Brexit

[Singer3000]

Under approval voting, it's pretty clear what's most popular with Parliament:
(1) Second vote
(2) Customs union

So, have a second vote. What should you vote on? Well, that was also answered:
"Should we (A) stay in the EU or should we (B) leave the EU and have a customs union with the EU instead"

Of course they will not do anything as sensible as to have a vote on that

A second vote might sound sensible from an academic perspective but for well rehearsed reasons, would only serve to prolong economic uncertainty and further undermine social unity.

It would also be somewhat perverse to have a referendum including an option (Remain/Revocation of Article 50) that has already been discounted by both the electorate (in the 2016 referendum) and parliament (multiple times in recent weeks). Especially given you wish to exclude from such a vote the option that seems to have growing and very possibly soon majority public support:

Fortunately the UK has a perfectly sensible and very well established system for deciding between multiple possible political courses. That system is to run a general election under first past the post. I suspect we'll have one soon, where the voters will be given an unambiguous choice between all of: referendum or straight revocation of article 50 (Lib Dems, TIG, SNP), exit with a customs union (Labour), exit broadly according to the Withdrawal Agreement (Conservative) and exit on WTO terms (Farage Party, UKIP, possibly Conservative depending on who the new leader is).

 

[neroden]

The one thing that the Tories and the DUP are dead set against, the one and only thing they have a majority for, is NOT having a general election.

Obviously there should have been a general election a while ago, but there won't be one until the "fixed term" is up at the rate things are going.

"No deal Brexit" is not an option, because it violates the Good Friday agreement. Doesn't really matter what *English* people think about that, no politician will be responsible for restarting the Irish war. (Well, maybe some of the nuttier ones would, but their houses would probably be firebombed by *both* sides.)

 

[EVNow]

I would venture that comment being somewhat a mischaracterisation of the data, especially given the very small number of Don’t Knows for Corbyn.
View attachment 391404

The one I saw Gove much lower. I'll find the link and post later.

 

[EVNow]

Now that May half deal vote has also lost by a big margin - looks like even May is open to general election. It would be a travesty if second referendum is not held simultaneously.

 

[EVNow]

Here is an interesting meme going around about Brexit ...

 

[Buckminster]

• Leave in May 2019 with T May's deal - 5%

• Leave in May 2019 with a permanent customs union in the political declaration - 5%

• No deal in Apr/May 2019 - 1%

• Extension period of at least a year - 89%

• Everything else - 0%

I have only covered the long term options.
There is now a 40% chance of Brexit being scrapped, says Goldman Sachs
GS percentages are:

• No deal 15%
• Remain 40%
• modified deal 45%

Preferential voting tomorrow. May still wants a fourth vote and possibly threatening an election. Conservatives don't want a long delay.

Meanwhile - Mother's Day today in UK - you would never know that we will be eating cold canned food in a couple of weeks.

 

[Singer3000]

I have only covered the long term options.
There is now a 40% chance of Brexit being scrapped, says Goldman Sachs
GS percentages are:

• No deal 15%
• Remain 40%
• modified deal 45%

Preferential voting tomorrow. May still wants a fourth vote and possibly threatening an election. Conservatives don't want a long delay.

Meanwhile - Mother's Day today in UK - you would never know that we will be eating cold canned food in a couple of weeks.

I thought Project Fear v2 was that the UK will soon be suffocating under mountains of uneaten carcasses of unexportable Welsh lamb?

I think GS have got far too short odds on No Deal. What if the voting tomorrow still shows no majority for anything?

 

[EVNow]

Here is what professional betters are saying.

Brexit Latest: Labour take poll lead as bettors make general election 50/50

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 41% (+5)
CON: 36% (-7)
LDEM: 7% (+1)
UKIP: 7% (+2)

via @DeltaPollUK
Chgs. w/ 23 Feb

 

[Rarity]

Meanwhile - Mother's Day today in UK - you would never know that we will be eating cold canned food in a couple of weeks.

Can you discuss what you think would happen in a no-deal Brexit? It seems adjustments on imports such as fresh food could be made to be minimal.

