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About time to unveil the D and something else

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#601
I've read 56 pages of this thread - fun read! But one thing I've heard no-one address is the time of the unveiling - 7 PM. Sunset in LA on the 9th is 6:27 - Its going to be dark outside!


So there will definitely be no test drives of anything or AWD demo, I don't think. For that they would have selected a daytime conference on, say, a Saturday afternoon. It's going to be an inside show.


I'm still sticking with a Deluxe Trim S (with Driver Assist also) and an upgraded battery for the Roadster as the something else - maybe the first 500 mile EV?


With the garage door teasingly half way down, what could they be hiding? A converible - I highly doubt it - when they have to work on getting the X out, and it's too small a market for now for the effort involved. Maybe the forward mounted cameras for Driver Assist and possibly hiding improved seats / headrests that you'd be able to see?


If the something else were the X, would they have made a bigger deal of the announcement? Maybe also a daytime reveal so people could walk round, lift the hood, try the doors etc. And an afternoon would give more time. 7 PM isn't a good time IMHO to reveal the X. [EDIT: Hmmm .... maybe you wouldn't get much of a hands on with a beta X anyway, but I still don't think it's that. Elon has said we don't know everything they're working on and he didn't want to lay all his cards out. So that implies something substantial aside from the X.]


As I write I'm thinking just an upgraded trim even with Dr Ass isn't too big a deal and the D would have to include AWD as well as Deluxe interior. If it were ONLY AWD you wouldn't need to have the garage door half way down - the S would look the same from the front, wouldn't it?

So my final guess is Deluxe Trim with AWD and Driver Assist, and upgraded battery for the roadster!
 
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#602
The "something else" may be a pick-up truck. The former Tesla engineer who told me they were working on the AWD S supercar that would be released before the X (and said there would be no regular AWD S anytime soon) also told me they were working on a pick-up truck.
 
#603
AlMc said:
Great debate! I would add that I believe that ' on ramp to off ramp' means that once you enter the freeway and put the car in a lane and set the ACC that the car would be capable of taking you to your 'off ramp' vicinity with no further driver assistance. It would keep you in one lane, break and accelerate as needed to maintain your ACC setting.
Click to expand...

So that sounds like autonomous driving, but it's not. The driver still has to maintain 100% awareness of the road and changing traffic conditions, weather, road hazards, bad drivers, and emergencies. How do these systems respond if you're trailing someone via ACC with a safe distance in front of you, and some meatbag cuts directly in front of you leaving less than one car length? Does the ACC disengage? Or immediately slow down to provide a safe distance? What about the cars behind you?

I think there's a real danger here calling it "on-ramp to off-ramp" because too many people will equate that with "autonomous driving" and pay less attention to the road and get into more accidents because the DRIVER ASSIST can only do so much.

For instance, suppose you're happily driving along in ACC and lane mode ala "on-ramp to off-ramp", but the car in front of you quickly swerves out of the way of a huge 18-wheeler tire shard.. an ALERT human driver would be able to quickly guage what lanes (left/right) are clear, and also swerve out of the way taking the lead from the car in front. But Driver Assist? Would probably barrel right into the tire shard, causing at best major damage to the car or worst a major accident and loss of control.

Calling it "on-ramp to off-ramp" will lull some drivers into a false sense of security in that they can pay less attention to the road. But just calling it "Driver Assist" should not cause the same confusion.
 
#604
MilosK said:
I've read 56 pages of this thread - fun read! But one thing I've heard no-one address is the time of the unveiling - 7 PM. Sunset in LA on the 9th is 6:27 - Its going to be dark outside!


So there will definitely be no test drives of anything or AWD demo, I don't think. For that they would have selected a daytime conference on, say, a Saturday afternoon. It's going to be an inside show.


I'm still sticking with a Deluxe Trim S (with Driver Assist also) and an upgraded battery for the Roadster as the something else - maybe the first 500 mile EV?


With the garage door teasingly half way down, what could they be hiding? A converible - I highly doubt it - when they have to work on getting the X out, and it's too small a market for now for the effort involved. Maybe the forward mounted cameras for Driver Assist and possibly hiding improved seats / headrests that you'd be able to see?


If the something else were the X, would they have made a bigger deal of the announcement? Maybe also a daytime reveal so people could walk round, lift the hood, try the doors etc. And an afternoon would give more time. 7 PM isn't a good time IMHO to reveal the X.


As I write I'm thinking just an upgraded trim even with Dr Ass isn't too big a deal and the D would have to include AWD as well as Deluxe interior. If it were ONLY AWD you wouldn't need to have the garage door half way down - the S would look the same from the front, wouldn't it?

