Audi A8: Tesla killer

[jerry33]

plus another $200-$300 a year in maintenance (oil changes, urea fluid),

Make that 22 cent per mile over 95,000 miles.

plus the knowledge that modern day diesels don't last like they used to because of all the newfangled emissions stuff (particulate filters, urea injection systems, EGR) that will fail pretty much immediately out of warranty.

My TDI blew up at 80,000 miles. VW replaced mine under warranty and then handled future problems by lowering the warranty length--never again will I buy anything connected with VW.

 

[dirkhh]

My TDI blew up at 80,000 miles. VW replaced mine under warranty and then handled future problems by lowering the warranty length--never again will I buy anything connected with VW.

Charming.

Tesla: some freak accidents have caused fires. We give, to all owners, retroactively a pretty much unlimited warranty against fire accidents

VW: our engine broke after reasonable use and we had to replace it. Let's shorten the warranty period

 

[Reykjavik]

Who wants to drive 800 miles straight without stopping?

 

[jkliu47]

Maybe the Audi A8 comes with a portable bedpan?

 

[ckessel]

Who wants to drive 800 miles straight without stopping?

Indeed. And it always amuses me when an ICE advertises range. Mileage I can see advertising, but range? Who cares when an ICE has such a short refill time and gas stations are everywhere?

 

[joer00]

The A8 is an awesome car and makes me a proud German. BUT, the author of the article did not get it. NO ICE will ever be a Tesla killer, only another EV will !

Another thing he got wrong is the costs calculation. It is stupid to just calculate the battery depreciation. You have to calculate the whole cars depreciation. ANY luxury car so far is almost worthless after 10 years. Simply because rich people do not by used cars, and the ones who do can never afford the maintenance. I think we will see a big surprise with the MS used car prices. I would not be surprised if a MS sells for 40k after 10 YEARS and 200.000 miles. All what it needs might be a new battery which in ten years I doubt will be >10k (for a 85kw). So for 50k you get a rocket fast car which you can drive easily another 10 years. And after that 10 years it is worth 30k because now you get a new battery for 5k and the motor is still good for another 500.000 miles. And of course not to forget you have the latest software update

And last but not least, I think almost nobody was buying a MS because of the costs per mile. We all bought it because it is the biggest pleasure to drive. My MS replaced and A5. Loved Audi but will never go back until they have an equal EV.

 

[derekt75]

The A8 is an awesome car and makes me a proud German. BUT, the author of the article did not get it. NO ICE will ever be a Tesla killer, only another EV will !

Another thing he got wrong is the costs calculation. It is stupid to just calculate the battery depreciation. You have to calculate the whole cars depreciation. ANY luxury car so far is almost worthless after 10 years. Simply because rich people do not by used cars, and the ones who do can never afford the maintenance. I think we will see a big surprise with the MS used car prices. I would not be surprised if a MS sells for 40k after 10 YEARS and 200.000 miles. All what it needs might be a new battery which in ten years I doubt will be >10k (for a 85kw). So for 50k you get a rocket fast car which you can drive easily another 10 years. And after that 10 years it is worth 30k because now you get a new battery for 5k and the motor is still good for another 500.000 miles. And of course not to forget you have the latest software update

And last but not least, I think almost nobody was buying a MS because of the costs per mile. We all bought it because it is the biggest pleasure to drive. My MS replaced and A5. Loved Audi but will never go back until they have an equal EV.

Depreciation isn't just due to increased maintenance costs.
Depreciation is largely due to better cars coming out. In 10 years, I'm hoping that Tesla is manufacturing a car with similar range and performance to the Model S, can charge in less than 15 minutes, can safely drive itself on the freeway, has all kinds of sensors to avoid crashes, has 6G phone service, and sells for less than $60k (in 2014 dollars). If they do that, how much do you think you'll be able to get for your Model S that doesn't even have adaptive cruise control?

 

[sbronle1]

The A8 is an awesome car and makes me a proud German. BUT, the author of the article did not get it. NO ICE will ever be a Tesla killer, only another EV will !

