Brexit

[EVNow]

Agree with it or not, Corbyn as national security risk has had major cut through with the voting public.

This is all we need to know as to why there is so much FUD about Corbyn.

 

[Buckminster]

No 10 'ready for more Brexit talks'
May wants to keep talking with Labour but not offering customs union.

My update:
No deal - 15%
Hard Brexit following Article 50 extension - 10%
Theresa May deal - 45%
Norway/Soft Brexit following extension - 25%
Remain following referendum - 5%

I still see life in May's deal (just the 2 of us at the moment...). Various parts of the EU keep admitting there would not be a hard border. I am still going to suggest the EU put a 10 year sunset clause on the backstop. That guarantees 12 years to prepare technologies. Every chance that we would agree a fairly soft deal with EU post Brexit anyway. Hard Brexit/no deal has lost momentum but so has remain.

 

[Singer3000]

Obviously you have drunk the military-industrial complex Kool-Aid.

Ofcourse the first question is why the hell are British soldiers in a far away land ? Didn't the empire wind down in 1947 ?

Second, the military attracts a certain type of personality that normally supports authoritarian right-wing talking points. Even in the US most of the military trends right. The weirdest thing is - an anti-war candidate like Corbyn would bring the troops back home, out of harms way. But those guys are too thick headed to get it.

Back to Brexit : Here is what I'm reading as to why May finally decided to ask for Corbyn's help. She figured out a No Deal Brexit would
- Initiate a border poll resulting in N Ireland merging with Ireland. In the short term it meant London having to start directly ruling over NI, obviously something they don't want to do again.
- Scotland probably going independent as well.

It’s a rather odd spectacle. Just as Labour and Conservatives are arguing over whether to implement an interim customs union that might be permanent or a permanent customs union that can be cancelled. May was worried about having to implement direct rule of Northern Ireland, even though this has been happening in all but name since 2017 when the Stormont Assembly was suspended. In fact Stormont has been suspended for roughly one third of the time since the passage of the Good Friday Agreement.

Scottish Independence is possibly a red herring in all this. Seeing how hard it is for the UK to leave the EU, imagine what it would be like for Scotland to leave the UK, given the economic and societal integration. I doubt a repeat poll would be anything like as close as it was in 2014. It doesn’t surprise me that May thinks otherwise as her political acumen has been shown to be very poor for many years now.

 

[Mader Levap]

That guarantees 12 years to prepare technologies.

Thinking border customs will be "invisible" any time soon (if ever) is delusional. There is no such thing as "technology and arms-length processes that are not as blunt as armed road-side inspection units".* It is made up bullsugar peddled by people that want to pretend whole Irish thing is not big deal an can be either ignored or pushed away to future so that someone else will have to deal with it. Pathetic.

* If they actually existed and worked, they would be already in use everywhere.

 

[EVNow]

It doesn’t surprise me that May thinks otherwise as her political acumen has been shown to be very poor for many years now.

IIRC, it isn't May - but warning from one of the departments that she took seriously.

A hard (no-deal) Brexit that closes the NI border with Ireland can lead to outcomes that you would normally not expect.

It's not like Britain doesn't have experience breaking up countries

It looks like Corbyn-May talks are not really going anywhere. Labor is accusing May of not being ready to make any changes. So, I guess the next step is to have some more votes and May will implement whatever wins in the Parliament.

 

[Singer3000]

It looks like Corbyn-May talks are not really going anywhere. Labor is accusing May of not being ready to make any changes. So, I guess the next step is to have some more votes and May will implement whatever wins in the Parliament.

Except they’ve now had more votes in Parliament that I can count, on every conceivable option. No Brexit, hard Brexit, “the deal”, customs union, single market, referendum, managed no deal over two years, no deal in two weeks. And a general election (the Dec vote of no confidence).

The only things with a majority have been a) the Deal with an end date to the backstop (not currently on the table), and b) indefinite can kicking.

Customs union might get there if the govt payroll is whipped to support. But it just as easily could collapse the government.

