Articles re Tesla—Fact or Fiction?

[JRP3]

AZC....can you provide a link to your article. Not sure what you are referencing.

He's probably referencing his last article on Seeking Alpha. AZC = Alberto Zaragoza Comendador

 

[Curt Renz]

Here's more FUD from perennial Tesla Motors short seller Sean Williams within his article today for The Motley Fool: The Worst Stocks for a Stock Market Crash

Or two months ago: Barclay's Hits the Brakes on Tesla Motors

And fourteen months ago: Tesla Motors: 5 Things I Hate About You

Or eighteen months ago: Tesla Rolls a Million Dollar Car off its Assembly Line

It's amazing that The Motley Fool keeps paying its writer to repeatedly spew the same FUD, especially considering that The Motley Fool owns and recommends shares of Tesla Motors.

 

[EldestOyster]

One nice thing about repetitive articles is that the author doesn't need to get new pictures. Or much new material. I especially like this one:

Tesla has next to no knowledge of the battery production process

Rather than roll my eyes, I'll attempt a few counter arguments. One, Tesla's CTO (Straubel) and CEO (Musk) are both pretty bright guys. They may be able to figure out how batteries are made. Two, they have until 2017 to work out the details. And three, they are partnered with a company (Panasonic) that has been manufacturing cells (and in particular, Tesla's cells) for quite a long while.

 

[Ugliest1]

If you're interested you should check out the comments to the article I linked above. The author makes some very bold claims:

Elon Musk is the P.T. Barnum of the Tesla circus - The Globe and Mail

The author goes by Jbc22 in the comments section.

He is just clueless. Please note this claim, which is bordering on libel: The evidence suggests that company is not being entirely truthful about its sales and production, and so-called production constraints.

Johan, thanks for your several attempts at refuting the idiocy in that article. I couldn't help myself, I had to add a comment to it as well:

From one of Cato's comments: "In almost all cases, the comments below do not address the facts."

On the contrary, several commenters do correct the various misrepresentations that Cato presented. Cato's response: "Your accusation is not only ignorant, but libelous. That said, as usual -- and like all the others in the comments section -- you are not addressing the facts, but instead attacking the messenger."

Rather than waste my time re-correcting what others have so ably done, I'll pick one statement within Cato's comments that I think is ridiculous, when one considers the FACTS: "The cars have been plagued with problems, the ones that don’t catch on fyre." This is a misrepresentation because, yes, some cars have had things that needed to be repaired, just like all automakers, however Tesla's service departments have done a stellar job getting the fixes completed. Check the recent Consumer Reports survey where Tesla scored the highest out of anyone, other automakers AND dealerships for owner satisfaction on service and repair: "The one automaker that outscored the independent shops was the electric carmaker Tesla, which earned high praise for its on-time repairs, courtesy, price, quality, and overall satisfaction." See, Cato: I'm arguing with FACTS (Best Places to Get Your Car Repaired - Consumer Reports).

The second part of Cato's comment "the ones that don't catch fyre", let's look at the FACTS there. Another poster has responded with the FACT that 150,000+ ICE cars catch fyre EACH YEAR, resulting on average in 200+ deaths (repeat: that's a FACT, Mr. Cato). Tesla, on the other hand, had three fyres in October 2013 (none since), all the result of accidents. In two of the three, after the battery was pierced by large debris from the highway in separate incidents, the car warned the occupants that there was a problem, to pull over safely and exit the vehicle, which they respectively did. In one of those cases, the fyre started because the fyre department mistakenly ripped open the battery shielding from the top, allowing the frunk upholstery to catch fyre from the dissipating heat. The third accident was a drunken spree in Mexico that sent the car at over 100 mph over a curb and through a concrete barrier; all occupants were filming getting out, laughing, and running away, then several minutes later the car caught fyre. THAT'S IT, Mr. Cato, 3 fyres, all of them coincidentally happening in October 2013. So, "the ones that don't catch fyre" is a pretty clear misrepresentation.

To conclude, I've seen your byline in my local paper in the past. I don't know if I've read any of the earlier articles because I'm not usually interested in car reviews, except for specific ones. But I certainly know I won't be reading any of yours in the future: when I want to read fiction I'll pick up a book, or maybe a dealership ad. It's a mystery to me how the G&M allowed such a weak piece to be published.

 

[atang]

+1,000 ! Great Job @Johan and @Ugliest1 :smile:

 

[JRP3]

To be accurate the stolen Model S that split in half also had an "extreme heat incident."

 

[Ugliest1]

To be accurate the stolen Model S that split in half also had an "extreme heat incident."

Uhhhhh, true, forgot about that one. Not to worry, sounds like Mr.C doesn't do any research of any sort anyway.

 

[sundaymorning]

+1,000 ! Great Job @Johan and @Ugliest1 :smile:

Ditto to that.

 

[austinEV]

He's probably referencing his last article on Seeking Alpha. AZC = Alberto Zaragoza Comendador

Or this site: Doubting is thinking: Whopperpedia: the Ultimate Guide to Teslagate

- - - Updated - - -

To be accurate the stolen Model S that split in half also had an "extreme heat incident."