Another thing he got wrong is the costs calculation. It is stupid to just calculate the battery depreciation. You have to calculate the whole cars depreciation. ANY luxury car so far is almost worthless after 10 years. Simply because rich people do not by used cars, and the ones who do can never afford the maintenance. I think we will see a big surprise with the MS used car prices. I would not be surprised if a MS sells for 40k after 10 YEARS and 200.000 miles. All what it needs might be a new battery which in ten years I doubt will be >10k (for a 85kw). So for 50k you get a rocket fast car which you can drive easily another 10 years. And after that 10 years it is worth 30k because now you get a new battery for 5k and the motor is still good for another 500.000 miles. And of course not to forget you have the latest software update

And last but not least, I think almost nobody was buying a MS because of the costs per mile. We all bought it because it is the biggest pleasure to drive. My MS replaced and A5. Loved Audi but will never go back until they have an equal EV.

Totally agree with this. I tell my friends that this car is ten years ahead of all others. Drives like a luxury sedan, handles like a turbo Porche without any noise, and has incredibly low maintenance. Not to mention the car can update and improve via the internet. Beat that General Motors! Ford might, but like I said it will take ten years...

 

[ckessel]

And last but not least, I think almost nobody was buying a MS because of the costs per mile.

Because of costs per mile? Well, no, though there's rarely one factor in buying a car. But it was a major part of the equation because it brought the TCO down into the "very expensive, but manageable".

 

[tezco]

He also forgot to mention that in Boulder during a cold snap last winter, all of the Audi TDI's parked outside in the -20 F cold ended up being towed back to the dealer since they wouldn't start. (My old A8 went there too, because a compression fitting on the fuel line shrank and gas was pouring on top of the engine. Guess what--Audi no longer stocked the part, so a very expensive custom one had to be built. No wonder these luxury automobiles are fully depreciated in 10 years.)

 

[qwk]

Depreciation isn't just due to increased maintenance costs.
Depreciation is largely due to better cars coming out. In 10 years, I'm hoping that Tesla is manufacturing a car with similar range and performance to the Model S, can charge in less than 15 minutes, can safely drive itself on the freeway, has all kinds of sensors to avoid crashes, has 6G phone service, and sells for less than $60k (in 2014 dollars). If they do that, how much do you think you'll be able to get for your Model S that doesn't even have adaptive cruise control?

You forgot to take all of the much more obsolete ICE cars(that are still being produced) into account. The Model S is decades ahead of every current ICE vehicle.

 

[Just a Reader]

...I would not be surprised if a MS sells for 40k after 10 YEARS and 200.000 miles. All what it needs might be a new battery which in ten years I doubt will be >10k (for a 85kw). So for 50k you get a rocket fast car which you can drive easily another 10 years. And after that 10 years it is worth 30k because now you get a new battery for 5k and the motor is still good for another 500.000 miles. And of course not to forget you have the latest software update ..

I really don't see what that is based on except for wishful thinking. The prices for used Teslas will depend on their reliability and the availability of reasonably priced spare parts and service centers. The Tesla has to prove that it is as reliable as a conventional car first. Looking at the Edmunds long term test car and at all the cars with new drive trains / batteries in this forum I do have my doubts about that. Right now I would consider buying a used and out-of-warranty Tesla as a financial gamble. As to the prices Tesla will charge for spare parts that's anyone's guess.

 

[ckessel]

I would not be surprised if a MS sells for 40k after 10 YEARS and 200.000 miles.

I'd be pretty shocked. Not because other vendors will have something (they might), but because Tesla's own advances will have rendered today's Model S horribly antiquated by then. You'd be far better of spending the 40k on a new Tesla.

Somewhere there was a thread about trading the S in for a Gen3. If I could trade my 4 year old P85 straight across for the similar top end Gen3, I probably would, but I seriously doubt they'll even be close in value.

