my 10 year backstop sunset clause. The EU have 28 pro Farage MEPs disrupting their parliamentary chats - has it really been worth it?

Here in London, no one talks Brexit at work much - people genuinely bored of it. Backstop etc. not even in the papers. Trump came for tea and the royal family dressed up again for the trooping of the colour....

 

[Singer3000]

Michael Gove has essentially been eliminated - cocaine.
Amber Rudd is backing Jeremy Hunt rather than Gove or Boris. This makes Hunt clear 2nd place - Boris will offer him a role to step down ahead of grassroots vote - or maybe the vote will go ahead to confirm to the EU where the grassroots are at.

I haven't given up on the EU offering my 10 year backstop sunset clause. The EU have 28 pro Farage MEPs disrupting their parliamentary chats - has it really been worth it?

Here in London, no one talks Brexit at work much - people genuinely bored of it. Backstop etc. not even in the papers. Trump came for tea and the royal family dressed up again for the trooping of the colour....

There's no way Hunt can win this time around because: a) MPs will almost certainly put at least one leaver to the members, and b) the members will almost certainly choose a leaver over a remainer.

Hunt will therefore be seen by many MPs as a wasted vote, as they know he couldn't win the members' vote. Hence Gove's rise before the unfortunate stories of the past few days, as the Remainer's choice of Leaver.

If Gove really is out the race, then that really benefits Boris, who is the most socially liberal of the remaining Leaver candidates (and polls best with the country at large). If he doesn't have any more major skeletons waiting to jump out the closet, then the leadership vote could be quite a straightforward process from here. The MPs will get their chance to virtue signal in the first round of voting on Thursday and thereafter most likely coalesce around him.

 

[neroden]

Honestly, they could do worse than Boris. (They could *easily* do worse than Boris. They *have* been doing a *lot* worse than Boris.)

 

[Singer3000]

Honestly, they could do worse than Boris. (They could *easily* do worse than Boris. They *have* been doing a *lot* worse than Boris.)

Indeed. The outgoing government was comfortably the worst of my lifetime.

One positive trend in the current beauty parade is the amount of lip service being given to green issues. Remains to be seen if it’s all fur coat and no knickers or a serious shift in policy priorities. If the UK does end up gaining control of its own tariff schedule and VAT policy, I shall be writing in to lobby that the first thing to go should be the 10% tariff plus 20% VAT on Model 3s!

 

[Buckminster]

No deal blocker was voted down yesterday. This increases Boris' chance of genuinely threatening no deal in order to get a deal alteration. Whether EU believe Boris would actually follow through is perhaps not that important - a small change may be sufficient - win-win.

The real debate should be - what trade deal Boris will go for post Brexit? He can't have EU plus the rest of the world. Given the momentum, he may have to ditch EU which he will hate despite his rhetoric. That could trigger global recession? This is one reason that I am not against the May deal. Being trapped in the backstop forever may start looking like a really great position to be in despite the sovereignty losses. It could galvanise the Brits to be a bit more entrepreneurial.

I would expect the country to move back to a more liberal position following Brexit whatever the outcome. The remainers will blame the brexiteers for the outcome and will win on moral grounds (public bars all the way up to parliament). Any hard Brexit benefits will not be apparent for years and years by which time millennials will have taken over the boardrooms (even if they aren't in the room).

My update (agnostic on elections, timelines, referendums, leadership contests):
No deal - 20%
Hard Brexit - 15%
Theresa May deal with alterations - 45%
Norway/Soft Brexit - 5%
Remain following referendum - 15%

 

[Singer3000]

No deal blocker was voted down yesterday. This increases Boris' chance of genuinely threatening no deal in order to get a deal alteration. Whether EU believe Boris would actually follow through is perhaps not that important - a small change may be sufficient - win-win.

The real debate should be - what trade deal Boris will go for post Brexit? He can't have EU plus the rest of the world. Given the momentum, he may have to ditch EU which he will hate despite his rhetoric. That could trigger global recession? This is one reason that I am not against the May deal. Being trapped in the backstop forever may start looking like a really great position to be in despite the sovereignty losses. It could galvanise the Brits to be a bit more entrepreneurial.