 

[EVNow]

Customs union might get there if the govt payroll is whipped to support. But it just as easily could collapse the government.

Well, if May would support CU, she will have a deal with Corbyn !

I'd cynically suggest, May said she'll talk to Corbyn just to show EU she is seriously trying to get a deal to pass in Parliament (and thus get an extension).

A lot of Tories don't want CU - and a lot of Labor want confirmatory vote. Corbyn may be able to survive if he agrees to a plan without the second vote - but not sure Tories can survive CU.

 

[neroden]

IIRC, it isn't May - but warning from one of the departments that she took seriously.

A hard (no-deal) Brexit that closes the NI border with Ireland can lead to outcomes that you would normally not expect.

It's not like Britain doesn't have experience breaking up countries

It looks like Corbyn-May talks are not really going anywhere. Labor is accusing May of not being ready to make any changes. So, I guess the next step is to have some more votes and May will implement whatever wins in the Parliament.

Why the hell is May still PM? The one thing which is obvious is that she's lost confidence and supply and cannot run the country.

Is it because the Tories can't come up with any other alternative?

Is is because none of the other Tories *want* to be in the hot seat?

I know it's because the Tories are unwilling to call a general election because they know they'll lose.

 

[neroden]

IIRC, it isn't May - but warning from one of the departments that she took seriously.

A hard (no-deal) Brexit that closes the NI border with Ireland can lead to outcomes that you would normally not expect.

It's not like Britain doesn't have experience breaking up countries

India-Pakistan.

 

[RobStark]

May refuses to resign.

And she can't be challenged as Tory leader again according to Party rules until December.

 

[Buckminster]

May hasn't done well. She is looking to get a legacy of some sort. If she were to resign, where could she show her face?
If she gets a deal, things change a fair bit for her - she could show her face in the Lords. In addition to her moral obligation. Nobody has a better deal in mind that actually works.
Tories are all jockeying for who will be Boris' chancellor etc. Boris is not hugely popular amongst the MPs but seen as the only one that could beat Corbyn - particularly following May debacle. Nobody wants the job until post Brexit.
Secondary mission for May is to stop Boris from reverting to hard Brexit following Brexit. That improves her legacy further although not with tory grassroots. She could be quite popular in the Lords however - when all is forgotten.
Lords vote tonight to rule out no deal.
Corbyn and May still chatting about a customs union opposed to customs arrangement.

 

[RobStark]

May hasn't done well. She is looking to get a legacy of some sort. If she were to resign, where could she show her face?

May could follow the path of ex Mexican Presidents.

Take a professorship at Harvard and teach one class per semester.* In European politics for example.

In 10 years she can return to the UK, when people forgot they despise her.


* Unlike Mexican Presidents, I hear May's English proficiency is brilliant!

 

[Buckminster]

May could follow the path of ex Mexican Presidents.

Take a professorship at Harvard and teach one class per semester.* In European politics for example.

In 10 years she can return to the UK, when people forgot they despise her.


* Unlike Mexican Presidents, I hear May's English proficiency is brilliant!

Or setup a bookshop to sell:

 

[Singer3000]

Why the hell is May still PM? The one thing which is obvious is that she's lost confidence and supply and cannot run the country.

Is it because the Tories can't come up with any other alternative?

Is is because none of the other Tories *want* to be in the hot seat?

I know it's because the Tories are unwilling to call a general election because they know they'll lose.

As noted by @RobStark, she is safe from a formal challenge by her own backbenchers until Dec 2019. For now I suspect she maintains the confidence of the house (but only just). No one in the Tory party wants her to fight the next election and there are very many candidates that want the job.

So she will soon be out, upon one of the two following events: a) EU withdrawal is finally approved and legislated for by Parliament, b) a long extension is approved by the EU. She's in her final weeks if not days before triggering a new leadership contest.

But to your earlier point, the Fixed Term Parliament Act has a lot to answer for here. She could for example have made the most recent Meaningful Vote a matter of confidence and it might then have squeaked through. If it hadn't, then the mechanism for new elections would have kicked in.

