Yes I really do believe so. Note that this pertains to
demand and that the actual shifting out of the entire fleet of personal cars will take quite some time, since the life cycle of cars are long and since it's a high capital investment for people. Electric cars are at this moment at the tipping point and in just 2-3 years we will be beyond the tipping point. What right now looks like slow, gradual, linear growth in demand and uptake is actually the bottom part of an exponential curve, but this is both hard to recognize early as well as hard for us humans to conceptualize (humans in general have a hard time grasping phenomena with exponential growth patterns, we like to think in linear terms intuitively).
You argument is very similar to how people historically have argued when it comes to smart phones, internet for personal use, ICE cars (100 years ago), personal computers, TV etc. etc: "Sure it's a new technology, it's good, it's useful, it's better than what we have today
but the uptake will be slow and gradual, it will takes decades before it becomes mainstream". Therein lies the fallacy.
View attachment 75171
(from
The Law of Accelerating Returns | KurzweilAI).
With EVs we also have a perfect storm forming: Global warming is a huge problem and EVs are part of the solution, large parts of the world's population (Asia, India, Africa) are experiencing unprecedented growth in income and quality of life and the personal transportatino market globally has enormous potential. All the while battery prices are coming down every year and production is increased, with it comes economies of scale that drives prices further down.
Believe me, I would be the happiest person in the world should your predictions become a reality!
But even though I can understand your enthusiasm, and I know that adoption curve well either, I don't think you can compare the use of mobile phones or the internet with BEVs. Why? Cost, simple as that. Mobile phone prices as well as costs for internet use have imploded in a very short time, making is viable for even the poorest parts of the population to use. I know lots of people who lament about high food prices, yet they all have mobile phones and internet, because both are almost free.
BEVs are not only hideously expensive at the moment, they have also not been getting cheaper each year, as had been predicted because it was said that cheaper batteries would make for cheaper BEVs. Look at the Model S as a prime example, it is getting more expensive every year. Look at the discussions about Model 3 pricing, whether it will truly make the 35K mark that Elon had given out as his goal. And even if, 35K (for a naked base model in particular) is still above and beyond what the majority of car buyers can afford.
For an exponential adoption curve to happen, especially if we compare BEVs to mobile phones or the internet, prices would have to come down significantly every year. Not happening, not even remotely, as least for now. And there is no miracle battery tech even on the horizon to make BEVs more affordable. Elon himself has often made comments about claims by others who said they had some revolutional new battery coming.
Electric cars are at this moment at the tipping point
What tipping point? Perhaps in Norway, but where else? Where in the world, apart from in countries that heavily subsidize BEVs, are sales anywhere near "tipping point", or even public awareness for BEVs?
Again, I truly hope BEVs will one day make up the overwhelming majority of vehicles on the streets (especially as we live next to a through-road with lots of traffic), but if I look realistically at most markets, and Germany in particular, I think it will take at least until I am retired (which will be several decades from now).
- - - Updated - - -
If you think electricity is expensive in Europe, wait until you see the bill at the gas station....
True, but if you look at the development over the past few years, then (at least here in Germany) electricity prices have exploded while gas/diesel has become only slightly more expensive than it already was. And electricity prices will continue to rise sharply over the coming years, at least for us thanks to special effects in the German alternative energy subsidy system, while the trend for gas/diesel is uncertain at the moment.
- - - Updated - - -
The prevalence of comments like this leads me to suppose that the German big three's sales are still predominantly in Germany and neighboring countries, since 250-300km/h is simply irrelevant for actual driving in most of the rest of the world. (It's not irrelevant for bragging rights I suppose, but I would imagine that to be a relatively minor purchasing factor for most people.) Is that right, that BMW et al are building vehicles primarily for the Autobahn for reasons dictated by their market, and competing in other markets (North America for example) is strictly an afterthought?
I'm sure I could go look up market shares and whatnot, but I bet there's someone reading this thread who knows off the top of their head if my assumption is right.
I think Spidy was exaggerating a bit, but what he surely meant was that BEVs at the moment aren't able to sustain longer stretches of higher speeds, say 70+ mph without draining the battery incredibly fast, while ICEs, even powerful ones, have become so fuel efficient over the years that they can.
- - - Updated - - -
My impression of the German market is that it is very protective of its domestic brands. There were close to no plug-in incentives until after the German plug-ins came out, and other non-German EVs haven't been doing that well in that market either. So I don't expect Tesla to get very far in that market.
Just for the record, there are still no real plug-in incentives over here, and the only one that exists will be halved from next year onwards. So even German-made plug-ins are given a hard time by the German government - even though they say otherwise (which no one believes anyway).