I would expect the country to move back to a more liberal position following Brexit whatever the outcome. The remainers will blame the brexiteers for the outcome and will win on moral grounds (public bars all the way up to parliament). Any hard Brexit benefits will not be apparent for years and years by which time millennials will have taken over the boardrooms (even if they aren't in the room).

My update (agnostic on elections, timelines, referendums, leadership contests):
No deal - 20%
Hard Brexit - 15%
Theresa May deal with alterations - 45%
Norway/Soft Brexit - 5%
Remain following referendum - 15%

Boris is a free trader and would love an all encompassing deal with the US. But the protectionist lobby and its misinformation campaign is sufficiently strong in the UK across a number of sectors that it's hard to see public opinion (and certainly the current Parliament) backing a proper UK-US free trade deal.

For example, everyone quite happily chomps on chlorinated European salad but chains themselves to the barricade over the prospect of the shops stocking chlorinated American chicken. They unwittingly go under the knife in an NHS hospital with the procedure subcontracted out to the lowest bidder in the European private healthcare sector, but in an almost religious frenzy say that they don't want the NHS privatised by the evil US healthcare industry. They're still happy to buy German autos even after dieselgate but are seemingly oblivious to the 10% tariff on Teslas that the May government said would persist even during an emergency period of across-the-board unilateral zero tariffs following a no-deal brexit. I despair I really do.

The easy deal to do with the US (and perhaps most meaningful) is on financial services, with the Anglo Saxon axis coming together to set the rules that the rest of the world would then follow. That could be done quite quickly, perhaps accompanied with smoother visa arrangements too. The big deal would have to wait if and until Boris gets his landslide and Trump gets his second term.

Being trapped in the backstop by the way would be the antithesis of a spur to entrepreneurship. You only need to see the counterproductive safety restrictions the EU has just placed on Tesla's Autopilot to see why.

With respect to your percentages, the way this is headed seems to me that Boris will challenge the departing Commission to insert an exit clause for the backstop so it's just loose enough for the DUP to back it. These talks will break down or won't go far enough for the DUP. Boris will then pursue a No-Deal exit and will challenge Parliament to bring down his government to stop him. I think there's a very good chance it would oblige. He then has the perfect pitch to voters to back him in the ensuing election. Unless tactical voting is perfect between Labour and Greens/Lib Dems (which it won't be, there's a growing hatred of Corbyn by many on the left), Boris will likely get a majority to implement a No-Deal brexit with perhaps only 37-38% of the vote. He'll reach that hurdle but only if he can persuade Farage to stand back in the key marginals. Brexit Day will thus be on 29th March after all, but just 1-year later than originally intended.

 

[bhtooefr]

They unwittingly go under the knife in an NHS hospital with the procedure subcontracted out to the lowest bidder in the European private healthcare sector, but in an almost religious frenzy say that they don't want the NHS privatised by the evil US healthcare industry.

I'm sorry, have you seen our healthcare industry?

Our healthcare industry literally consists of people begging for the money to pay for life-saving treatments, because insurance won't cover enough of it. (And I don't just mean the otherwise indigent, either, but they shouldn't have to beg either. I mean, like, get cancer, and someone with insurance can be knocked out of the upper-middle-class straight into bankruptcy and poverty, easily.)

Our healthcare industry causes employers to not hire people because of the ludicrous cost of insurance they're required to buy for those people, even as the insurance doesn't cover anywhere near enough for the employee to actually afford to use it.

Our healthcare industry drives people to suicide because they don't want to burden their family with medical bills. (Meanwhile, our healthcare industry releases propaganda through our news media claiming that implementing a system like the NHS in the US would cause "unelected government bureaucrats" to form "death panels" that decide whether you get to live or die. Never mind that those death panels already exist in the for-profit healthcare industry.)

They're perfectly right to not want the NHS privatized by our healthcare industry.