Articles re Tesla—Fact or Fiction?

[Drax7]

Almost every article printed on tesla in the general media is sour.

Always sour. Sour to the core , they love sour, tesla equals sour .
Sour because they missed the most important auto trend in their
lifetimes, right under their noses.

And if and when they are not sour, it's because a tesla killer is in the works,
And then sweet revenge is around the corner. When that too fails,
more sour.

The stock shorts are beyond sour, they are plain bitter ,
and double down on desperate bitterness every time tesla wins.
Desperate people do desperate things.

Not surprised this sag harbor hedge fund gets his sour/ bitter FUD opinion published
on CNBC.

 

[Robert.Boston]

It would be interesting to run an experiment: take a neutral article on Tesla, then rewrite to have (a) a negative spin and (b) a positive spin. Put the two articles on different but similarly prominent websites. Which article gets more clicks? My bet is the negative one, 2:1.

 

[purplewalt]

It would be interesting to run an experiment: take a neutral article on Tesla, then rewrite to have (a) a negative spin and (b) a positive spin. Put the two articles on different but similarly prominent websites. Which article gets more clicks? My bet is the negative one, 2:1.

Probably more like 8 to 1 (negative one wins in a landslide).

Bad things that happen is news, and most news stations go out of their way to create and advocate some sort of conflict so they can report on it.
News that interests people are the negative things: the plane wrecks, the car accidents, the divorces.
("If it bleeds, it Leads" at most local news stations)
People enjoy weddings, births and graduations (the blessings), but they inherently (curious nature) look to see the unusual, the bridge that failed, the hurricane and ensuing flood.

Seems like, TSLA goes up $10 bucks in a day, nobody cares, it's a blip on the radar.
TSLA loses $10 in a day: the shorts beat their chest and say "I told you so"... ... "the stock is completely overvalued".

News shows/articles are scripted to the lowest common denominator, not the Rhodes Scholars.

 

[JRP3]

A very weak article about the "risks" of the Model 3, with no comment section and no obvious way to contact the author.
http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...del-3-could-fail.aspx?source=eogyholnk0000001

 

[tinm]

A very weak article about the "risks" of the Model 3, with no comment section and no obvious way to contact the author.
http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...del-3-could-fail.aspx?source=eogyholnk0000001

When in doubt, type "[author's name] twitter" into Google. Presto, author's Twitter account: https://twitter.com/adamllw

 

[chickensevil]

A very weak article about the "risks" of the Model 3, with no comment section and no obvious way to contact the author.
http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...del-3-could-fail.aspx?source=eogyholnk0000001

Common misconception:

In addition, the $7,500 federal tax credit won't last long unless the U.S. government changes the rules. As it stands, the credit will phase out quickly beginning two quarters after a manufacturer reaches cumulative sales of 200,000 electric vehicles or plug-in hybrids.

This is much farther out than the author makes it sound. That is cumulative US sales only. Currently Tesla's NA sales has accounted for about 50% of its market. This means we are somewhere closer to 30k total sales in the US so far. Even with the huge ramps expected on the Model S and Model X we *might* be coming in close to 100k in the US by the end of 2017... but maybe not... So that is at least the first couple of years of Model 3 sales to get the credit.

To the comments about the price point, I really think Tesla has now learned from the 40 and 60 Model S and will likely release a much nice "bare bones" Model 3. At the very least putting it closer on par with a "bare bones" BMW 3 series. That means 2 base color choices, faux leather seating, ~18" wheels, steering wheel controls, USB connections, Bluetooth, TouchScreen Center console, basic driver profiles, Rain sensing windshield and automatic headlights... and so on.