So my final guess is Deluxe Trim with AWD and Driver Assist, and upgraded battery for the roadster!
Click to expand...

I mentioned the evening time (after sunset) as a factor limiting any demos over in the short term investor thread earlier :), so agreed.

But my final guess...

1) Model S with AWD (deposits taken) & potentially some driver assist features, and,

2) Model X production version (no test drives).

Outlier guess: Early model of Model 3 as a bonus round.

Model X test drives will happen closer to delivery, just like with the S. But the X can be out on the floor to be ooh'd and ahh'd over. We know some have been built. We're close enough to the end of the year that something should be shown by now. Signature X reservation holders were on the first round of invites (which would not make sense if only about the Model S AWD).
 
#605
bonnie said:
I mentioned the evening time (after sunset) as a factor limiting any demos over in the short term investor thread earlier :), so agreed.

But my final guess...

1) Model S with AWD (deposits taken) & potentially some driver assist features, and,

2) Model X production version (no test drives).

Outlier guess: Early model of Model 3 as a bonus round.

Model X test drives will happen closer to delivery, just like with the S. But the X can be out on the floor to be ooh'd and ahh'd over. We know some have been built. We're close enough to the end of the year that something should be shown by now. Signature X reservation holders were on the first round of invites (which would not make sense if only about the Model S AWD).
Click to expand...

I hope you're right. I can't imagine any Model 3 news until next year with everything on Tesla's plate.
 
#607
Very few human drivers maintain 100% awareness of the road now, especially on the freeway. In the scenario you describe, the autonomous system (even with the sensors currently shipping on the Model S) is going to be much better. The side sensors are going to cause it to be aware of the car next to you, the camera is going to pick up the car swerving in front of you (probably quicker than a human, even one paying attention), and the system is certainly going to react more quickly than a human would.

Your scenario is not one where the autonomous system is going to be unable to respond, or unable to respond in a timely fashion.

A far more likely scenario which would cause a problem for the autonomous system would be a construction detour or a snow covered road. In that case, it most likely would cede control to the human driver, but it's not going to have to do so without some warning.

HankLloydRight said:
So that sounds like autonomous driving, but it's not. The driver still has to maintain 100% awareness of the road and changing traffic conditions, weather, road hazards, bad drivers, and emergencies. How do these systems respond if you're trailing someone via ACC with a safe distance in front of you, and some meatbag cuts directly in front of you leaving less than one car length? Does the ACC disengage? Or immediately slow down to provide a safe distance? What about the cars behind you?

I think there's a real danger here calling it "on-ramp to off-ramp" because too many people will equate that with "autonomous driving" and pay less attention to the road and get into more accidents because the DRIVER ASSIST can only do so much.

For instance, suppose you're happily driving along in ACC and lane mode ala "on-ramp to off-ramp", but the car in front of you quickly swerves out of the way of a huge 18-wheeler tire shard.. an ALERT human driver would be able to quickly guage what lanes (left/right) are clear, and also swerve out of the way taking the lead from the car in front. But Driver Assist? Would probably barrel right into the tire shard, causing at best major damage to the car or worst a major accident and loss of control.

Calling it "on-ramp to off-ramp" will lull some drivers into a false sense of security in that they can pay less attention to the road. But just calling it "Driver Assist" should not cause the same confusion.
Click to expand...
 
#608
donv said:
Very few human drivers maintain 100% awareness of the road now, especially on the freeway. In the scenario you describe, the autonomous system (even with the sensors currently shipping on the Model S) is going to be much better. The side sensors are going to cause it to be aware of the car next to you, the camera is going to pick up the car swerving in front of you (probably quicker than a human, even one paying attention), and the system is certainly going to react more quickly than a human would.

Your scenario is not one where the autonomous system is going to be unable to respond, or unable to respond in a timely fashion.

A far more likely scenario which would cause a problem for the autonomous system would be a construction detour or a snow covered road. In that case, it most likely would cede control to the human driver, but it's not going to have to do so without some warning.
Click to expand...

This is certainly the type of scenario that will make or break the viability of assisted or autonomous driving. But I think there is a big difference between 'could be much better' and "will be much better."

There are two experiences I have with the current car that cause me considerable doubt about where anyone is now, but specifically Tesla, with realizing the potential of these systems:

1) The simplest assisted-driving sensor-effector system in the car, centrally involved in safety, there since day one, still does not work effectively despite two years of software upgrades-- the windscreen wipers!!