 

[green1]

The dream of a car that doesn't depreciate (or depreciates extremely slowly) goes hand in hand with the nightmare of an auto company that never advances.
The only way a used car appears to be worth as much as a new one is if the new one doesn't have anything better to offer over it's older counterpart.

Elon expected the Model S to depreciate at approximately the same rate as a Mercedes S class. I have not seen any compelling reason why it would not. (It's too early to tell so far, but we appear to be on track with 2 year old Model S cars selling for a significant discount over their new prices)

 

[Red Sage]

Below are my responses to this article:

"The overall luxury and interior comfort of the Audi A8 is to the Tesla (TSLA) Model S what Buckingham Palace is to a Burger King (BKW)."

Wow. Just... Wow. I almost stopped reading there. It was bad enough that he claims to be using 'real world' numbers, that he generated himself, in a single day of driving, instead of the combined EPA mileage and range -- which is used by the Tesla Model S -- as a measuring stick.

"In an electric car, you also have the unique component of a big battery, which loses meaningful capacity every year, unlike an internal combustion engine."

OMG. Somebody hold me back... So I don't get a rope. This guy goes on to presume a $2000 per year depreciation penalty on the Tesla Model S -- as if the AUDI will NEVER have any depreciation at all over its ownership period.

"As a result, it goes without saying that Audi isn't worried about competition from Tesla."

If 'it goes without saying', then 1) why did you base your entire article on a comparison of AUDI and Tesla products; 2) why are you saying it anyway; and 3) why has every iteration of the AUDI A8 been outsold by the Tesla Model S for the past two years straight?

"Ability to fuel almost anywhere at the drop of a hat."

There are millions of electrical outlets in the United States of America alone -- far outnumbering diesel pumps.

"When it's cold outside, you can be warm without sacrificing range."

Total [BORSHT] -- because you can't run the heater in an ICE without the engine burning fuel. The heater in the Tesla Model S is multitudes more efficient than in any ICE.

"In my analysis, the advantages of this 2015 Audi A8 diesel vastly outweigh..."

No. Your 'analysis' is slanted, canted, and weighted by inaccurate information to present the foregone conclusion that you decided upon when you came up with the title for this POS article.

Wanna do a real world test? Fill up the AUDI once at the beginning of the month. Take it home, drive it around town until it runs empty. Then take a Tesla Model S home. Plug it in when you go to bed. Wake up to a full tank every morning. Drive the entire month without going to a filling station even once. That is the Real World Advantage of the Tesla Model S. You [FOXTROT] moron.

one percenter wrote, "Its a Tesla killer if you ignore that its a LIMO, costs more, performs less, has much much higher maintanence costs, and if you prefer to wear diapers for your 868-mile commute."

Yeah... another series of points I forgot to mention in my own diatribe against the article:

- He completely overlooks that at the beginning of the world domination of the internal combustion engine, they all had horrible range compared to today's Tesla Motors products.
- He thoroughly ignores that in the past 40 years, any ICE vehicle that had the performance statistics to match a Tesla Model S was a verifiable gas guzzler and typically didn't seat five to seven people.
- He doesn't mention at all that among direct competitors in the market, the only one that has consistently had a cruising range over 400 miles for the past 25 years is the Lexus LS.
- He also doesn't note that what this diesel powered AUDI will actually do is kill sales of the BMW 7-Series and Mercedes-Benz S-Class vehicles that have barely managed to average a 350 mile range for the past five years.
- He also doesn't consider for a moment that by 2017-2020 improved battery technology will very likely allow the Tesla Model S to be offered with a 150 kWh or higher battery capacity, to give it a cruising range that exceeds the current leader in the segment, Lexus LS 600h, which only has an EPA range of 466 miles.

I actually expect that within ten years the usable range of a Tesla Motors vehicle will be so high that people will wonder why the auto industry ever bothered with Diesel or Hybrid solutions.