 

[AudubonB]

Is it not the case that the Queen can determine* May’s position? Is this not an option?




*Means: gives her the boot.

 

[ggr]

Is it not the case that the Queen can determine* May’s position? Is this not an option?




*Means: gives her the boot.

Don't forget that Her Majesty is probably a monarchist, and may actually support Brexit deep inside. Booting out May might actually cancel Brexit.

 

[neroden]

May hasn't done well. She is looking to get a legacy of some sort. If she were to resign, where could she show her face?
If she gets a deal, things change a fair bit for her - she could show her face in the Lords. In addition to her moral obligation. Nobody has a better deal in mind that actually works.
Tories are all jockeying for who will be Boris' chancellor etc. Boris is not hugely popular amongst the MPs but seen as the only one that could beat Corbyn - particularly following May debacle. Nobody wants the job until post Brexit.

Boris is indeed the only Tory with a chance of winning a general election. He had a good record as Mayor of London.

Secondary mission for May is to stop Boris from reverting to hard Brexit following Brexit.

Boris is more reasonable than he appears. Some have attributed this to Boris *knowing* that he's not that bright, whereas most Tory politicians think they know everything.

That improves her legacy further although not with tory grassroots. She could be quite popular in the Lords however - when all is forgotten.
Lords vote tonight to rule out no deal.
Corbyn and May still chatting about a customs union opposed to customs arrangement.

 

[Buckminster]

Is it not the case that the Queen can determine* May’s position? Is this not an option?




*Means: gives her the boot.

The brilliance (if there is any) of the UK political system is that the Queen's power remains unused. Queen won't do anything in public unless things are much much worse. Also, what would the Queen select? The current deal really is fairly good all things considered. The public will realise this soon when they find out that a Corbyn customs union is worse on several metrics. The only redeeming feature of leaving the EU is the possibility (or illusion) of actually doing deals with the rest of the world whilst holding onto much of the current EU trade. Customs union stops other deals.

 

[Singer3000]

Boris is indeed the only Tory with a chance of winning a general election. He had a good record as Mayor of London.


Boris is more reasonable than he appears. Some have attributed this to Boris *knowing* that he's not that bright, whereas most Tory politicians think they know everything.

Every bad leader I’ve ever known or worked with, has been bad not because they had limitations but because they lacked the self awareness to recognise those limitations. The very best have in public forums with very junior subordinates, not been afraid to say “you young bucks are too fast for me. Can you please explain that again because what you said doesn’t make sense to me”. The world crashed in 2008 because the grey hairs refused to say aloud “these CDOs make no sense to me”.

Boris knows what’s he’s good at. Sunny big picture optimism and setting a mood. “London is the greatest city on earth” type spiel, that was great at attracting FDI. He knows he’s bad at detail. The things that went wrong when Mayor (e.g. wasted money on the abandoned garden bridge) were largely as a result of him either not having access to the best talent or else failing to listen to them.

He’s a highly known quantity by everybody in the country, which makes him quite a divisive figure. He’s also not liked by ex-media colleagues, which means he’s frequently quoted out of context. It surprises me sometimes the people who have a visceral hatred of him and I’ve realised it’s because that narrative has stuck and they falsely attribute certain things to him. (Echoes is lots of liberal people hating Musk).

He is for example nothing like Trump, in that he is very pro (skilled) immigration, is above all else an internationalist (just not the highly centralised structure of the EU) and is instinctively free trade.

His only realistic route to power is a long extension of Article 50 (or even its outright revocation on Friday if Macron blocks an extension). Any other circumstance and I think they’ll go with someone else.

 

[EVNow]

Boris has the best odds (5.9) of all for being the next Tory leader. Followed by Gove, Hunt & Raab.

Betfair Exchange | Best Odds Online, Back and Lay Betting

Before May got elected, CW was that Boris would be the PM but Gove backstabbed him.