HankLloydRight
No Roads
I don't care how good Mobileeye is.. it's not "on ramp to off ramp" automated driving. Which as far as I know isn't legal in any state and likely won't be for quite some time.
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Tesla's Supercharger Team was recently laid off. We discuss what this means for the company on today's TMC Podcast streaming live at 1PM PDT. You can watch on X or on YouTube where you can participate in the live chat.
About time to unveil the D and something else
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MichiganmodelS can certainly speak for himself/correct me if I am wrong: I do not think he is arguing about the legality of the system but that EM will demostrate that the technology is in the model X that makes it possible. The hardware will be in the car when it is released but it will need a firmware release to enable it's use. This firmware release will happen once it is legal.
Hank, have you seen this one minute clip CNN put out Thursday (date of interview unspecified)
Elon Musk: Tesla 90% autonomous in 2015 - Video - Technology - Innovation Nation
I don't know the legal status of all of this, and it may come to wording and warnings that this is not a replacement for an alert driver at the wheel, but Elon sounds quite confident that this is much closer to ready for 2015 than 5-6 years out (that comment in Japan was referring to tech for 100% autonomous driving, and Elon has repeatedly said it's the edge cases that take the most work. so 90% of miles possible in 2015 seems consistent with 100% possible in 5-6 years).
So, I wouldn't say I know this is ready for 2015, but I'm pretty confident 2015 or thereabouts. Valid point though that technically ready and legal to roll out are two separate hurdles.
You are referring to self-driving vehicles. I agree with you on that point.
The disconnect is definition. The 100% autonomous or "self-driving" car is 5 to 6 years away (according to Elon). Autopilot or any technology were the "operator" monitors or operates the motor vehicle is possible and legal today.
Tesla's vehicles will have autopilot, not automatic mode (i.e., self-driving). Meaning when the Tesla steers or brakes, it is monitored and "controlled" by the operator (i.e., driver). To "control " the motor vehicle , the "operator" must have at least one hand on the steering wheel (among other criteria).
Tesla's technology will comply with current laws and insurance industry standards because the operator of the vehicle will have control and monitor the vehicle at all times. That is when a Tesla goes on ramp to off ramp, the operator is responsible for the monitor and control of the vehicle.
4 states (Michigan, California, Florida and Nevada) have passed legislature to allow testing of 100% self-driving or fully autonomous technology. The introduction of auto-pilot (on ramp to off ramp) next year does not require this legislation or any additional legislation. If fact, states specifically differentiate auto-pilot from "automatic mode" in this self-driving technology category:
Here is Michigan's legislative language (the same is in California, Florida, and Nevada's laws).
Sec. 2b. (1) “Automated motor vehicle” means a motor vehicle on which automated technology has been installed, either by a manufacturer of automated technology or an upfitter that enables the motor vehicle to be operated without any control or monitoring by a human operator. Automated motor vehicle does not include a motor vehicle enabled with 1 or more active safety systems or operator assistance systems, including, but not limited to, a system to provide electronic blind spot assistance, crash avoidance, emergency braking, parking assistance, adaptive cruise control, lane‐keeping assistance, lane departure warning, or traffic jam and queuing assistance, unless 1 or more of these technologies alone or in combination with other systems enable the vehicle on which the technology is installed to operate without any control or monitoring by an operator.
http://www.legislature.mi.gov/documents/2013-2014/publicact/pdf/2013-PA-0231.pdf
No, I do not think Elon is magical. I believe his role is pushing the adoption of existing technology into the main stream automotive world. Technology that exists in other automotive companies (and vehicles) and technology developed outside of Tesla. Just as he is pushing the gigafactory (moving Panasonic forward at a faster pace then they traditionally move), Elon is pushing assistive driving technologies into the main stream.
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Isn't adaptive cruise + emergency braking + lane hold pretty much all you need?
After that, there's only lane change... and I wouldn't be too surprised if this is possible.
islandbayy
Active Member
i wonder how much retrofits will cost 
I suppose I could take out a second and third Mortgage.... I hope they take Amex for the retrofits
I suppose I could take out a second and third Mortgage.... I hope they take Amex for the retrofits 
ModelS1079
Member
I'll place my bet and be precise:
On Oct 9th, He will announce:
Dual Drive version of Model S = Model S D85.
MBLY Advanced Driver Assistance w Lane Hold, Adaptive Cruise, and emergency braking in slow traffic, and in reverse.
Both the S and X on stage, with the new D85 Model S in the Center, noting that the MBLY tech is available for the X as 2WD S as well. Adaptive Cruise may be standard.
Colors: The S in Red, The D85 in Blue, The X in...Silver.
They will not reveal the Model 3 - that is a huge, separate reveal, around February.
So, hold me accountable for these predictions the morning of October 10th...Ha!
On Oct 9th, He will announce:
Dual Drive version of Model S = Model S D85.
MBLY Advanced Driver Assistance w Lane Hold, Adaptive Cruise, and emergency braking in slow traffic, and in reverse.
Both the S and X on stage, with the new D85 Model S in the Center, noting that the MBLY tech is available for the X as 2WD S as well. Adaptive Cruise may be standard.
Colors: The S in Red, The D85 in Blue, The X in...Silver.
They will not reveal the Model 3 - that is a huge, separate reveal, around February.
