1% is significant, 2% would be huge... guarantee oil producers are noticing this already.
Not really.
First- that's 1% of 1 years sales (about 800k out of 80 million sold)- not total vehicles in service.
There's something like 1.3
billion personal and commercial vehicles in service in the world. There's about 3 million total EVs.
So EVs are 0.23% of vehicles in the world.
It's even less significant than that though.
Only about 50% of oil is used for gasoline anyway, and some of the rest is used to produce the electricity EVs run on.
So you're talking, optimistically, of roughly a 0.1% actual change in oil demand from all EVs ever sold right now.
That's a rounding error to big oil right now.
Noticing? Sure. Missing any meals over it? Nope, and not for some years yet.
Especially when fuel economy standards that were getting higher in say the US no longer have to anymore.
1
can't wait till it hits 10%+ next year if recent ev sales charts are anything to go by.
Uh- it's physically impossible for it to hit 10% next year. Or the year after that.
10% would be about 8 million cars a year.
Tesla produces more batteries (by kwh) than every other car company in the world combined- and they're hundreds of thousands of cars of capacity short to make
1 million a year.
Battery production capacity (worldwide) is expected to about double by 2020.
At which point they still won't be making enough to produce enough cars to hit 10% of the market.
This is why tesla has a big competitive advantage right now (well, one reason anyway) and why some big legacy makers are dumping billions into battery production facilities right now.
Are more companies get better at making EVs at a profit, and more customers accept EVs as ICE alternatives, battery production is going to remain the limiting factor for years to come yet.
EVs won't even be 50% of the market in 20 years by most analysis projections because there simply won't be enough batteries produced in the world for that to be possible.