With an EV, would the service intervals be based more on mileage than on time? My planned usage will be half the mileage they show for the time periods.
Some service items like fluid changes are called for after either time or miles. Other items such as cabin air filters likely don't have to be changed until they are dirty.
The bottom line is that if you do the Tesla scheduled maintenance it will probably cost you more over a 3-5 year period than it would cost to get normal service done on an ICE cars. ICE cars, even fancy German ones, don't need much in the way of service for the first 5 years of ownership.
EV maintenance cost savings would start to even out when you get into years 7,8,9,10 when an ICE car starts to need more expensive service items such as transmission fluid changes, valve timing adjustments and replacement of timing belts and other things.
If Model 3 has similar maintenance costs to Model S then after eight years you will have spent somewhere around $4000 on "maintenance" not including tires. The car will also have less range than it did when new.... perhaps down to about 85-90% of the range it originally did.
The hypothetical BMW needs service items in years 4-8 (first 3 years are covered) that owners would pay for out of pocket. Costs on those will vary but will be less than $4,000 unless something majorly goes wrong and of course on the Tesla there are also things that could fail out of warranty that would be out of pocket expenses... the super expensive NVIDIA computer and the electric motor come to mind as potential problem children.
One thing to keep in mind is that all of the above does not factor in the cost savings of electricity vs fuel. Unfortunately fuel prices are quite elastic and electricity prices only go up over time not down (to date) so that's a little harder to predict with any accuracy.
