I'd be quite surprised if in a few years either Tesla or various 3rd parties didn't have replacement and upgrade battery packs for the S and X. Assuming that Tesla continues selling at least 10K cars per year, that starts getting to be a worthwhile specialty market, probably well over $100M/year.
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Consider: a 40kWh owner wants to prepay an 85kWh battery. Would TM accept his $12,000?
The Model S uses the 3.1Ah cells.
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Yeah, the automotive aftermarket is a huge business. Since you can buy the 18650 form factor cells, any reputable EV shop should be able to replace them in the future. The price will depend on the future cost of batteries, which no one can predict.
ToddRLockwood
Active Member
My take on his comment is that the kWh capacity of the battery pack would remain the same. If the cells become more powerful by then, there will be fewer of them in the battery pack. The reason is that the wiring and circuitry beyond the pack is sized to deal with a certain maximum load. This is also why a 40kWh battery cannot be used on a Supercharger.
I read this as "It's the same physical size, but the range may increase." I don't think anyone expects the battery pack to change in dimensions and still be able to be installed on a Model S.
I think the the common misconception here is swapping packs with a different number of cells in them, to just replacing the existing cells with higher capacity ones. The latter is physically and technically possible as long as the cells are the same form factor and the voltage parameters are similar. The former would also be possible as long as the firmware and hardware are the same on the vehicles, information which only Tesla has at this time.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I disagree. I think it means that the physical size of the pack will be the same but it's capacity could be higher.
Same sized pack, increased range, that's an upgrade. So lets say a 4ah cell in the 18650 form factor, same number of cells, same pack dimensions, larger actual capacity and increased range. Wiring and circuitry need not change at all since the power in and out of the pack is controlled by the inverter and charger.
This = nail+head.
I dare anyone to go into BMW or Merc dealer/service and ask them to install a M or AMG engine into their standard 5 series or E-Class and see what they say. They will look at you stupid and point you to the showroom floor where you can buy an M or AMG badged car.
The change the OP is asking for is really handled in the aftermarket. There is nothing stopping you from buying the battery pack out of a crashed Model S or buying an aftermarket unit that can be installed in your car. Of course this will void any remaining warranty and place all liability on you (and what ever assurance or warranty offered by the manufacturer of the pack) but may be completely worth it to you. This is also dependent upon the aftermarket supporting and embracing the Model S and that only happens if there is enough of them sold and enough demand for that product.
hans
P631
Not likely. They would have to charge more because the 40kWh owner would be trading in a smaller battery than the 85kWh owners who buy the same replacement option. There is value in the "used" batteries, and there is more value in a used 85kWh pack than a used 40kWh pack.
As much as I'd love to see a 100kWh+ pack available as a future upgrade, and software aside, wouldn't there still be battery conditioning infrastructure (radiators/pumps?) limitations?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I wouldn't think so. The greater capacity has to fit in the same physical space, so the existing infrastructure should still be fine. Presumably newer chemistry will need less management anyway.
OT: but if you did that, they'd probably point you to Renntech/Kleeman/Dinan
Does anyone know if the drive inverters on all the non-performance models are the same? I'm assuming that battery upgrades also involve some battery control hardware which is built into the rest of the car, which will make upgrades difficult. I (very much) hope to be proven wrong though.
Chas F
Model S 60kWh #P6396
I believe the motor and inverters are the same for the non-performance models. I would expect only the programming of the inverter is different. All other differences would just be the firmware of the specific model, which is theoretically upgradeable.
that would be my guess too. hardware is probably the same on all standards, and it's probably just the software that's different.
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