theganjaguru
Guru
I'd hope that Tesla could go the BMW route and use carbon fiber. I've been left very impressed with my i3.
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Olle
Active Member
would be interesting to learn the cost of mass produced CF for cars. Since I'm into biking and they usually come in either steel, alu or CF, I have noticed a pattern: steel=dirt cheap, alu=mid priced, Cf=very expensive
When you have had a few bikes you learn that the jump in strength/weight from steel to alu is huge, like double or more (Part of the explanation might be that steel bikes are slapped together with little finesse in the cheapest possible way, whereas alu bikes are generally better designed and manufactured)
The strength/weight jump from alu to CF is definitely there, but not as huge.
Then there is of course titanium bikes which seem to cost same as CF. Any chance the i3 could have been build with titanium instead? Any chance Tesla might consider it for the cars?
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Olle
Active Member
theganjaguru
Guru
Carbon fiber might not be as expensive as you presume. BMW has certainly found a way to make it economically viable. BMW i3 Teardown Reveals Profitability After Only 20,000 Cars - Gas 2
I asked about CF in this short lived thread:
Is a CF Model 3 frame possible?
Only a few responses, but some interesting info. Another point is that making the fibers is tricky, so the raw material won't be cheap anytime soon.
Is a CF Model 3 frame possible?
Only a few responses, but some interesting info. Another point is that making the fibers is tricky, so the raw material won't be cheap anytime soon.
Bangor Bob
Member
Carbon would be nice, but I suspect there isn't time to do it for the 3. Putting together a supply chain and manufacturing capability is reportedly a PITA.
That said, Fiberforge had something that looked like it could have worked for auto-industry-speed manufacturing, but so far has failed to attract much attention or investment. They were reportedly working with BMW a few years back but BMW went with a different process. (And like fellow RMI spinoff company Bright Automotive, seems to have shut down).
I wonder what happened to the patent portfolio... Hmmmm...
theganjaguru
Guru
Respectfully disagree. Amoy Lovins gives some great examples as to why carbon fiber is superior.
Amory Lovins: Carbon fiber cars would cut oil dependency - YouTube
Olle
Active Member
The article's author made a slight mistake in quoting Sandy Munro of Munro & Associates. He said the i3 would be profitable at 20k/year, not after the first 20k sold.
"At 20,000 vehicles per year, this car will be making money." Skip ahead to 4:18:
Yes, it's a nit, but it's an interesting video, too.
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An interview with Sandy Munro on the teardown. Haven't watched it yet (1 hr), but it might be interesting:
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Bangor Bob
Member
So a few interesting things there...
The BIG one: Tooling and equipment for a steel body-in-white costs $480m. BMW's tooling and equipment for the I3 BIW estimated to cost $150M-ish.
A couple others:
Cycle time for parts is a few minutes - can run at "automotive line" speed without need for bagging and autoclaves, etc.
The roof panel is made from stitched-together carbon offcuts and is still a class-A surface. Very little carbon waste..
Mounting "nubs" are molded in, very few fasteners are used.
Detroit doesn't care about the teardown report, but Chinese interest is near-constant...
It's an interesting watch if you get a free hour.
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Model3G
Member
I think overall Tesla has done nothing but work with aluminum bodies...if I'm not mistaken. Because of this, why would they do anything at all with steel? All of their battery ratings for range are done with Aluminum body styles. Manufacturing steel bodies are completely different range, speed, and safety dynamics to consider and would make for a lot more work than simply manufacturing a new car. If we are talking costs, wouldn't the major costs be with the battery packs?
eye.surgeon
Active Member
You think the annual sales volume of the M3 is going to equal the F150, the best selling vehicle in the US for decades? Not. A. Chance.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
To be fair the Model 3 number is world wide, the F150 is US only. F150 doesn't sell much outside the US, while Tesla expects half or more sales outside the USA.
As for the whole discussion, I suspect far more steel will be used for Model 3, but kind of torn on aluminum body and steel frame vs steel body and aluminum frame. The former is more common and costs less in structural damage cases, but the latter costs less for exterior damage (which are more common).
One of the most important elements of sustainable transport in my opinion is that the vehicle does not need thrown away after ~12 years. The world doesn't have the endless resources for that. Up here in the snow belt, many vehicles made ~12 years ago have rotted through body panels and an alarming amount of underbody rust. The 2000 Tahoe I used to own had so much rust on the frame and underbody that I couldn't stand to look underneath it anymore (pic of underbody and drive shaft below after just 13 years on the road). One of the biggest reasons I was willing to pay more for the Model S was the longevity factor of the all aluminum construction. I believe Model S resale value will remain incredibly high compared to the ICE steel construction cars. And, that aluminum is more environmentally friendly for this reason.
A large percentage of the cost of aluminum is derived from the energy cost of producing it. With the cost of energy so low now, I wonder if using aluminum is feasible now.
Yes, but you have to consider the 7-10 year lifetime of the car. Maybe energy is cheap now, but Tesla can choose to make the model 3 from aluminium now and be in trouble in 2-3 yers due to increased costs (Oil will be back in more than 100$/barrel soon)
I've just read an article explaining why that will not happen. Oil is gonna stay cheap for years to come.
I hope that but is very doubtful. I've read an article yesterday about a 40% price rising from Saudi Arabia in the next months. Time will tell.
Edit: Agence France-Presse on Twitter:
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