 

[Buckminster]

Can you discuss what you think would happen in a no-deal Brexit? It seems adjustments on imports such as fresh food could be made to be minimal.

I am not sure on expectations other than the major risk being that much of our imports come through Dover - Calais or Eurotunnel. This could be a major pinch point if French customs officers have to or want to add a few seconds to every inspection that comes through. We have a ~three lane road and a ~2 lane road feeding both. Much of Ireland's EU to EU traffic will come through the same pinch point which should lead it to be okay.

 

[Singer3000]

I am not sure on expectations other than the major risk being that much of our imports come through Dover - Calais or Eurotunnel. This could be a major pinch point if French customs officers have to or want to add a few seconds to every inspection that comes through. We have a ~three lane road and a ~2 lane road feeding both. Much of Ireland's EU to EU traffic will come through the same pinch point which should lead it to be okay.

I don't expect that the flow of goods into the UK will be affected much. The Dover-Calais crossing has been through far worse over the years (such as major industrial action on the French side) and the exec management of the port seem quite bullish.

The most visible problem will in my view be if a tariff standstill arrangement could not be agreed with the EU. If not, the UK plans to unilaterally move to a zero tariff arrangement on almost all imports for an "interim" period to ensure the smooth flow of goods (sorry Tesla fans, still not autos). Of particular importance is whether exports of UK agri products would suddenly be confronted by the EU tariff wall on an asymmetrical basis. Which if I'm not wrong are charged by the EU to the rest of the world at 40% for sheep and beef products. I was only half joking about the mountains of lamb.

The Withdrawal Agreement is by far the most sensible route forward. Perhaps more in hope than expectation, I still think it will be approved by Parliament when confronted at the end with a straight choice between that and a permanent customs union.

 

[RobStark]

I was only half joking about the mountains of lamb.

There is a bottomless pit of demand in Northern China for discounted Welsh lamb.

 

[Singer3000]

There is a bottomless pit of demand in Northern China for discounted Welsh lamb.

Mmmmmm. I was once given an entire sheeps head in Western China, with the back of the skull sawed off for easy access to the those luscious grey folds. Only some chilli sauce and rice wine to wash it down with but did my best.

Farmers adjust over time to changes in the market (and market intervention policies!). What seems clear though is that the 2019-2020 crop of spring lamb would likely have to be bought by the state at a floor price and then heavily discounted to flog it anywhere they could. Nothing would spell failure of Brexit to British people more than the sight of tens of thousands of lamb carcasses being torched.

 

[EVNow]

So, finally May is begging Corbyn to save her Brexit. Will have to see if its a trap.

Obviously the ultra-right is up in arms over May talking to "Marxists".

In the meantime - finally one proposal gets a one vote majority.

Robert Peston on Twitter

Letwin wins by 1 vote. 312 to 311. Wow. So there will be a bill that seeks to force Brexit delay on PM

 

[Singer3000]

So, finally May is begging Corbyn to save her Brexit. Will have to see if its a trap.

Obviously the ultra-right is up in arms over May talking to "Marxists".

In the meantime - finally one proposal gets a one vote majority.

Robert Peston on Twitter

A) The Irish Backstop is basically an interim customs union that some people fear could be permanent.

B) Corbyn (presumably for mischievous reasons) wants a permanent customs union. But no Parliament can bind the hands of its successor, which means it can't really ever be called permanent.

Without May whipping the government payroll, there's no Parliamentary majority for:
C) Continued Freedom of Movement, or
D) Second Referendum (or Revoke),

And she'd be removed as leader if she even tried.

The only reason Brexit hasn't already happened therefore is party politics. If Corbyn wants an election, then his talks with May will break down after he insists on either C) or D). If he thinks he'll get an election anyway, then they'll come up with something somewhere between A) and B), so he can appear Prime Ministerial and it will pass with a substantial Tory rebellion.

 

[EVNow]

B) Corbyn (presumably for mischievous reasons) wants a permanent customs union. But no Parliament can bind the hands of its successor, which means it can't really ever be called permanent.

His stated position is CU - what "mischievous" reason would that be ? BTW, labor leaders are also demanding Corbyn include a condition of confirmatory vote (i.e. referendum) with any deal.