2) My very first experience of using the traffic-based nav "improvements" in v6.0 in rush hour downtown Vancouver resulted in the system sending me off an (albeit slow-and-go) main avenue and into a residential side street infested with speed bumps and diverting roundabouts-- NOT faster!!

Rushing into more sensors and more algorithms and encouraging less attention by the driver while egregious algorithmic deficiencies like this are shipping with the product now, is more than a bit unsettling to me.
 
#610
brianman said:
We have evidence people already do that with cruise control, not even ACC just regular CC.
Click to expand...

Funny, I was going to post that same comment, but decided to do some research first to find a concrete example of just that.

I'm sure it's happened, and I'm sure it's happened plenty of times. But I can't find any documented case of it other than at Snopes:

http://www.snopes.com/autos/techno/cruise.asp
 
#613
donv said:
Your scenario is not one where the autonomous system is going to be unable to respond, or unable to respond in a timely fashion.
Click to expand...

I would need to see that before I believe it. There are so many variables to take into consideration when executing an emergency maneuver, there's no possible way, with current technology, to know those in advance, as well as compute the best course of action given all the inputs. Computers are good at a lot of things, but mimicking the human brain in an emergency situation traveling at 60mph is not one of them. Computers are only as good as what the programmers are able to teach it to see and predict.

I'll give you one concrete example that happened to me this summer. My g/f's 18 year old daughter (driving for 1 year) was driving me to the airport, on the highway, with moderate to heavy traffic. A few car lengths ahead of us (we were in the right lane), a large diamond shaped construction road sign had fallen into the road directly ahead of us, and was lying flat to the ground, with only the thin black metal legs sticking up. Luckily, she saw it in time to swerve to the right (into the shoulder of a on-ramp merging into the highway) to the point that the car was going to spin out.. but she quickly recovered and swerved the other way and then regained control of the car without hitting any other car or the road sign. We were very lucky, because if we hit that road sign, it would have either caused major damage to the car, or caused an even worse accident. In either of those two cases, I would have missed my flight.
Given the sign was laying mostly flat to the ground, and the black legs sticking straight up, I would bet large that any ACC/Driver Assist/AD sensor would have never have seen that road hazard, and would have barreled directly into it. But even just a driver with one year of driving experience was able to see it ahead, and swerve out of the way without accident or injury.

I see this playing itself out a lot on the highway when these systems get into widespread use, that they won't be able to handle all the random and unexpected inputs that they will face, causing more accidents than they prevent.
 
#614
bonnie said:
I mentioned the evening time (after sunset) as a factor limiting any demos over in the short term investor thread earlier :), so agreed.

But my final guess...

1) Model S with AWD (deposits taken) & potentially some driver assist features, and,

2) Model X production version (no test drives).

Outlier guess: Early model of Model 3 as a bonus round.

Model X test drives will happen closer to delivery, just like with the S. But the X can be out on the floor to be ooh'd and ahh'd over. We know some have been built. We're close enough to the end of the year that something should be shown by now. Signature X reservation holders were on the first round of invites (which would not make sense if only about the Model S AWD).
Click to expand...

I am inclined to think the 'something else' is a la Steve Jobs (and that the other letter is the 'X' and he's glad he didn't mention it to spoil his fun) and would agree with you on the X, but why show the S with the garage door half way up? AWD will look the same from the front. Unless there's a larger (taller) X behind it, that you might see.
 
#617
bonnie said:
Agreed. I think any Model 3 news is an outlier possibility.
Click to expand...

I dunno about that. If they are comfortable with where the X is in its lifecycle (and a Beta or prod prototype would signal that), then I see the bold move being to sneak peek a Model 3 prototype--keep the pressure up on the competition on all three fronts. A stunning Model 3 prototype is going to suck the oxygen out of the room for everyone else.

I keep coming back to the extra $100M in R&D they spent this year - that's way more then software R&D money, that's getting into new proto kind of money.
 
#618
Sorry, I just don't get it.

Autonomous, Driver Assist, whatever. I thought we bought this car because it is fun to drive it, and Tesla is the ultimate fun to drive. If I want something (someone) to take over, I might as well take a bus or a cab.

How will the auto-drive features affect that Tesla Grin? Give us something to widen that grin!!
 
#620
Invited to Telsa's ("D"?) Unveiling Oct. 9th

I got an invitation to RSVP this morning to attend a "Tesla Unveiling" at the Hawthorn Airport (near Los Angeles) on October 9th. Is the Tesla 3 now the Tesla "D"? Was everyone invited?


gjoubva-1.png
 
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