According to JB Straubel, the energy storage capacity per lithium ion cell doubles roughly every 8-10 years. I doubt that can honestly be said about either a liter or gallon of gasoline or diesel. Over time it will take fewer and fewer 18650 battery cells to achieve 85 kWh of capacity. Similarly, the same quantity of battery cells used today will eventually be able to provide 170 kWh, and then 340 kWh. What will Naysayers tell us about the range of electric cars then?

 

[derekt75]

You forgot to take all of the much more obsolete ICE cars(that are still being produced) into account. The Model S is decades ahead of every current ICE vehicle.

I don't think I forgot to account for something.
I think that those that think that Model S won't depreciate significantly over 10 years aren't accounting for the rapid innovation in the auto industry, of which Tesla is a major component.
I'm not saying that a BMW M5 won't depreciate as fast as a Model S; I'm saying that all 2014 cars are going to be worth significantly less than the 2024 Tesla Model whatever that can essentially drive itself, can charge several times faster, and has the same range and performance as a P85 for $60k.

Buying a car is like buying a computer: it's going to depreciate. not because maintenance costs are going up, but because cars in 10 years will be so much better than today's cars.

 

[qwk]

I think that those that think that Model S won't depreciate significantly over 10 years aren't accounting for the rapid innovation in the auto industry,

100+ years of burning fossil fuels is hardly rapid innovation, especially when you factor in that electric cars were here 100 years ago. Face it, the auto industry is about as stagnant as it gets in business. Most of the current players are about to go extinct.

 

[derekt75]

100+ years of burning fossil fuels is hardly rapid innovation, especially when you factor in that electric cars were here 100 years ago. Face it, the auto industry is about as stagnant as it gets in business. Most of the current players are about to go extinct.

Maybe innovation has been slow. Not much seemed to happen for a couple decades. Gas mileage got better and A/C and power locks/windows became standard, but not much else. I think the last few years have been far more revolutionary. There's pretty much only one $60k+ car that folks buy that doesn't have some kind of collision avoidance sensors and adaptive cruise control. I suppose the fact that many of us bought that car shows that we don't think it's that important to us, but I think it's the start of an important revolution in car technology. Tesla is leading another revolution in car technology. I think 2024 cars will be substantially superior to 2014 cars, and this will be reflected in the lousy resale value of 2014 cars.

 

[green1]

And yet, with "no innovation" we have cars today that are many times safer than they were 20 years ago, burn less fuel (though admittedly still too much), and have many features nobody even dreamed of. They are also much quieter, have better manufacturing tolerances, etc.

The only way the Tesla would retain it's value is if Tesla stopped all innovation today. If Tesla can't come up with a better model in the next 10 years, then the current ones may not depreciate much, but I wouldn't bet on Tesla staying still!

Of course that also doesn't take in to account normal wear and tear, a 10 year old Tesla, like any product of that age, will have wear, the seats will be more worn, along with the interior panels, and the steering wheel, the floor mats will be a bit more thread-bare, the paint will have rock chips, door dings, and scratches, the steering won't be quite as tight, the suspension won't be as firm, the battery will loose some capacity (how much is open to debate, but it will loose something over 10 years, even if it's just a few percent)
That's not to say it won't still be an amazing car, but nobody will pay the same for a several year old car as a new one will cost, and nobody will pay as much for a 10 year old car as they can pay for a 5 year old car of the same model.

 

[roblab]

That's not to say it won't still be an amazing car, but nobody will pay the same for a several year old car as a new one will cost, and nobody will pay as much for a 10 year old car as they can pay for a 5 year old car of the same model.

Well, you never know. There are collectors, there are people with money, there are crazy people. I sold my RAV4EV for twice what I paid for it, six years and 60,000 miles later, no plans to sell it, no ads. I was contacted by a person who wanted a rare RAV4EV.

Now I own VIN 64, with a rare factory custom paint job, that still looks new. Who's to say someone won't want to buy it for a ridiculous price when I'm ready for my Gen III, GenX III or Roadster III? Of course, for the average run of the mill Model S, you might be right.

I just wouldn't say "nobody". Maybe nobody in their right mind....