Assuming this link works: Standard Features


That is the standard BMW 3 Series features with a starting price of ~32,000 with a 0-60 time of 6.6 seconds. This really isn't a high bar for Tesla to hit. Even the higher end BMW 328/335 are only clocking around 5 second 0-60 times. I fully expect their top of the line Model 3 to go head to head with the M3 Sedan which clocks in around 3.8-4.0 seconds which starts at 62,000$

Why do I go through great lengths on the BMW 3 series? Because it is currently the largest seller in it's class of luxury vehicles and is specifically what Tesla has said they are targeting. Interestingly enough, if you pick an M3 and max out just about everything on the car, you are looking at paying over 90k for the car... food for thought.

 

[Johan]

Common misconception:

This is much farther out than the author makes it sound. That is cumulative US sales only. Currently Tesla's NA sales has accounted for about 50% of its market. This means we are somewhere closer to 30k total sales in the US so far. Even with the huge ramps expected on the Model S and Model X we *might* be coming in close to 100k in the US by the end of 2017... but maybe not... So that is at least the first couple of years of Model 3 sales to get the credit.

To the comments about the price point, I really think Tesla has now learned from the 40 and 60 Model S and will likely release a much nice "bare bones" Model 3. At the very least putting it closer on par with a "bare bones" BMW 3 series. That means 2 base color choices, faux leather seating, ~18" wheels, steering wheel controls, USB connections, Bluetooth, TouchScreen Center console, basic driver profiles, Rain sensing windshield and automatic headlights... and so on.

Assuming this link works: Standard Features


That is the standard BMW 3 Series features with a starting price of ~32,000 with a 0-60 time of 6.6 seconds. This really isn't a high bar for Tesla to hit. Even the higher end BMW 328/335 are only clocking around 5 second 0-60 times. I fully expect their top of the line Model 3 to go head to head with the M3 Sedan which clocks in around 3.8-4.0 seconds which starts at 62,000$

Why do I go through great lengths on the BMW 3 series? Because it is currently the largest seller in it's class of luxury vehicles and is specifically what Tesla has said they are targeting. Interestingly enough, if you pick an M3 and max out just about everything on the car, you are looking at paying over 90k for the car... food for thought.

I agree we should be looking, like you just did, very closely at the performance, metrics, pricing, options, base model of BMW 3-Series. Then we know exactly where Tesla is setting the bar. Beat on each of these, all of them, and you have and absolute winner. You don't have to beat by a lot, just enough.

They've been talking 3-series for so long now.

Imagine: Tesla Gen 3 base model: has some more features, is a bit quicker and costs the same as BMW 3-Series base (but much lower lifetime fuel costs will be the obvious kicker).

Tesla Gen 3 top model: beats M3 by 0.3 seconds 0-60, has just as advanced features, looks as fierce, but costs $5k less.

They'll steal the entire 3-series (from 316i to M3) market if they had the capacity to deliver that many cars. Luckily for BMW and the others they don't but they'll sell every dam car they can build for years just for taking 10-20% of this market strata.

 

[atang]

A very weak article about the "risks" of the Model 3, with no comment section and no obvious way to contact the author.
http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...del-3-could-fail.aspx?source=eogyholnk0000001

we must find another way, come on team!
Well

- - - Updated - - -

When in doubt, type "[author's name] twitter" into Google. Presto, author's Twitter account: https://twitter.com/adamllw

There is a way then, good call team mate!

 

[JRP3]

Same article picked up by Money http://time.com/money/3946821/tesla-model-3-fail/

 

[EldestOyster]

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) To Charge For Recharging Service Business Finance News

...in China.

...for non-Teslas.

Now, that's what I call "news"! :wink:

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) To Charge For Recharging Service Business Finance News

...in China.

...for non-Teslas.

Now, that's what I call "news"! :wink:

It's a quite sensible move that could provide a good source of income to Tesla Motors. For some reason the editor seems to have wanted to post a misleading headline, despite the article's author nicely laying out the facts. Negatives are more attention grabbing and cause no second thoughts for editors and publishers when a non-advertiser is the subject.

 

[SteveG3]

Same article picked up by Money http://time.com/money/3946821/tesla-model-3-fail/

Indeed, but this time with a comments section, though you have to look for it a bit.