I think the whole world got together on that one to conclude that wrapping a car around a lightpole due to driving at high speed away from the scene of a crime is going to go poorly for any make and model.

 

[yesla]

I just read about FluxCap's car.

Tiny 40-Year-Old Electric Car Now As Fast As Tesla Roadster

 

[FluxCap]

I just read about FluxCap's car.

Tiny 40-Year-Old Electric Car Now As Fast As Tesla Roadster

You found me! (Kidding, that's not me, but I love it).

:biggrin:

 

[yesla]

Lol. Thought you might enjoy it.

 

[Johan]

WSJ is at it again. Conspicously dropping this article (in fact under blogs.wsj.com) suggesting that Tesla is reducing guidance for full year of 2015 from 55k to 50k cars.

Elon Musk Takes Uncustomary Humble Tone for Teslas Sales - Corporate Intelligence - WSJ

The article in turn references and interview Musk did with Nikkei Asian Review:

Interview with Teslas Elon Musk : Infrastructure key to adoption of electric vehicles- Nikkei Asian Review

in which the following is said:

Q: Can the Model 3 have a big impact on the Japanese market, where the average car still dominates?

​

A: I think the Model 3 is likely to have a big impact in every market. The Model S is a premium car. It's a very full-featured car. It's meant to be a technology leader, with things like advanced autopilot capability. It's in the class, in a way, of a Mercedes S-class or a BMW 7-series, as well as an Audi A8 or A7. The Model 3 is closer to an Audi A4 or BMW 3-series.
But I still think even the Model S is going to do fairly well in Japan. We are seeing steady growth in sales. We are planning to make a big investment in charging infrastructure as well as servicing capability throughout Japan. So you will be able to use the car anywhere in Japan.

We're making a strong long-term commitment to the Japanese market. We really believe in it. But we do think it's something that takes time to build. So, we have to have patience and grow it over time.

I do want to super-emphasize to potential customers that we are very committed, long term, to the market in Japan and making sure they have an amazing experience. We don't have supergrand ambitions. It's not like we expect to be, like, the leading seller or even remotely close to that.

If you look at our sales last year, worldwide, it was only about 32,000 cars. That was for the entire world. And this year, maybe, we'll be a little bit above 50,000 cars. So, we're only talking a few thousand cars here. It's not a huge number. The Model S will continue to be a very exclusive, special, car, but I do want to make sure people know that we are going to be absolutely supportive of any customers in Japan.

They shouldn't have such worries as, "Is there going to be support or charging capability?" We're going to make sure that we invest whatever it takes in order to have people in Japan have a great experience.

As for the charging infrastructure, we're also going to make sure that all of our charging stations are either directly or indirectly solar powered. We'll buy utility power that's coming from solar panels, or we'll have solar panels on the charge station itself. There will be no impact to the electrical grid in Japan. And the supercharging stations for Tesla are always free.

(My italics)

So... is this a scoop by WSJ??? Or something taken completely out of context to try to manipulate the stock the day before ER? Make up your own mind...

 

[ZenMan]

Johan,

This is great work. Thanks for posting this!

Can you cross post in the short-term thread? A lot people don't read this thread.

 

[woof]

When I first saw the "50,000 cars" number, I thought it was a hint at a guidance reduction. However, after some reflection, I wonder if the 50K means "50K Models S", still leaving 5K Models X to reach 55K delivered overall in 2015.

 

[ecarfan]

Elon is simply making the point that in the world of auto manufacturing Tesla is a drop in the bucket. I would not read anything more into the numbers he mentions than that.

 

[Gerardf]

Elon is simply making the point that in the world of auto manufacturing Tesla is a drop in the bucket. I would not read anything more into the numbers he mentions than that.

Indeed. Also take into account that he made these statements in Japan, a country very proud on its industrial succes. No place for Elon to start bragging how Tesla will do better than Toyota.

Actually the WSJ piece uses the word humble, seems to me Elon hit the correct tone considering Japanese culture.

 

[JRP3]

When I first saw the "50,000 cars" number, I thought it was a hint at a guidance reduction. However, after some reflection, I wonder if the 50K means "50K Models S", still leaving 5K Models X to reach 55K delivered overall in 2015.

That was for the entire world. And this year, maybe, we'll be a little bit above 50,000 cars. So, we're only talking a few thousand cars here. It's not a huge number. The Model S will continue to be a very exclusive, special, car, but I do want to make sure people know that we are going to be absolutely supportive of any customers in Japan.

I would say so.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Why you shouldn’t let the herd mentality talk you out of Tesla - MarketWatch

 

[austinEV]

Good article from Daniel Sparks:

Tesla Motors, Inc. Earnings: 3 Questions for Elon Musk (TSLA)


Summary if you don't want to click:
1) how is china demand?
2) Is Model X on scedule?
3) Will they deploy their secret weapon for demand?

I would add:
1) demand for the powerwall/stationary storage?
2) battery supply situation? Are Powerwalls/storage products using Panasonic cells, or other others? Is Model S production still battery supply limited?
3) Why is Model S production low in 1H and much higher in 2H? 1Q production rate was not sufficient for 55k annualized.