So, hold me accountable for these predictions the morning of October 10th...Ha!
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Agree but IMO the S won't be present since the event of Oct 9th is concerning something new. Than IMO the D85 will be white pearl.
HankLloydRight
No Roads
Sooo.. you're equating "on-ramp to off-ramp" with "driver assist"? Basically what mobile-eye already does, with lane hold or lane departure warning (same thing, really), ACC, and emergency braking? Yeah, all those things sound great and easily doable (or already being done by other car makers). Tesla is just playing catch-up in this space.
How can "On-ramp to off-ramp" not mean (or imply) autonomous driving?
Unless it means "On-ramp to off-ramp with a little help from the car".
Sooo.. you're equating "on-ramp to off-ramp" with "driver assist"? Basically what mobile-eye already does, with lane hold or lane departure warning (same thing, really), ACC, and emergency braking? Yeah, all those things sound great and easily doable (or already being done by other car makers). Tesla is just playing catch-up in this space.
How can "On-ramp to off-ramp" not mean (or imply) autonomous driving?
Unless it means "On-ramp to off-ramp with a little help from the car".
Autonomous driving, IMO, means hop in the back seat, take out your book and tell the car to take you somewhere.
This is dramatically different from the driver assist technologies and is what Elon was referring to when he said 5-6 years.
Sooo.. you're equating "on-ramp to off-ramp" with "driver assist"? Basically what mobile-eye already does, with lane hold or lane departure warning (same thing, really), ACC, and emergency braking? Yeah, all those things sound great and easily doable (or already being done by other car makers). Tesla is just playing catch-up in this space.
How can "On-ramp to off-ramp" not mean (or imply) autonomous driving?
Unless it means "On-ramp to off-ramp with a little help from the car".
You're answering your own question. If Tesla wants their vehicles on the road without additional legislation, it can not be 100% autonomous. So, let's say the car is say, 90% autonomous and requires the operator (I.e.,driver) to operate and monitor the vehicle, these cars will be on the road.
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Correct.
Sooo.. you're equating "on-ramp to off-ramp" with "driver assist"? Basically what mobile-eye already does, with lane hold or lane departure warning (same thing, really), ACC, and emergency braking? Yeah, all those things sound great and easily doable (or already being done by other car makers). Tesla is just playing catch-up in this space.
How can "On-ramp to off-ramp" not mean (or imply) autonomous driving?
Unless it means "On-ramp to off-ramp with a little help from the car".
The difference is that autopilot drives the car but expects the meatbag to be monitoring ready to take over if it gets a bit complicated. On-ramp to off-ramp should really also do simple overtaking, but I don't expect it will. What I really hope from Tesla is to provide a stream of information to keep the driver's attention. Have the system let the driver know what it's thinking.
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HankLloydRight
No Roads
And how many days until some moron turns on "autopilot" and assumes that means "auto drive" and kills 3 people?
A very large number, since it'll require a hand on the wheel, and I would also expect it to be watching your eyes. although I doubt the car will be as, er, firm in informing the driver as it should be.
HankLloydRight
No Roads
See, even 10% meatbag is not autonomous. Autonomous is binary, either it is autonomous, or it isn't.
What does "90%" autonomous mean anyway? 90% of the drive time, without assistance from the driver, the car is staying in it's own lane, and maintaining proper speed relative to traffic, and may be able to stop the car in case of emergency ahead. I think that pretty much covers it.
But even if that's what "90% autonomous" means, the meatbag still has to be "driving" 100% of the time. That's not autonomous. That's just helping.
If we're actually talking about advanced Driver Assist technologies to do all those things, great. And if Tesla is pushing the envelope on adoption of those, also great. But it's not "autonomous", even at 90%.
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au·ton·o·mous
adjective\ȯ-ˈtä-nə-məs\: existing or acting separately from other things or people
: having the power or right to govern itself
It depends on what portion of the trip you are referencing. The auto industry refer to 100% of the trip. The 10.00% would be inputing coordinates as to the location and the car going from point A to point B completely uninterrupted and without any operator intervention. No one is there now. If the operator enters the vehicle and sends the car in motion and then turns on automatic mode, 1) the entire trip is not autonomous by definition and 2) only four states will allow this technology for testing because "Automatic Mode" means the mode of operating an automated motor vehicle when automated technology is engaged to enable the motor vehicle to operated without any control or monitoring by an operator. And no states will allow a vehicle to have "Automatic Mode" without additional legislation (for legal and liability reasons, which you identified at the on set of this conversation). Also, be careful with your "binary" mindset, cars have autonomous parallel parking, the car parks itself. This is considered an autonomous feature. Not 100% of the trip was autonomous, but a percentage was operated without operator intervention. There are aspects of a trip that satisfy your definition, but the entire trip does not need to be "autonomous."
Currently, no manufacturer will say their technology (or vehicle) will replace the operator or their technology will operate the vehicle without any control or monitoring by an operator. These technologies require operator intervention at some point in time, which is how you get to less than 100%
HankLloydRight
No Roads
Great debate! I would add that I believe that ' on ramp to off ramp' means that once you enter the freeway and put the car in a lane and set the ACC that the car would be capable of taking you to your 'off ramp' vicinity with no further driver assistance. It would keep you in one lane, break and accelerate as needed to maintain your ACC setting.