 

[chickensevil]

Indeed, but this time with a comments section, though you have to look for it a bit.

Which I totally copied out my rebuttal from here to paste in the comments

 

[jhm]

Nice we're keeping Model 3 Fail articles here so we can remind the authors and their readers when the Model 3 blows away the market.

 

[SteveG3]

Nice we're keeping Model 3 Fail articles here so we can remind the authors and their readers when the Model 3 blows away the market.

Funny you mention this JHM. For a few days I've been thinking of starting a thread where we actually catalog all the bear themes of the past several years that have shown themselves to be enormously off from reality (and hard to imagine anyone could have sincerely believed). The first comment would be a live list of all of these FUD themes of times past while the thread itself would be a way of tapping our collective memory of what these themes were. While for those of us who follow Tesla quite closely, it's obvious that there's an active FUD effort, and most of its lobs are immediately transparently false to us, to those less familiar with Tesla I think the catalog at the start of such a thread would really help see current FUD in perspective. We could even mention the thread in the comments of current FUD articles.

 

[jhm]

Funny you mention this JHM. For a few days I've been thinking of starting a thread where we actually catalog all the bear themes of the past several years that have shown themselves to be enormously off from reality (and hard to imagine anyone could have sincerely believed). The first comment would be a live list of all of these FUD themes of times past while the thread itself would be a way of tapping our collective memory of what these themes were. While for those of us who follow Tesla quite closely, it's obvious that there's an active FUD effort, and most of its lobs are immediately transparently false to us, to those less familiar with Tesla I think the catalog at the start of such a thread would really help see current FUD in perspective. We could even mention the thread in the comments of current FUD articles.

You may just earn yourself a PhD in FUDology. Good luck!

So what's the oldest FUD in the book? I'm thinking, no one will buy it, but the competion will eat your lunch.

 

[SteveG3]

You may just earn yourself a PhD in FUDology. Good luck!

So what's the oldest FUD in the book? I'm thinking, no one will buy it, but the competion will eat your lunch.

Good question JHM. I first really started paying attention in mid 2012. Though both more reasonable than flat out FUD, it's kind of funny that at the time, the ~25% short position that's still with us today, was discussed as evidence of the grave risk of bankruptcy, and Tesla and Fisker could be seen in some articles coupled as if they were peers in trying to find a place in the future... actually less silly than a few articles I saw that apparently discuss Tesla's vehicles and Toyota's Mirai as peers in trying to find a place in the future (to be fair, I'm somewhat guessing from the headlines as I did not read those articles today).

 

[ChadS]

From ~2008, the FUD themes I remember included:

1. no one will buy them, ever
2. they are slow
3. they are not safe
4. you will be stranded on the side of the road
5. they are ugly
6. they don't work in the cold
7. they can't go up hills
8. they run out of charge without any warning
9. you have to replace the batteries every 2-3 years

While some of those are still around, it's nothing like it used to be. The themes have changed a lot, and now we get things more like:

1. nobody else (other than current owners) will buy them until they have x miles of range and can recharge in y minutes
2. they are toys for the rich, not really driven
3. they are not really green
4. Tesla will go under trying to release (whatever the next product is)
5. My tax dollars shouldn't pay for this (I want my tax dollars to keep funding petroleum instead)

 

[EnergyMax]

IHS Automotive forecasts that if Tesla can get the car to market, it will likely sell at least a few thousand.

But the idea that Tesla could sell tens of thousands of Model S sedans in the U.S. is folly.

One of my favorites
2012 Tesla Model S Electric Sedan: Industry Analyst Weighs In

 

[Hogfighter]

One of my favorites
2012 Tesla Model S Electric Sedan: Industry Analyst Weighs In

This was an oldie but a goodie. The critical fact that is often misconstrued when comparing MS sales to S class, 7 series, or similar types is that there are so many other ICE cars of similar branding and price points. Think BMW 6 series, Mercedes CLS, Lexus F, maxed-out E class, M-series, etc. The luxury car market is much bigger than most writers realize.