OTOH, labor folks are saying May wants to do a No deal Brexit, but blame it on Corbyn.

And ofcourse, we have the interesting spectacle of British soldiers using Corbyn photo for target practice.

 

[Singer3000]

His stated position is CU - what "mischievous" reason would that be ? BTW, labor leaders are also demanding Corbyn include a condition of confirmatory vote (i.e. referendum) with any deal.

OTOH, labor folks are saying May wants to do a No deal Brexit, but blame it on Corbyn.

And of course, we have the interesting spectacle of British soldiers using Corbyn photo for target practice.

Well a permanent customs union on its own is a silly policy, because:
a) it is an upside down arrangement for the uk, which has a trade deficit in goods and a surplus in services with the EU
b) if the EU signs free trade deals with third countries, they would be able to sell to the UK market tariff free but with no automatic right of reciprocation (see Turkey, the only other country with this silly arrangement)
c) the UK would not have a voice in those future trade negotiation, thereby losing an important lever in international diplomacy on matters unrelated to trade (for example human rights abuses, women’s rights, environmental/endangered species welfare).
d) it does not allow regulatory divergence and means the UK still be subject to ECJ jurisdiction, undermining what is reported as the number 1 motivating voting factor for Leave voters in 2016.

Corbyn isn’t a policy wonk but his team well understand all of this. He is supporting a “permanent” customs union superficially because it is attractive (in the short term) to certain manufacturing interests in Labour voting areas that have integrated supply chains.

But primarily because he knows it will tear his political opponents in two. This is the card he is playing, because he knows he can’t offer freedom of movement (Single Market) because his own voters would hammer him. And he doesn’t want a referendum because he is really a brexiteer. [On this, you should not pay any attention to what Keir Starmer, Tom Watson or Emily Thornbury have to say. They are there to make the Corbyn project attractive to a wider voting base. Listen instead to Corbyn’s actual outriders, including Rebecca Long Bailey and Owen Jones. And note the 40 Labour MPs that refused to back a referendum last week in Parliament. Sorry to disappoint you but numbers aren’t there for it.]

The Irish Backstop is advertised as an Interim Measure. Even if you think it won’t be, at least the promise from both sides of working to make it interim has to be more attractive than giving up in advance and declaring it permanent without even trying.

 

[Singer3000]

And ofcourse, we have the interesting spectacle of British soldiers using Corbyn photo for target practice.

This is not a great look but having spent time on UK army bases, I can tell you it’s not out of the orindary. When unsupervised, they normally stick up a poster of whoever happens to be lying around.

If there was more to it, then it should be quite illustrative given these guys are Corbyn’s perfect demographic a) young, b) presumably working class. Agree with it or not, Corbyn as national security risk has had major cut through with the voting public. Right now he’d win a landslide were it not for this factor. But as it is, there’s little polling evidence that he’s even consistently ahead of the worst Prime Minister certainly in my lifetime but probably substantially longer.

 

[neroden]

May is definitely the worst prime minister since Lord Liverpool. Maybe longer.

Sad to see that red scare nonsense works in the UK. May is a national security risk. Obviously Corbyn is not. (A risk to the City, sure, but he is obviously a patriot, unlike May.)

 

[EVNow]

If there was more to it, then it should be quite illustrative given these guys are Corbyn’s perfect demographic a) young, b) presumably working class. Agree with it or not, Corbyn as national security risk has had major cut through with the voting public.

Obviously you have drunk the military-industrial complex Kool-Aid.

Ofcourse the first question is why the hell are British soldiers in a far away land ? Didn't the empire wind down in 1947 ?

Second, the military attracts a certain type of personality that normally supports authoritarian right-wing talking points. Even in the US most of the military trends right. The weirdest thing is - an anti-war candidate like Corbyn would bring the troops back home, out of harms way. But those guys are too thick headed to get it.

Back to Brexit : Here is what I'm reading as to why May finally decided to ask for Corbyn's help. She figured out a No Deal Brexit would
- Initiate a border poll resulting in N Ireland merging with Ireland. In the short term it meant London having to start directly ruling over NI, obviously something they don't want to do again.
- Scotland probably going independent as well.